Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[284])
272	77.0383	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
273	69.9981	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
274	55.2039	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
275	43.1188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
276	32.077	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
277	34.2974	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
278	34.5613	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
279	36.5235	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
280	39.0474	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
281	42.8033	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
282	49.5164	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
283	46.459	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
284	51.1313	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
285	46.9331	52.3946	41.2191	68.3192	0.2507	0.5618	0.0151	0.5618
286	49.7654	52.7154	36.2562	81.8824	0.4214	0.6512	0.4336	0.5424
287	52.0729	52.7956	32.8561	94.8481	0.4866	0.5562	0.674	0.5309
288	51.6425	52.8156	30.343	107.7694	0.4833	0.5106	0.7702	0.524
289	53.9784	52.8205	28.3719	121.0149	0.4867	0.5135	0.7028	0.5194
290	54.4891	52.8218	26.7588	134.8399	0.4841	0.489	0.6687	0.5161
291	59.0665	52.8221	25.398	149.4411	0.4496	0.4865	0.6295	0.5137
292	63.9929	52.8221	24.2245	164.9884	0.4226	0.4566	0.5951	0.5118
293	61.6167	52.8222	23.1953	181.6429	0.4468	0.4325	0.5606	0.5103
294	62.1816	52.8222	22.2808	199.5679	0.4503	0.4532	0.5176	0.509
295	58.9178	52.8222	21.4597	218.9355	0.4713	0.456	0.5299	0.508
296	59.9151	52.8222	20.7162	239.9328	0.4704	0.4745	0.5071	0.5071

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
285	0.1551	-0.1042	0	29.8275	0	0
286	0.2823	-0.056	0.0801	8.7025	19.265	4.3892
287	0.4064	-0.0137	0.058	0.5223	13.0174	3.608
288	0.5309	-0.0222	0.049	1.3761	10.1071	3.1792
289	0.6587	0.0219	0.0436	1.3407	8.3538	2.8903
290	0.7922	0.0316	0.0416	2.78	7.4248	2.7249
291	0.9332	0.1182	0.0525	38.9929	11.9346	3.4546
292	1.0834	0.2115	0.0724	124.7857	26.041	5.103
293	1.2443	0.1665	0.0829	77.3438	31.7413	5.6339
294	1.4174	0.1772	0.0923	87.5989	37.327	6.1096
295	1.6045	0.1154	0.0944	37.1567	37.3116	6.1083
296	1.8073	0.1343	0.0977	50.3096	38.3947	6.1963