| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.859273893725624 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 33508 | 35364.6626602564 | -1856.66266025641 |
| 14 | 36080 | 36276.0354231599 | -196.035423159919 |
| 15 | 34560 | 34389.3418181102 | 170.658181889841 |
| 16 | 38737 | 38296.4051215425 | 440.594878457545 |
| 17 | 38144 | 37441.7929812939 | 702.207018706089 |
| 18 | 37594 | 36733.5189901093 | 860.48100989069 |
| 19 | 36424 | 36951.8290409387 | -527.829040938726 |
| 20 | 36843 | 34780.1171753602 | 2062.8828246398 |
| 21 | 37246 | 37188.3697153718 | 57.6302846281615 |
| 22 | 38661 | 34382.7694307578 | 4278.23056924218 |
| 23 | 40454 | 39570.7791198969 | 883.220880103108 |
| 24 | 44928 | 42404.7956142132 | 2523.2043857868 |
| 25 | 48441 | 42312.3928809279 | 6128.6071190721 |
| 26 | 48140 | 50318.9931046143 | -2178.99310461434 |
| 27 | 45998 | 46779.9990947625 | -781.999094762476 |
| 28 | 47369 | 49906.4560109482 | -2537.45601094823 |
| 29 | 49554 | 46529.6981450982 | 3024.30185490179 |
| 30 | 47510 | 47839.0129079156 | -329.012907915567 |
| 31 | 44873 | 46839.8504206739 | -1966.85042067385 |
| 32 | 45344 | 43796.2058442976 | 1547.79415570242 |
| 33 | 42413 | 45479.6647560848 | -3066.66475608481 |
| 34 | 36912 | 40583.3879508839 | -3671.38795088395 |
| 35 | 43452 | 38462.7314862846 | 4989.26851371542 |
| 36 | 42142 | 45055.7560116669 | -2913.7560116669 |
| 37 | 44382 | 40798.8894358358 | 3583.11056416423 |
| 38 | 43636 | 45449.1146913578 | -1813.11469135783 |
| 39 | 44167 | 42421.1039777901 | 1745.89602220988 |
| 40 | 44423 | 47472.6765575195 | -3049.67655751946 |
| 41 | 42868 | 44438.4654766729 | -1570.46547667287 |
| 42 | 43908 | 41327.7176940411 | 2580.2823059589 |
| 43 | 42013 | 42597.950137342 | -584.950137342043 |
| 44 | 38846 | 41236.3386443366 | -2390.33864433663 |
| 45 | 35087 | 38886.4880158068 | -3799.4880158068 |
| 46 | 33026 | 33275.414974234 | -249.414974234031 |
| 47 | 34646 | 35313.9510155476 | -667.951015547573 |
| 48 | 37135 | 35933.7126191115 | 1201.28738088851 |
| 49 | 37985 | 36127.0741382522 | 1857.9258617478 |
| 50 | 43121 | 38535.503448344 | 4585.49655165605 |
| 51 | 43722 | 41506.4980519065 | 2215.50194809349 |
| 52 | 43630 | 46286.728487585 | -2656.72848758502 |
| 53 | 42234 | 43798.3310405884 | -1564.33104058842 |
| 54 | 39351 | 41276.9729923135 | -1925.97299231351 |
| 55 | 39327 | 38229.6670621471 | 1097.33293785288 |
| 56 | 35704 | 38059.5322026113 | -2355.53220261131 |
| 57 | 30466 | 35541.2857365836 | -5075.28573658355 |
| 58 | 28155 | 29333.5409760028 | -1178.54097600283 |
| 59 | 29257 | 30514.8043525852 | -1257.80435258523 |
| 60 | 29998 | 30890.7710237347 | -892.771023734749 |
| 61 | 32529 | 29377.1690004872 | 3151.83099951279 |
| 62 | 34787 | 33281.2576191968 | 1505.74238080323 |
| 63 | 33855 | 33272.3797522023 | 582.62024779775 |
| 64 | 34556 | 35963.8675531898 | -1407.86755318978 |
| 65 | 31348 | 34702.3125432327 | -3354.3125432327 |
| 66 | 30805 | 30591.9776557521 | 213.02234424794 |
| 67 | 28353 | 29808.1126487223 | -1455.11264872232 |
| 68 | 24514 | 26958.8196647792 | -2444.8196647792 |
| 69 | 21106 | 23981.1104886117 | -2875.11048861168 |
| 70 | 21346 | 20212.2925975361 | 1133.70740246391 |
| 71 | 23335 | 23369.2562151878 | -34.2562151877719 |
| 72 | 24379 | 24847.955577549 | -468.955577549048 |
| 73 | 26290 | 24267.7081971276 | 2022.29180287235 |
| 74 | 30084 | 26969.5656303307 | 3114.4343696693 |
| 75 | 29429 | 28213.0874090208 | 1215.91259097921 |
| 76 | 30632 | 31168.6331897809 | -536.633189780856 |
| 77 | 27349 | 30381.7914990917 | -3032.79149909172 |
