| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 235.1 | 235.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 280.7 | 277.878649536573 | 2.33022608678283 | 2.82135046342714 | 0.970748348648947 |
| 3 | 264.6 | 263.743201274697 | 2.18084966922926 | 0.85679872530267 | -0.619229234750829 |
| 4 | 240.7 | 239.843378150505 | 2.0815634288272 | 0.856621849495357 | -0.981939970825554 |
| 5 | 201.4 | 201.376289167257 | 1.90925115385391 | 0.0237108327428216 | -1.52650067638383 |
| 6 | 240.8 | 235.974497326326 | 2.05192202951772 | 4.82550267367366 | 1.23060003543256 |
| 7 | 241.1 | 239.611900809375 | 2.05881381332922 | 1.48809919062534 | 0.0596862597994536 |
| 8 | 223.8 | 222.969036673038 | 1.97791860145171 | 0.83096332696227 | -0.704028345304963 |
| 9 | 206.1 | 205.015335290125 | 1.89207865600455 | 1.08466470987538 | -0.750323320077933 |
| 10 | 174.7 | 174.474496218974 | 1.75299707805328 | 0.225503781025959 | -1.22092274127319 |
| 11 | 203.3 | 199.406487485646 | 1.85197091703577 | 3.89351251435443 | 0.872555580311552 |
| 12 | 220.5 | 218.047660285345 | 1.92335565800283 | 2.45233971465474 | 0.632011451096794 |
| 13 | 299.5 | 287.629602259823 | -0.867602489607616 | 11.8703977401772 | 3.03148776271513 |
| 14 | 347.4 | 342.965472625557 | 0.379012023382487 | 4.43452737444339 | 1.83263819796448 |
| 15 | 338.3 | 340.469015585803 | 0.356887296458952 | -2.16901558580277 | -0.107635272395743 |
| 16 | 327.7 | 327.227278125238 | 0.327181955037726 | 0.472721874762107 | -0.511563789044118 |
| 17 | 351.6 | 352.007723883346 | 0.377447255130508 | -0.407723883345728 | 0.9196677598882 |
| 18 | 396.6 | 390.645102098502 | 0.464642618464707 | 5.95489790149776 | 1.43887172529361 |
| 19 | 438.8 | 434.95530607745 | 0.566195806126585 | 3.84469392254984 | 1.64893554230362 |
| 20 | 395.6 | 400.644505699201 | 0.485738158637949 | -5.04450569920147 | -1.31164670295768 |
| 21 | 363.5 | 364.386511530268 | 0.401243320369816 | -0.886511530267548 | -1.38184677146244 |
| 22 | 378.8 | 378.138358893504 | 0.432566081018395 | 0.661641106496241 | 0.502108429645941 |
| 23 | 357 | 356.83455297695 | 0.377587347438291 | 0.16544702304971 | -0.817690266447621 |
| 24 | 369 | 369.985331560909 | 0.384746367573487 | -0.985331560909166 | 0.479963011744462 |
| 25 | 464.8 | 448.359782102865 | -0.952611107170525 | 16.4402178971346 | 3.16072755887902 |
| 26 | 479.1 | 473.976014820179 | -0.617455535088952 | 5.12398517982118 | 0.929711541026138 |
| 27 | 431.3 | 438.537263291325 | -0.866908056398829 | -7.23726329132483 | -1.29881299324509 |
| 28 | 366.5 | 375.533102786943 | -1.00552791824276 | -9.0331027869426 | -2.33722465655691 |
| 29 | 326.3 | 333.857846689265 | -1.066383287159 | -7.55784668926473 | -1.52925385263982 |
| 30 | 355.1 | 351.448844508518 | -1.03502990168687 | 3.65115549148218 | 0.701489228820092 |
| 31 | 331.6 | 329.787635939933 | -1.07166722425051 | 1.8123640600669 | -0.775501364074007 |
| 32 | 261.3 | 271.108918949166 | -1.1744235245023 | -9.80891894916622 | -2.16590539741366 |
| 33 | 249 | 253.018497675771 | -1.20483220310683 | -4.01849767577088 | -0.636017003299866 |
| 34 | 205.5 | 208.403384406243 | -1.28805219859473 | -2.90338440624275 | -1.63238768937127 |
| 35 | 235.6 | 231.999772538107 | -1.24067804178706 | 3.60022746189321 | 0.935879152931365 |
