| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.931014256544288 |
| beta | 0.206391957488703 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 299.5 | 239.394497863248 | 60.105502136752 |
| 14 | 347.4 | 351.546379551372 | -4.14637955137209 |
| 15 | 338.3 | 347.761267230222 | -9.46126723022172 |
| 16 | 327.7 | 334.364066404668 | -6.66406640466812 |
| 17 | 351.6 | 356.944740044102 | -5.34474004410174 |
| 18 | 396.6 | 403.143379598236 | -6.54337959823573 |
| 19 | 438.8 | 386.106233025412 | 52.6937669745876 |
| 20 | 395.6 | 440.036691546718 | -44.4366915467175 |
| 21 | 363.5 | 394.211126862163 | -30.7111268621633 |
| 22 | 378.8 | 340.717163831117 | 38.0828361688831 |
| 23 | 357 | 415.401624919934 | -58.4016249199345 |
| 24 | 369 | 374.768913175063 | -5.76891317506329 |
| 25 | 464.8 | 445.996743604339 | 18.8032563956606 |
| 26 | 479.1 | 503.369179174461 | -24.2691791744608 |
| 27 | 431.3 | 464.722125847542 | -33.4221258475416 |
| 28 | 366.5 | 408.845143482560 | -42.3451434825595 |
| 29 | 326.3 | 371.076136331253 | -44.7761363312532 |
| 30 | 355.1 | 345.6828958946 | 9.4171041053998 |
| 31 | 331.6 | 315.860575405554 | 15.7394245944456 |
| 32 | 261.3 | 289.853347712182 | -28.5533477121820 |
| 33 | 249 | 223.982266884870 | 25.0177331151295 |
| 34 | 205.5 | 202.046980971670 | 3.4530190283304 |
| 35 | 235.6 | 206.108794757452 | 29.4912052425480 |
| 36 | 240.9 | 236.099672258271 | 4.80032774172892 |
| 37 | 264.9 | 306.056870999756 | -41.1568709997564 |
| 38 | 253.8 | 280.306744485138 | -26.506744485138 |
| 39 | 232.3 | 214.187661657891 | 18.1123383421087 |
| 40 | 193.8 | 190.819583638426 | 2.98041636157421 |
| 41 | 177 | 188.936240573508 | -11.9362405735080 |
| 42 | 213.2 | 198.02091035018 | 15.1790896498201 |
| 43 | 207.2 | 175.271356359930 | 31.9286436400704 |
| 44 | 180.6 | 165.663899251459 | 14.9361007485408 |
| 45 | 188.6 | 156.7173676347 | 31.8826323652999 |
| 46 | 175.4 | 153.744471659366 | 21.6555283406338 |
| 47 | 199 | 194.105755786364 | 4.89424421363597 |
| 48 | 179.6 | 212.323203513490 | -32.7232035134896 |
| 49 | 225.8 | 249.794787152436 | -23.9947871524365 |
| 50 | 234 | 249.950934783951 | -15.9509347839508 |
| 51 | 200.2 | 207.683360947197 | -7.48336094719704 |
| 52 | 183.6 | 165.468941877368 | 18.131058122632 |
| 53 | 178.2 | 185.600786619152 | -7.40078661915223 |
| 54 | 203.2 | 210.588865862496 | -7.38886586249606 |
| 55 | 208.5 | 173.457450296597 | 35.0425497034026 |
| 56 | 191.8 | 171.648936288595 | 20.1510637114047 |
| 57 | 172.8 | 175.800849222989 | -3.00084922298859 |
| 58 | 148 | 140.016585341255 | 7.98341465874466 |
| 59 | 159.4 | 164.236672863252 | -4.83667286325192 |
| 60 | 154.5 | 166.673623033259 | -12.1736230332594 |
| 61 | 213.2 | 223.702169031232 | -10.5021690312323 |
| 62 | 196.4 | 239.39057988577 | -42.9905798857699 |
| 63 | 182.8 | 169.752613061597 | 13.0473869384029 |
| 64 | 176.4 | 149.584465280711 | 26.8155347192886 |
| 65 | 153.6 | 178.873926475988 | -25.2739264759875 |
