| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 43880 | 43880 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 43110 | 43150.605395067 | -39.9885351105205 | -40.6053950670326 | -0.20852402299267 |
| 3 | 44496 | 44522.5614999474 | -33.7746155184083 | -26.5614999473743 | 0.673368446250687 |
| 4 | 44164 | 44202.4968507214 | -34.9035189651365 | -38.4968507213675 | -0.136524520045107 |
| 5 | 40399 | 40465.8225010153 | -49.7091507760095 | -66.8225010152794 | -1.76526639674614 |
| 6 | 36763 | 36838.0864402425 | -63.9669103376996 | -75.0864402424535 | -1.70624325280129 |
| 7 | 37903 | 37951.0464316386 | -59.2958173139072 | -48.0464316385605 | 0.561233306690417 |
| 8 | 35532 | 35612.9812881593 | -68.3042423389612 | -80.9812881593276 | -1.08665314025625 |
| 9 | 35533 | 35597.2403857035 | -68.0972672846299 | -64.2403857034763 | 0.0250651426966414 |
| 10 | 32110 | 32206.9758129331 | -81.1274294164487 | -96.975812933147 | -1.58418322163715 |
| 11 | 33374 | 33438.5106847061 | -75.999036637909 | -64.5106847061358 | 0.625941330412249 |
| 12 | 35462 | 35521.4303590032 | -67.5972599542006 | -59.4303590031526 | 1.02946986468049 |
| 13 | 33508 | 33624.0296190249 | 9.66214467349127 | -116.02961902486 | -1.05286658160909 |
| 14 | 36080 | 36009.0087057539 | 66.78836977045 | 70.9912942460766 | 0.965075795919313 |
| 15 | 34560 | 34512.3577851941 | 63.0894931692077 | 47.6422148058947 | -0.744803224277266 |
| 16 | 38737 | 38615.8230019192 | 70.2195997562275 | 121.176998080827 | 1.92468507774897 |
| 17 | 38144 | 38091.3391073155 | 69.1188010141147 | 52.6608926845258 | -0.283293720983083 |
| 18 | 37594 | 37550.1513620979 | 67.9888082223825 | 43.8486379020716 | -0.290726007552036 |
| 19 | 36424 | 36346.2772904679 | 65.6386741087845 | 77.7227095320709 | -0.605864387718659 |
| 20 | 36843 | 36787.2758964756 | 66.330972512544 | 55.7241035244477 | 0.17880609340182 |
| 21 | 37246 | 37155.7899549664 | 66.8872664823681 | 90.210045033561 | 0.143947394167836 |
| 22 | 38661 | 38598.4127083267 | 69.4159375943696 | 62.5872916733241 | 0.65534210630465 |
| 23 | 40454 | 40370.0152294124 | 72.5933908785093 | 83.9847705875879 | 0.810874597130249 |
| 24 | 44928 | 44797.7912790338 | 79.8425923348354 | 130.208720966179 | 2.07435208101388 |
| 25 | 48441 | 48543.5555720895 | 8.69371201338716 | -102.555572089465 | 1.91967290216639 |
| 26 | 48140 | 48114.8602019678 | 2.01418466252133 | 25.1397980321874 | -0.189665683708347 |
| 27 | 45998 | 46084.2743934669 | -1.79189132749744 | -86.2743934668697 | -0.967958959675665 |
| 28 | 47369 | 47289.4227623402 | -0.434686295290801 | 79.5772376598228 | 0.574763396273965 |
| 29 | 49554 | 49540.746888666 | 2.31869328830547 | 13.253111334026 | 1.07231693887742 |
| 30 | 47510 | 47558.5900654494 | -0.12268872165468 | -48.5900654493779 | -0.945032950914257 |
| 31 | 44873 | 44894.4310686369 | -3.39470363187884 | -21.4310686368649 | -1.26864777629044 |
| 32 | 45344 | 45337.9175686686 | -2.84655352878808 | 6.08243133141698 | 0.212810319805221 |
