Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.00547273897852051 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.283796808383624 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 44 | 47.3857323232323 | -3.38573232323233 |
14 | 36 | 38.5338697606428 | -2.53386976064281 |
15 | 72 | 74.061669219504 | -2.06166921950393 |
16 | 45 | 47.6753862420055 | -2.67538624200552 |
17 | 56 | 59.4940778847696 | -3.49407788476964 |
18 | 54 | 57.8916223752023 | -3.89162237520234 |
19 | 53 | 41.1203245417399 | 11.8796754582601 |
20 | 35 | 28.3520055713391 | 6.64799442866086 |
21 | 61 | 60.2217216429112 | 0.778278357088801 |
22 | 52 | 72.5593142905455 | -20.5593142905455 |
23 | 47 | 52.1134651965227 | -5.11346519652266 |
24 | 51 | 62.4604805362263 | -11.4604805362263 |
25 | 52 | 46.2338254930999 | 5.76617450690009 |
26 | 63 | 37.6724817373835 | 25.3275182626165 |
27 | 74 | 73.4860349106542 | 0.513965089345817 |
28 | 45 | 46.9406299672454 | -1.94062996724536 |
29 | 51 | 58.5322722115789 | -7.53227221157892 |
30 | 64 | 56.7955123055187 | 7.20448769448126 |
31 | 36 | 44.5362894494873 | -8.53628944948731 |
32 | 30 | 30.1796304171774 | -0.179630417177368 |
33 | 55 | 60.3552905180826 | -5.35529051808256 |
34 | 64 | 66.6369154458488 | -2.63691544584883 |
35 | 39 | 50.64864398173 | -11.6486439817300 |
36 | 40 | 59.1684891381623 | -19.1684891381623 |
37 | 63 | 47.7617643883987 | 15.2382356116013 |
38 | 45 | 44.7733240562875 | 0.226675943712529 |
39 | 59 | 73.4460387434385 | -14.4460387434385 |
40 | 55 | 46.1259677051388 | 8.87403229486119 |
41 | 40 | 56.1985901865845 | -16.1985901865845 |
42 | 64 | 58.5737588740304 | 5.42624112596959 |
43 | 27 | 41.862069546533 | -14.862069546533 |
44 | 28 | 29.8294052226966 | -1.82940522269663 |
45 | 45 | 58.5352392738363 | -13.5352392738363 |
46 | 57 | 65.5393416137178 | -8.53934161371778 |
47 | 45 | 46.9752644441634 | -1.97526444416337 |
48 | 69 | 53.425620843247 | 15.5743791567530 |
49 | 60 | 51.9201147520066 | 8.07988524799342 |
50 | 56 | 44.6555810559099 | 11.3444189440901 |
51 | 58 | 69.2478595159965 | -11.2478595159965 |
52 | 50 | 48.5272335380874 | 1.47276646191262 |
53 | 51 | 51.4827620251635 | -0.482762025163474 |
54 | 53 | 60.0474109291823 | -7.0474109291823 |
55 | 37 | 37.5412094491569 | -0.541209449156923 |
56 | 22 | 29.2653063658442 | -7.26530636584425 |
57 | 55 | 54.637493673371 | 0.36250632662896 |
58 | 70 | 63.1277152005227 | 6.87228479947728 |
59 | 62 | 46.5006510210163 | 15.4993489789837 |
60 | 58 | 57.9999171041062 | 8.28958938114965e-05 |
61 | 39 | 54.2939035450508 | -15.2939035450508 |
62 | 49 | 47.8228451507844 | 1.17715484921555 |
63 | 58 | 65.9829534109177 | -7.9829534109177 |
64 | 47 | 48.8705114775701 | -1.87051147757007 |
65 | 42 | 51.2558075547797 | -9.25580755477974 |
66 | 62 | 57.919613320685 | 4.08038667931505 |
67 | 39 | 37.3106455072468 | 1.68935449275322 |
68 | 40 | 27.1491159772013 | 12.8508840227987 |
69 | 72 | 54.7842957353716 | 17.2157042646284 |
70 | 70 | 65.2040941342166 | 4.79590586578341 |
71 | 54 | 51.0006006656771 | 2.99939933432294 |
72 | 65 | 58.0568881613235 | 6.94311183867649 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 50.0722412396403 | 31.3423579300858 | 68.8021245491948 |
74 | 48.3337342343557 | 29.6035704387332 | 67.0638980299781 |
75 | 63.9020177287652 | 45.171573451275 | 82.6324620062553 |
76 | 48.5584624139734 | 29.8277376588157 | 67.2891871691312 |
77 | 48.8695422985678 | 30.1385370699423 | 67.6005475271933 |
78 | 59.3480589880769 | 40.6167732901833 | 78.0793446859704 |
79 | 38.0419066018529 | 19.3103404388907 | 56.773472764815 |
80 | 31.0214026496053 | 12.2895560257739 | 49.7532492734368 |
81 | 59.8181957252078 | 41.0860686447061 | 78.5503228057094 |
82 | 66.6383676803266 | 47.9059601473537 | 85.3707752132995 |
83 | 51.9015748876225 | 33.1688869063771 | 70.6342628688679 |
84 | 60.0545353148076 | 41.3215668894883 | 78.787503740127 |