| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 655848.3261 | 554545.9601 | 765643.9602 | 0.3132 | 2e-04 | 0.6895 | 2e-04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 902140.6991 | 782596.1955 | 1030178.4709 | 0.2003 | 0.9996 | 0.2149 | 0.7838 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1144464.1511 | 1009281.6565 | 1288139.9139 | 0.1657 | 1 | 0.414 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1564789.2114 | 1406001.0367 | 1732070.6543 | 0.2772 | 1 | 0.9728 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1629402.9846 | 1467282.8157 | 1800016.4216 | 0.0744 | 0.9069 | 0.3561 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1561457.003 | 1402842.5114 | 1728564.7629 | 0.2642 | 0.7508 | 0.7809 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 3035400.9354 | 2812577.2089 | 3266717.9301 | 0.0752 | 1 | 0.8384 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2653088.4844 | 2445045.7304 | 2869624.5067 | 0.1108 | 0.0271 | 0.1336 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1388622.2121 | 1239285.3774 | 1546452.315 | 0.4853 | 0 | 0.4096 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1373836.5627 | 1225319.5724 | 1530846.8212 | 0.4629 | 0.4123 | 0.5181 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 975697.4112 | 851205.0856 | 1108683.005 | 0.3324 | 0 | 0.5654 | 0.9671 |
| 72 | 859626 | 872493.8192 | 755000.3687 | 998480.5381 | 0.4207 | 0.1255 | 0.6318 | 0.6318 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0854 | 0.0416 | 0 | 743635116.846 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0724 | -0.0609 | 0.0512 | 3015843845.4678 | 1879739481.1569 | 43355.9625 |
| 63 | 0.0641 | -0.0622 | 0.0549 | 5070600784.9743 | 2943359915.7627 | 54252.7411 |
| 64 | 0.0545 | -0.0322 | 0.0492 | 2546535701.6051 | 2844153862.2233 | 53330.6091 |
| 65 | 0.0534 | -0.0771 | 0.0548 | 15792693684.7999 | 5433861826.7386 | 73714.7328 |
| 66 | 0.0546 | -0.0344 | 0.0514 | 2888525352.2639 | 5009639080.9928 | 70778.8039 |
| 67 | 0.0389 | -0.0559 | 0.0521 | 28799086274.3172 | 8408131537.182 | 91695.8643 |
| 68 | 0.0416 | 0.0509 | 0.0519 | 18235670776.8149 | 9636573942.1361 | 98166.0529 |
| 69 | 0.058 | 0.0021 | 0.0464 | 8843414.6482 | 8566826105.7486 | 92557.1505 |
| 70 | 0.0583 | -0.0054 | 0.0423 | 55630156.9409 | 7715706510.8678 | 87839.0944 |
| 71 | 0.0695 | -0.0301 | 0.0412 | 864501782.1501 | 7092869717.348 | 84219.1767 |
| 72 | 0.0737 | -0.0147 | 0.039 | 165580771.0028 | 6515595638.4859 | 80719.2396 |
