Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 1.3031 | 1.3031 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.3241 | 1.32300800006159 | 0.00109199993705762 | 0.00109199993841378 | 0.284544909239405 |
3 | 1.2961 | 1.29512390443971 | 0.000976095560289192 | 0.00097609556028919 | -0.691139502135368 |
4 | 1.2865 | 1.28556587307044 | 0.000934126929555057 | 0.000934126929555057 | -0.251258608894471 |
5 | 1.2305 | 1.22979090913222 | 0.000709090867774892 | 0.000709090867774893 | -1.35260712073784 |
6 | 1.2101 | 1.20947401578439 | 0.000625984215611987 | 0.000625984215611988 | -0.501501141687857 |
7 | 1.2125 | 1.21186705886014 | 0.000632941139856673 | 0.000632941139856674 | 0.0421466676067974 |
8 | 1.235 | 1.23428164066636 | 0.000718359333637368 | 0.000718359333637367 | 0.519516656049798 |
9 | 1.2014 | 1.20081517513086 | 0.000584824869139562 | 0.00058482486913956 | -0.81534034466468 |
10 | 1.1992 | 1.19862596902509 | 0.00057403097491129 | 0.00057403097491129 | -0.0661627566561902 |
11 | 1.1791 | 1.17860579153399 | 0.000494208466012981 | 0.000494208466012981 | -0.491183905484689 |
12 | 1.1832 | 1.18269192310579 | 0.000508076894207854 | 0.000508076894207854 | 0.0856688263444004 |
13 | 1.2159 | 1.20932887166569 | -0.00059737530509003 | 0.00657112833430543 | 0.75293148809392 |
14 | 1.1922 | 1.19317399995478 | -0.000973999974556624 | -0.000973999954777134 | -0.315695399333558 |
15 | 1.2114 | 1.21233738654445 | -0.000937386544454878 | -0.000937386544454879 | 0.47979592591895 |
16 | 1.2614 | 1.26224510867252 | -0.000845108672518426 | -0.00084510867251843 | 1.21144001203051 |
17 | 1.2812 | 1.28200777574635 | -0.000807775746347255 | -0.000807775746347254 | 0.491001863969149 |
18 | 1.2786 | 1.2794110108081 | -0.000811010808098767 | -0.000811010808098766 | -0.0426244735224776 |
19 | 1.2772 | 1.27801207204986 | -0.000812072049860374 | -0.000812072049860374 | -0.0140079541182102 |
20 | 1.2815 | 1.28230287767589 | -0.000802877675891391 | -0.000802877675891392 | 0.121580816674373 |
21 | 1.2679 | 1.2687258527603 | -0.000825852760301605 | -0.000825852760301609 | -0.304355471633153 |
22 | 1.2765 | 1.27730896055146 | -0.000808960551459083 | -0.000808960551459083 | 0.224176530719851 |
23 | 1.3247 | 1.32542128799443 | -0.000721287994432987 | -0.00072128799443299 | 1.16558964720041 |
24 | 1.3191 | 1.31982999997995 | -0.000729999979948916 | -0.000729999979948914 | -0.116031542813216 |
25 | 1.3029 | 1.29917518364635 | -0.000338619668924149 | 0.00372481635365155 | -0.523037542810113 |
26 | 1.3234 | 1.32335776469896 | 4.22352932610852e-05 | 4.22353010408676e-05 | 0.530589056506489 |
27 | 1.3354 | 1.33534371327902 | 5.62867209832501e-05 | 5.6286720983248e-05 | 0.284481271817941 |
28 | 1.3651 | 1.36500892018877 | 9.10798112281102e-05 | 9.10798112281042e-05 | 0.705239422293093 |
29 | 1.3453 | 1.34523223915659 | 6.77608434091449e-05 | 6.77608434091454e-05 | -0.473219504090004 |
30 | 1.3534 | 1.35332283372445 | 7.716627555324e-05 | 7.716627555324e-05 | 0.191091427839903 |