| 66 | 173.2 | 186.621865566447 | -13.4218655664472 |
| 67 | 171 | 145.040725366441 | 25.9592746335586 |
| 68 | 151.2 | 130.242787571883 | 20.9572124281166 |
| 69 | 161.9 | 130.197524143635 | 31.7024758563652 |
| 70 | 157.2 | 130.798125576262 | 26.4018744237381 |
| 71 | 201.7 | 178.13865380437 | 23.5613461956299 |
| 72 | 236.4 | 218.822203796322 | 17.577796203678 |
| 73 | 356.1 | 321.695685829852 | 34.4043141701481 |
| 74 | 398.3 | 403.611023511471 | -5.31102351147098 |
| 75 | 403.7 | 406.818941593635 | -3.1189415936347 |
| 76 | 384.6 | 403.342954976271 | -18.7429549762708 |
| 77 | 365.8 | 408.662580727233 | -42.8625807272334 |
| 78 | 368.1 | 419.512325649181 | -51.4123256491812 |
| 79 | 367.9 | 356.637719841075 | 11.2622801589251 |
| 80 | 347 | 336.346972645868 | 10.6530273541316 |
| 81 | 343.3 | 334.005020078399 | 9.29497992160105 |
| 82 | 292.9 | 315.627954770634 | -22.7279547706338 |
| 83 | 311.5 | 309.841166936280 | 1.65883306372035 |
| 84 | 300.9 | 318.320944264907 | -17.420944264907 |
| 85 | 366.9 | 371.646305877894 | -4.74630587789386 |
| 86 | 356.9 | 388.724539548477 | -31.8245395484767 |
| 87 | 329.7 | 336.657017800339 | -6.95701780033909 |
| 88 | 316.2 | 297.050191389958 | 19.1498086100416 |
| 89 | 269 | 311.786148591763 | -42.7861485917631 |
| 90 | 289.3 | 297.933467787587 | -8.633467787587 |
| 91 | 266.2 | 263.246590625195 | 2.95340937480455 |
| 92 | 253.6 | 217.617902786234 | 35.9820972137661 |
| 93 | 233.8 | 226.070834134544 | 7.72916586545617 |
| 94 | 228.4 | 191.032815136388 | 37.3671848636118 |
| 95 | 253.6 | 241.431279955095 | 12.1687200449046 |
| 96 | 260.1 | 258.952674786756 | 1.14732521324379 |
| 97 | 306.6 | 334.580689426555 | -27.9806894265545 |
| 98 | 309.2 | 327.835752397094 | -18.6357523970942 |
| 99 | 309.5 | 291.973343988169 | 17.5266560118306 |
| 100 | 271 | 283.877458081835 | -12.8774580818352 |
| 101 | 279.9 | 265.284004888885 | 14.6159951111154 |
| 102 | 317.9 | 319.020759041934 | -1.12075904193443 |
| 103 | 298.4 | 305.362418845651 | -6.96241884565143 |
| 104 | 246.7 | 264.109866220531 | -17.4098662205309 |
| 105 | 227.3 | 221.975001427004 | 5.32499857299592 |
| 106 | 209.1 | 187.351231640874 | 21.7487683591257 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 107 | 219.077216722963 | 170.752129011988 | 267.402304433938 |
| 108 | 219.777597650389 | 147.104849866391 | 292.450345434387 |
| 109 | 287.376112509797 | 190.827733352295 | 383.924491667299 |
| 110 | 307.750955103168 | 186.80240432511 | 428.699505881226 |
| 111 | 295.739011578135 | 149.53822630925 | 441.93979684702 |
| 112 | 269.865917216459 | 97.4350712451952 | 442.296763187724 |
| 113 | 268.270479181712 | 68.5852591143745 | 467.955699249049 |
| 114 | 307.617663811998 | 79.6428952150977 | 535.592432408898 |
| 115 | 295.118875171702 | 37.8257063089802 | 552.412044034423 |
| 116 | 261.484664602242 | -26.1409255037481 | 549.110254708233 |
| 117 | 242.329343696241 | -76.6237331483823 | 561.282420540865 |
| 118 | 208.060039970237 | -143.194830840926 | 559.3149107814 |