| 78 | 27264 | 27049.7483996167 | 214.251600383279 |
| 79 | 27474 | 26032.189517992 | 1441.81048200796 |
| 80 | 24482 | 25532.8693376932 | -1050.86933769324 |
| 81 | 21453 | 23692.3921345374 | -2239.39213453744 |
| 82 | 18788 | 21033.9757614542 | -2245.97576145418 |
| 83 | 19282 | 21122.5028951048 | -1840.50289510477 |
| 84 | 19713 | 20987.9680911197 | -1274.96809111973 |
| 85 | 21917 | 20065.7187433838 | 1851.28125661619 |
| 86 | 23812 | 22774.324249559 | 1037.67575044097 |
| 87 | 23785 | 21966.1699855844 | 1818.83001441562 |
| 88 | 24696 | 25193.1580245817 | -497.158024581724 |
| 89 | 24562 | 24088.961673285 | 473.038326715036 |
| 90 | 23580 | 24226.3303512646 | -646.330351264558 |
| 91 | 24939 | 22642.045446811 | 2296.95455318899 |
| 92 | 23899 | 22526.7431170371 | 1372.25688296295 |
| 93 | 21454 | 22601.1388310749 | -1147.13883107493 |
| 94 | 19761 | 20880.3407188114 | -1119.34071881143 |
| 95 | 19815 | 21994.0165500426 | -2179.01655004265 |
| 96 | 20780 | 21648.1913106273 | -868.191310627306 |
| 97 | 23462 | 21515.419528892 | 1946.58047110803 |
| 98 | 25005 | 24191.4176272452 | 813.582372754849 |
| 99 | 24725 | 23300.6345720368 | 1424.36542796319 |
| 100 | 26198 | 25862.7495109902 | 335.250489009817 |
| 101 | 27543 | 25610.3520191772 | 1932.64798082282 |
| 102 | 26471 | 26844.4007724239 | -373.40077242392 |
| 103 | 26558 | 25908.8341541536 | 649.165845846434 |
| 104 | 25317 | 24247.5009031724 | 1069.49909682764 |
| 105 | 22896 | 23707.2000064611 | -811.200006461102 |
| 106 | 22248 | 22278.9772761778 | -30.9772761777567 |
| 107 | 23406 | 24178.7313469072 | -772.731346907207 |
| 108 | 25073 | 25225.7576016279 | -152.757601627884 |
| 109 | 27691 | 26103.8512016217 | 1587.14879837835 |
| 110 | 30599 | 28311.5566362226 | 2287.44336377743 |
| 111 | 31948 | 28773.1769747183 | 3174.82302528166 |
| 112 | 32946 | 32686.147524477 | 259.85247552301 |
| 113 | 34012 | 32593.7580172313 | 1418.2419827687 |
| 114 | 32936 | 33061.269863651 | -125.269863650959 |
| 115 | 32974 | 32482.817476111 | 491.182523889034 |
| 116 | 30951 | 30744.885142676 | 206.11485732405 |
| 117 | 29812 | 29198.0372468256 | 613.96275317443 |
| 118 | 29010 | 29104.2173770665 | -94.2173770665431 |
| 119 | 31068 | 30845.2467178788 | 222.753282121241 |
| 120 | 32447 | 32834.9134170942 | -387.913417094212 |
| 121 | 34844 | 33755.7940168548 | 1088.20598314525 |
| 122 | 35676 | 35633.3206432976 | 42.6793567023851 |
| 123 | 35387 | 34290.9513574894 | 1096.04864251056 |
| 124 | 36488 | 36007.4728938153 | 480.527106184723 |
| 125 | 35652 | 36267.7189806085 | -615.718980608523 |
| 126 | 33488 | 34770.2888582061 | -1282.28885820611 |
| 127 | 32914 | 33284.3911983022 | -370.391198302248 |
| 128 | 29781 | 30766.0145951278 | -985.01459512784 |
| 129 | 27951 | 28253.0551030731 | -302.055103073071 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 130 | 27272.4655709844 | 23431.3188675874 | 31113.6122743814 |
| 131 | 29139.0594909159 | 24074.6395725795 | 34203.4794092523 |
| 132 | 30851.3833632508 | 24806.3614260312 | 36896.4053004705 |
| 133 | 32313.3163709381 | 25425.9198139151 | 39200.7129279611 |
| 134 | 33108.6431139227 | 25471.2238871213 | 40746.0623407242 |
| 135 | 31877.83712916 | 23557.7341515436 | 40197.9401067764 |
| 136 | 32565.9327315879 | 23615.0637977712 | 41516.8016654047 |
| 137 | 32259.0039774962 | 22718.9832341964 | 41799.024720796 |
| 138 | 31196.841317568 | 21101.9942709399 | 41291.688364196 |
| 139 | 30941.1088047348 | 20320.3801100058 | 41561.8374994638 |
| 140 | 28654.5061312669 | 17532.7338300882 | 39776.2784324456 |
| 141 | 27084.0541958042 | 15482.8576958095 | 38685.2506957989 |