| 36 | 240.9 | 247.823166255779 | -1.25510060519951 | -6.92316625577877 | 0.641295741386453 |
| 37 | 264.9 | 250.284097820484 | -1.29051061456061 | 14.615902179516 | 0.145382946982042 |
| 38 | 253.8 | 245.692123336567 | -1.31726964778724 | 8.10787666343303 | -0.119002213600224 |
| 39 | 232.3 | 234.817945248688 | -1.37958959139681 | -2.51794524868753 | -0.355772478318949 |
| 40 | 193.8 | 202.73398965515 | -1.45637101285456 | -8.93398965515026 | -1.15465544133388 |
| 41 | 177 | 188.624602298952 | -1.47351848902422 | -11.6246022989522 | -0.475763129355498 |
| 42 | 213.2 | 205.590093773085 | -1.44780599933543 | 7.6099062269151 | 0.693221143161009 |
| 43 | 207.2 | 200.916254522455 | -1.45270184190174 | 6.28374547754533 | -0.121278642607948 |
| 44 | 180.6 | 190.481928935706 | -1.46672383207795 | -9.88192893570593 | -0.337652686755762 |
| 45 | 188.6 | 187.405599926681 | -1.46932769193819 | 1.19440007331936 | -0.0605145835274915 |
| 46 | 175.4 | 181.478623112595 | -1.47708960647708 | -6.0786231125948 | -0.167622094603992 |
| 47 | 199 | 195.241497517955 | -1.45565689979554 | 3.75850248204536 | 0.572988137806708 |
| 48 | 179.6 | 188.219680779707 | -1.44789933366152 | -8.61968077970726 | -0.209318719590888 |
| 49 | 225.8 | 206.751333517532 | -1.56449601737826 | 19.0486664824682 | 0.76848762703954 |
| 50 | 234 | 223.065580606754 | -1.46393011603634 | 10.9344193932461 | 0.654219739057499 |
| 51 | 200.2 | 202.505629378843 | -1.5752420285696 | -2.30562937884331 | -0.710437435101487 |
| 52 | 183.6 | 191.981438357092 | -1.59960093301114 | -8.38143835709222 | -0.336396421379105 |
| 53 | 178.2 | 191.742035793182 | -1.59772695531059 | -13.5420357931817 | 0.0511454674329914 |
| 54 | 203.2 | 194.723135870074 | -1.5920310205765 | 8.47686412992587 | 0.172138421528538 |
| 55 | 208.5 | 200.365893371415 | -1.58221727827831 | 8.1341066285847 | 0.271968796776699 |
| 56 | 191.8 | 201.385859883033 | -1.57846597785625 | -9.58585988303333 | 0.0978210181111924 |
| 57 | 172.8 | 174.801385503025 | -1.61687907579335 | -2.0013855030251 | -0.94011818207454 |
| 58 | 148 | 157.444426450243 | -1.64202614145225 | -9.44442645024321 | -0.591867426850214 |
| 59 | 159.4 | 154.281024677452 | -1.64353955016627 | 5.11897532254839 | -0.05718434529103 |
| 60 | 154.5 | 163.548671082677 | -1.66014566532345 | -9.04867108267693 | 0.410530171528305 |
| 61 | 213.2 | 191.453647226868 | -1.77065708224 | 21.7463527731316 | 1.12670176747893 |
| 62 | 196.4 | 184.13384785248 | -1.79371329765566 | 12.2661521475203 | -0.204759501229022 |
| 63 | 182.8 | 183.950128304675 | -1.78538970014308 | -1.15012830467451 | 0.0599079372382813 |
| 64 | 176.4 | 184.777272933263 | -1.77795238124193 | -8.37727293326292 | 0.098158498217201 |
| 65 | 153.6 | 169.995333661313 | -1.79693020877862 | -16.3953336613133 | -0.488973239178999 |
| 66 | 173.2 | 166.174348658389 | -1.79930520880372 | 7.02565134161057 | -0.0760932744058476 |
| 67 | 171 | 163.703920548511 | -1.80014433729132 | 7.29607945148886 | -0.0252282899401596 |
| 68 | 151.2 | 158.363313219096 | -1.8049783523128 | -7.16331321909565 | -0.133091170537747 |
| 69 | 161.9 | 161.084654800455 | -1.79829505457864 | 0.815345199544675 | 0.170172419764591 |
| 70 | 157.2 | 165.404042147141 | -1.7894361735729 | -8.2040421471406 | 0.230027221234123 |
| 71 | 201.7 | 193.64076153313 | -1.76905073540438 | 8.05923846686976 | 1.12837708005752 |