31 | 1.3706 | 1.3705028070186 | 9.71929814008855e-05 | 9.71929814008849e-05 | 0.407361997632161 |
32 | 1.3638 | 1.36371086448693 | 8.91355130702872e-05 | 8.91355130702862e-05 | -0.164088274049579 |
33 | 1.4268 | 1.42663745624462 | 0.000162543755384467 | 0.000162543755384465 | 1.49668745598011 |
34 | 1.4485 | 1.44831235431459 | 0.000187645685411225 | 0.000187645685411226 | 0.512389438658394 |
35 | 1.4635 | 1.46329511059617 | 0.000204889403829276 | 0.000204889403829273 | 0.352395333095917 |
36 | 1.4587 | 1.45850093023494 | 0.000199069765063544 | 0.000199069765063544 | -0.119069583823409 |
37 | 1.4876 | 1.48595504590463 | -0.000149541281504454 | 0.00164495409537356 | 0.692932912639914 |
38 | 1.5189 | 1.51867373912774 | 0.000226260866536672 | 0.000226260872255575 | 0.730900620931029 |
39 | 1.5783 | 1.57802232841095 | 0.000277671589046375 | 0.000277671589046374 | 1.40798901159727 |
40 | 1.5633 | 1.56303559027856 | 0.000264409721441423 | 0.000264409721441418 | -0.363519394857206 |
41 | 1.5554 | 1.55514267129301 | 0.000257328706988951 | 0.000257328706988951 | -0.194265361851859 |
42 | 1.5757 | 1.57542530329375 | 0.000274696706253584 | 0.000274696706253585 | 0.476898929435036 |
43 | 1.5593 | 1.55903974026049 | 0.000260259739510269 | 0.000260259739510268 | -0.396760884678923 |
44 | 1.466 | 1.46582067474066 | 0.000179325259337654 | 0.000179325259337662 | -2.22619133601994 |
45 | 1.4065 | 1.40637225583387 | 0.000127744166132186 | 0.000127744166132181 | -1.4200222072003 |
46 | 1.2759 | 1.27588514680386 | 1.48531961446394e-05 | 1.485319614464e-05 | -3.11056414166282 |
47 | 1.2705 | 1.27048981880831 | 1.01811916942101e-05 | 1.01811916942064e-05 | -0.128842232932366 |
48 | 1.3954 | 1.39528215517216 | 0.000117844827841088 | 0.000117844827841085 | 2.97165750065224 |
49 | 1.2793 | 1.29144035896482 | 0.00110366899876624 | -0.0121403589648204 | -2.60057471451443 |
50 | 1.2694 | 1.26851372416855 | 0.000886275856451274 | 0.000886275831450488 | -0.542525372398785 |
51 | 1.3282 | 1.32727381116801 | 0.000926188831985596 | 0.000926188831985596 | 1.37813188896661 |
52 | 1.323 | 1.32207803030632 | 0.000921969693683733 | 0.000921969693683727 | -0.145780612842954 |
53 | 1.4135 | 1.41251637990711 | 0.000983620092890857 | 0.00098362009289086 | 2.13162597667844 |
54 | 1.4042 | 1.40322345254814 | 0.000976547451856984 | 0.000976547451856987 | -0.244712200534846 |
55 | 1.4253 | 1.4243096219966 | 0.000990378003396628 | 0.000990378003396627 | 0.478864006604029 |
56 | 1.4322 | 1.4312055631903 | 0.000994436809701294 | 0.000994436809701295 | 0.140627257097516 |
57 | 1.4632 | 1.46218496911816 | 0.00101503088183856 | 0.00101503088183856 | 0.714022156876081 |
58 | 1.4713 | 1.47028010974292 | 0.0010198902570771 | 0.0010198902570771 | 0.168596272983934 |
59 | 1.5016 | 1.50056004112767 | 0.00103995887233332 | 0.00103995887233332 | 0.696759358298355 |
60 | 1.4318 | 1.4308085616473 | 0.00099143835269702 | 0.000991438352697016 | -1.68573192903972 |