| 33 | 42413 | 42444.6398155746 | -6.38709224802698 | -31.6398155745698 | -1.37645755370533 |
| 34 | 36912 | 36995.8877821125 | -13.0589191238438 | -83.8877821124658 | -2.59172255467716 |
| 35 | 43452 | 43365.3980508526 | -4.8845077304586 | 86.601949147358 | 3.03963836510197 |
| 36 | 42142 | 42168.6429699975 | -5.96336334932616 | -26.6429699975158 | -0.567453346572999 |
| 37 | 44382 | 44053.1805329242 | -29.4611513303735 | 328.819467075748 | 0.95790209795342 |
| 38 | 43636 | 43615.6981923538 | -33.9825352272116 | 20.3018076462236 | -0.1819833779395 |
| 39 | 44167 | 44280.4027212283 | -32.7943517061009 | -113.402721228315 | 0.33264999099161 |
| 40 | 44423 | 44415.8262405269 | -32.6553189540214 | 7.17375947306527 | 0.0800965619439486 |
| 41 | 42868 | 42902.3498075826 | -34.0246718346821 | -34.3498075826154 | -0.705083753628604 |
| 42 | 43908 | 43925.4634112581 | -33.0311323216479 | -17.4634112581126 | 0.50334990782691 |
| 43 | 42013 | 42121.7504662053 | -34.6928662973513 | -108.750466205296 | -0.843099119239537 |
| 44 | 38846 | 38903.3079684338 | -37.6770285755032 | -57.3079684338249 | -1.51592183008409 |
| 45 | 35087 | 35101.6515730261 | -41.2003307706442 | -14.6515730260998 | -1.79219293890193 |
| 46 | 33026 | 33240.5434521689 | -42.9139328633428 | -214.543452168869 | -0.866541351970414 |
| 47 | 34646 | 34540.1603236547 | -41.555124468957 | 105.839676345251 | 0.639291292466516 |
| 48 | 37135 | 37173.7114849794 | -40.260108811871 | -38.7114849794379 | 1.2733608932166 |
| 49 | 37985 | 37509.4320665908 | -43.6463793264382 | 475.567933409162 | 0.18728434355937 |
| 50 | 43121 | 43000.0314879142 | 4.00616921374278 | 120.968512085759 | 2.50791551629797 |
| 51 | 43722 | 43817.8883390233 | 5.33934573009184 | -95.8883390232549 | 0.387400713078199 |
| 52 | 43630 | 43566.6651779912 | 5.1690505428924 | 63.3348220087785 | -0.122152320834906 |
| 53 | 42234 | 42284.090532905 | 4.20224862367967 | -50.0905329049819 | -0.61310052346085 |
| 54 | 39351 | 39373.3781069073 | 1.94504044218366 | -22.3781069072475 | -1.38780403622646 |
| 55 | 39327 | 39345.5168513781 | 1.92197598673168 | -18.5168513780562 | -0.0141909143108158 |
| 56 | 35704 | 35742.829631409 | -0.863013673624177 | -38.8296314089763 | -1.71617024831205 |
| 57 | 30466 | 30491.8932567225 | -4.91401387680109 | -25.893256722501 | -2.49958084699912 |
| 58 | 28155 | 28351.4290056913 | -6.58649106931663 | -196.42900569126 | -1.0167553597024 |
| 59 | 29257 | 29120.5041406137 | -5.92039239844198 | 136.49585938635 | 0.369333907029543 |
| 60 | 29998 | 29989.1806366894 | -5.74323489154972 | 8.8193633106404 | 0.416265155046371 |
| 61 | 32529 | 32322.6924607203 | -22.0099360051456 | 206.307539279676 | 1.15300671784623 |
| 62 | 34787 | 34652.3360546795 | -5.61245498170971 | 134.663945320552 | 1.07670691692228 |
| 63 | 33855 | 34001.6237243225 | -6.6564237049504 | -146.623724322551 | -0.307010646939843 |
| 64 | 34556 | 34479.8790281753 | -6.3798703981784 | 76.120971824653 | 0.230861945688873 |
| 65 | 31348 | 31428.867649274 | -8.31798439239332 | -80.8676492739637 | -1.44948733175169 |
