| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 644341.5432 | 554886.7996 | 748217.5186 | 0.2322 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 888572.7712 | 753538.836 | 1047804.7475 | 0.3054 | 0.9943 | 0.2113 | 0.6788 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1095424.8714 | 897356.6254 | 1337211.5555 | 0.4287 | 0.9779 | 0.2992 | 0.9763 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1404698.2947 | 1128917.1144 | 1747849.5755 | 0.2656 | 0.9708 | 0.5093 | 0.9992 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1523969.167 | 1197549.3249 | 1939362.3073 | 0.462 | 0.5181 | 0.2582 | 0.9993 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1429793.1955 | 1103415.0626 | 1852710.4179 | 0.359 | 0.3659 | 0.3806 | 0.9964 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2759212.4503 | 2091124.0958 | 3640746.7932 | 0.4064 | 0.9973 | 0.3614 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2600629.6396 | 1938904.641 | 3488193.4775 | 0.3394 | 0.2792 | 0.3495 | 0.9999 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1348453.0106 | 989548.0228 | 1837531.3575 | 0.4314 | 0 | 0.4072 | 0.9769 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1304722.4038 | 943294.7232 | 1804632.7505 | 0.4045 | 0.3667 | 0.3987 | 0.9624 |
| 71 | 946295 | 919160.8314 | 655085.1343 | 1289689.8277 | 0.4429 | 0.009 | 0.4052 | 0.6411 |
| 72 | 859626 | 829622.2636 | 583223.2181 | 1180119.5133 | 0.4334 | 0.2571 | 0.4528 | 0.4528 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0823 | 0.0602 | 0 | 1503613604.4312 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0914 | -0.0465 | 0.0534 | 1709720881.9617 | 1606667243.1965 | 40083.2539 |
| 63 | 0.1126 | -0.0202 | 0.0423 | 491458860.2322 | 1234931115.5417 | 35141.5867 |
| 64 | 0.1246 | 0.078 | 0.0512 | 12018233770.0875 | 3930756779.1781 | 62695.7477 |
| 65 | 0.1391 | -0.0133 | 0.0437 | 409461982.4108 | 3226497819.8247 | 56802.2695 |
| 66 | 0.1509 | 0.0545 | 0.0455 | 6071340101.5659 | 3700638200.1149 | 60832.871 |
| 67 | 0.163 | 0.0386 | 0.0445 | 11339172299.5834 | 4791857357.1818 | 69223.2429 |
| 68 | 0.1741 | 0.0721 | 0.0479 | 35155635143.4374 | 8587329580.4638 | 92667.8455 |
| 69 | 0.185 | 0.032 | 0.0462 | 1861317538.4316 | 7839994909.1269 | 88543.7457 |
| 70 | 0.1955 | 0.0473 | 0.0463 | 3801412545.5916 | 7436136672.7733 | 86233.037 |
| 71 | 0.2057 | 0.0295 | 0.0447 | 736263103.7946 | 6827057257.4116 | 82626.0084 |
| 72 | 0.2156 | 0.0362 | 0.044 | 900224196.8724 | 6333154502.3667 | 79581.119 |
