Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[168])
156	3.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
157	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
158	3.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
159	3.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
160	3.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
161	3.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
162	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
163	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
164	3.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
165	3.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
166	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
167	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
168	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
169	1.1	1.3448	0.968	1.7216	0.1014	0.0922	0	0.0922
170	1.2	1.2043	0.6212	1.7874	0.4942	0.6371	0	0.0918
171	0.6	1.0725	0.3239	1.821	0.108	0.3692	0	0.0836
172	0.6	1.311	0.4239	2.198	0.0581	0.9419	0	0.2615
173	0	1.0965	0.0889	2.1041	0.0165	0.8329	0	0.1637
174	-0.1	0.9059	-0.2096	2.0214	0.0386	0.9443	0	0.1113
175	-0.6	0.8973	-0.3165	2.1111	0.0078	0.9463	0	0.1283
176	-0.2	1.0129	-0.2919	2.3177	0.0342	0.9923	0	0.1889
177	-0.3	1.0254	-0.3644	2.4153	0.0308	0.958	1e-04	0.2089
178	-0.1	1.1361	-0.334	2.6061	0.0497	0.9722	0.003	0.2681
179	0.5	1.6462	0.1002	3.1921	0.0731	0.9866	0.2825	0.5233
180	0.9	1.9293	0.3109	3.5477	0.1063	0.9583	0.655	0.655

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
169	0.1429	-0.182	0	0.0599	0	0
170	0.247	-0.0036	0.0928	0	0.03	0.1731
171	0.3561	-0.4405	0.2087	0.2232	0.0944	0.3072
172	0.3452	-0.5423	0.2921	0.5055	0.1972	0.444
173	0.4688	-1	0.4337	1.2024	0.3982	0.631
174	0.6282	-1.1104	0.5465	1.0119	0.5005	0.7074
175	0.6902	-1.6687	0.7068	2.242	0.7493	0.8656
176	0.6573	-1.1975	0.7681	1.4711	0.8395	0.9162
177	0.6915	-1.2926	0.8264	1.7567	0.9414	0.9703
178	0.6602	-1.088	0.8526	1.5278	1	1
179	0.4792	-0.6963	0.8383	1.3137	1.0286	1.0142
180	0.428	-0.5335	0.8129	1.0595	1.0311	1.0154