| 66 | 30805 | 30853.8829646202 | -8.69688969763075 | -48.8829646202055 | -0.269778388511193 |
| 67 | 28353 | 28394.4478181908 | -10.3376355282636 | -41.447818190811 | -1.16674675890099 |
| 68 | 24514 | 24543.1925775543 | -12.9035482997543 | -29.1925775542935 | -1.82858207004017 |
| 69 | 21106 | 21145.3946855441 | -15.1630162962173 | -39.3946855440835 | -1.61147782302607 |
| 70 | 21346 | 21524.2737006605 | -14.8926387100177 | -178.27370066048 | 0.187598678438295 |
| 71 | 23335 | 23170.5172568165 | -13.6358480329782 | 164.482743183542 | 0.790923272651521 |
| 72 | 24379 | 24393.2729629335 | -13.638541892004 | -14.2729629334792 | 0.588433725203758 |
| 73 | 26290 | 26095.6908395077 | -23.2075346128415 | 194.30916049227 | 0.839757571404564 |
| 74 | 30084 | 29855.9521490642 | -1.24824900393686 | 228.04785093578 | 1.74483398169535 |
| 75 | 29429 | 29634.9075194692 | -1.60304286342051 | -205.907519469192 | -0.104581776063354 |
| 76 | 30632 | 30464.3167949132 | -1.17275101309629 | 167.683205086835 | 0.395627623781772 |
| 77 | 27349 | 27514.0998927524 | -2.8122454678773 | -165.099892752418 | -1.40393133725234 |
| 78 | 27264 | 27262.1509408089 | -2.96062826026399 | 1.84905919109212 | -0.118604614046259 |
| 79 | 27474 | 27429.9581887566 | -2.85842046070743 | 44.0418112433714 | 0.0812962206419516 |
| 80 | 24482 | 24498.4488485732 | -4.60621786486692 | -16.4488485731768 | -1.39422075894487 |
| 81 | 21453 | 21537.6891682898 | -6.37172912617584 | -84.6891682898468 | -1.40731396120478 |
| 82 | 18788 | 19029.6975351837 | -7.93085941708913 | -241.697535183663 | -1.19095934051552 |
| 83 | 19282 | 19101.0349653858 | -7.87698809793577 | 180.96503461423 | 0.0377411159427243 |
| 84 | 19713 | 19729.5531777541 | -7.97669007420436 | -16.5531777540959 | 0.302877906171253 |
| 85 | 21917 | 21815.4773619145 | -17.573667334842 | 101.522638085511 | 1.01929251857023 |
| 86 | 23812 | 23543.8382294741 | -8.9713102676991 | 268.161770525918 | 0.809502603783559 |
| 87 | 23785 | 24040.8027051662 | -8.15493700590668 | -255.802705166176 | 0.24067978432716 |
| 88 | 24696 | 24454.5062014376 | -7.94766478499516 | 241.493798562363 | 0.200835510174121 |
| 89 | 24562 | 24724.0060406921 | -7.80992398799741 | -162.006040692142 | 0.132079362415062 |
| 90 | 23580 | 23644.1120338016 | -8.39092040324117 | -64.1120338016488 | -0.510365753757969 |
| 91 | 24939 | 24805.26495629 | -7.75045405591025 | 133.735043709952 | 0.55676192396322 |
| 92 | 23899 | 23892.8480985152 | -8.24419896261424 | 6.15190148478202 | -0.43066662526235 |
| 93 | 21454 | 21537.5394491615 | -9.52991941654673 | -83.5394491615492 | -1.11732233052469 |
| 94 | 19761 | 20024.1197022448 | -10.4030512611947 | -263.119702244791 | -0.715953484840928 |
| 95 | 19815 | 19633.7218121554 | -10.6370823696252 | 181.278187844583 | -0.180917351185997 |
| 96 | 20780 | 20801.9665027555 | -10.9609078302838 | -21.9665027554946 | 0.561079105237928 |
| 97 | 23462 | 23312.149002099 | -20.6226660037555 | 149.850997901042 | 1.22239034010949 |