| 72 | 236.4 | 242.357316357528 | -1.84218716255518 | -5.9573163575282 | 1.89996872062642 |
| 73 | 356.1 | 321.962822594572 | -2.04124571259702 | 34.1371774054281 | 3.0871749406237 |
| 74 | 398.3 | 380.247061482248 | -1.8457739322112 | 18.0529385177524 | 2.23698639182873 |
| 75 | 403.7 | 404.093269659919 | -1.72805764323721 | -0.393269659918639 | 0.956553297653652 |
| 76 | 384.6 | 394.192245057296 | -1.75164779243467 | -9.59224505729585 | -0.306924442566173 |
| 77 | 365.8 | 383.64743087803 | -1.7652989272544 | -17.8474308780302 | -0.330630189545905 |
| 78 | 368.1 | 363.499426790646 | -1.78649870763394 | 4.60057320935429 | -0.691096792250607 |
| 79 | 367.9 | 359.562989573822 | -1.7890423886293 | 8.33701042617826 | -0.0808190585594544 |
| 80 | 347 | 354.186281296983 | -1.79373729535243 | -7.18628129698305 | -0.134867054357131 |
| 81 | 343.3 | 343.178264442168 | -1.80676276256205 | 0.1217355578317 | -0.346425836382056 |
| 82 | 292.9 | 308.174409905557 | -1.84979303894569 | -15.2744099055567 | -1.24811184619951 |
| 83 | 311.5 | 307.705355012032 | -1.84916979451824 | 3.79464498796783 | 0.051881815665856 |
| 84 | 300.9 | 315.245207649637 | -1.8612639467077 | -14.3452076496372 | 0.35335393291527 |
| 85 | 366.9 | 337.609473280529 | -1.900080853347 | 29.2905267194715 | 0.915205323162074 |
| 86 | 356.9 | 342.01444749463 | -1.88338332594053 | 14.8855525053701 | 0.234522439617019 |
| 87 | 329.7 | 331.051109104116 | -1.92038162825464 | -1.35110910411592 | -0.338309090180236 |
| 88 | 316.2 | 325.503761752541 | -1.93076967531457 | -9.30376175254145 | -0.136146005445651 |
| 89 | 269 | 289.897988238813 | -1.98587549698718 | -20.8979882388133 | -1.26612605691273 |
| 90 | 289.3 | 284.622530832517 | -1.9897040217129 | 4.67746916748271 | -0.12367364430659 |
| 91 | 266.2 | 260.825155134065 | -2.01465127045557 | 5.37484486593492 | -0.819794525928847 |
| 92 | 253.6 | 259.007992389454 | -2.01440222402308 | -5.40799238945414 | 0.00742412733846554 |
| 93 | 233.8 | 232.74850371286 | -2.04695796123112 | 1.05149628713982 | -0.911534056284188 |
| 94 | 228.4 | 241.458219853056 | -2.03457831649602 | -13.0582198530556 | 0.404377419767221 |
| 95 | 253.6 | 249.498750452866 | -2.03160172875014 | 4.10124954713387 | 0.378554512134653 |
| 96 | 260.1 | 273.67771583308 | -2.06040113380946 | -13.57771583308 | 0.986316516776123 |
| 97 | 306.6 | 277.599488427056 | -2.06657678634736 | 29.0005115729439 | 0.225522500113115 |
| 98 | 309.2 | 291.290720004724 | -2.03110641772116 | 17.9092799952763 | 0.587299970662815 |
| 99 | 309.5 | 308.27352349758 | -1.96179904329962 | 1.22647650242031 | 0.708971826909975 |
| 100 | 271 | 280.763372675471 | -2.03337485435866 | -9.76337267547105 | -0.958668298741562 |
| 101 | 279.9 | 297.412273662904 | -2.001546887085 | -17.512273662904 | 0.70235667542396 |
| 102 | 317.9 | 308.755261491531 | -1.9856489468385 | 9.14473850846849 | 0.501702270033072 |
| 103 | 298.4 | 294.937184155733 | -1.99894854781884 | 3.46281584426708 | -0.444816503816065 |
| 104 | 246.7 | 254.435782600903 | -2.04585833959804 | -7.73578260090311 | -1.44744849988057 |
| 105 | 227.3 | 229.938047964283 | -2.07429386159314 | -2.63804796428298 | -0.844105406239112 |
| 106 | 209.1 | 223.194361511141 | -2.07904842165478 | -14.0943615111413 | -0.175519482986977 |