| 98 | 25005 | 24724.834942946 | -14.5380457564055 | 280.165057053997 | 0.667295205069921 |
| 99 | 24725 | 25005.1745326512 | -14.063028817202 | -280.174532651183 | 0.140248102730746 |
| 100 | 26198 | 25950.7539601934 | -13.60042887527 | 247.246039806629 | 0.456857682547373 |
| 101 | 27543 | 27630.392113416 | -12.835901008356 | -87.3921134159711 | 0.806055499478176 |
| 102 | 26471 | 26627.110485057 | -13.3316895383551 | -156.110485057029 | -0.471492786008999 |
| 103 | 26558 | 26423.2801194342 | -13.4287503774796 | 134.719880565789 | -0.0906852376340076 |
| 104 | 25317 | 25292.898658397 | -13.9960449594264 | 24.1013416029927 | -0.531715325686414 |
| 105 | 22896 | 23003.887149622 | -15.1611024343511 | -107.887149622037 | -1.08300482638442 |
| 106 | 22248 | 22489.6742141607 | -15.4357465923667 | -241.674214160664 | -0.237580402894759 |
| 107 | 23406 | 23213.655552575 | -15.0219334235474 | 192.344447425019 | 0.352029619867524 |
| 108 | 25073 | 25102.5016603975 | -15.7161582894693 | -29.5016603975152 | 0.906177118946348 |
| 109 | 27691 | 27495.9780489627 | -23.5323474734794 | 195.021951037302 | 1.16447843985375 |
| 110 | 30599 | 30256.832699795 | -13.2281608415219 | 342.167300205026 | 1.30052495881472 |
| 111 | 31948 | 32205.6957249483 | -10.0814924480439 | -257.695724948322 | 0.933017691264404 |
| 112 | 32946 | 32753.6274157977 | -9.81131861254138 | 192.372584202264 | 0.265653336911307 |
| 113 | 34012 | 34036.8463963579 | -9.27176594649073 | -24.8463963579072 | 0.61553156872512 |
| 114 | 32936 | 33134.1528708394 | -9.68937614100426 | -198.152870839364 | -0.42529921146062 |
| 115 | 32974 | 32823.4801602476 | -9.8338114383649 | 150.519839752423 | -0.143278345118783 |
| 116 | 30951 | 30915.0376389712 | -10.7432197999169 | 35.9623610287586 | -0.9038022716704 |
| 117 | 29812 | 29908.8218678336 | -11.2269180253439 | -96.82186783365 | -0.473881916960275 |
| 118 | 29010 | 29260.9814842892 | -11.5628820831968 | -250.981484289156 | -0.303067104814339 |
| 119 | 31068 | 30847.4960773496 | -10.7508446625621 | 220.503922650408 | 0.76080666642089 |
| 120 | 32447 | 32490.2834565786 | -11.4656476141887 | -43.2834565786404 | 0.787078969697979 |
| 121 | 34844 | 34707.428519598 | -17.6437218061087 | 136.571480402045 | 1.07451999197507 |
| 122 | 35676 | 35384.7727420338 | -15.3800025078235 | 291.227257966248 | 0.325462868965301 |
| 123 | 35387 | 35661.2872922101 | -14.915487155905 | -274.287292210067 | 0.138777378608648 |
| 124 | 36488 | 36328.8887329862 | -14.5785271705022 | 159.111267013814 | 0.324925747189646 |
| 125 | 35652 | 35687.6083738839 | -14.8237469457719 | -35.6083738838575 | -0.298331460731018 |
| 126 | 33488 | 33757.2356475612 | -15.666712565389 | -269.23564756124 | -0.911856357912074 |
| 127 | 32914 | 32736.0528252838 | -16.1252816324323 | 177.947174716173 | -0.478654248410551 |
| 128 | 29781 | 29806.0523014979 | -17.4553363658106 | -25.0523014978898 | -1.38708754230559 |
| 129 | 27951 | 28053.7135186009 | -18.2644990932645 | -102.713518600916 | -0.825862228789122 |
