Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 62 | 47.9109909952398 | 0.457697990806483 | 3.2732664441853 | 1.53740801159490 |
3 | 66 | 52.2181091947632 | 1.23549467053244 | 3.11059823021179 | 1.66340889373574 |
4 | 59 | 54.8085379684848 | 1.45917282107061 | 0.885365209157957 | 0.524695635574755 |
5 | 58 | 56.4533173431123 | 1.48496120504533 | 1.09744791255815 | 0.0712082144066377 |
6 | 61 | 58.3025660066566 | 1.52862181359353 | 1.78775491036663 | 0.143265671402083 |
7 | 41 | 55.5098165849483 | 1.07341424352759 | -3.20527967546787 | -1.76638134616308 |
8 | 27 | 49.8660729865789 | 0.442407654810065 | -4.36853300101980 | -2.8676301503383 |
9 | 58 | 51.1348726332422 | 0.512449702602629 | 4.46984428057707 | 0.368629103685274 |
10 | 70 | 55.1496258961828 | 0.782855525330754 | 4.1921840034356 | 1.62955096914827 |
11 | 49 | 54.8312529351815 | 0.70477805531319 | -2.32506185403912 | -0.532976650346298 |
12 | 59 | 55.9269518611341 | 0.730405529209196 | 1.77587094147030 | 0.196188580476513 |
13 | 44 | 56.3322175718715 | 0.736551767164163 | -10.1266938932362 | -0.329507017818823 |
14 | 36 | 53.3161772825258 | 0.551370851135196 | -4.85096872699698 | -1.97250971184503 |
15 | 72 | 56.1461430448546 | 0.678454030087005 | 9.18232891129205 | 1.08285304248221 |
16 | 45 | 55.0580889491326 | 0.58285030399649 | -4.74389861543802 | -0.862737430640465 |
17 | 56 | 55.4247969873688 | 0.571809017501688 | 1.26024583279445 | -0.110650260025021 |
18 | 54 | 55.121655007196 | 0.529781916320623 | 1.7913244432931 | -0.46809716299563 |
19 | 53 | 55.2064826223997 | 0.509645646754152 | -0.661514110110605 | -0.247188712475582 |
20 | 35 | 53.2929661513387 | 0.405995059714273 | -9.57646047019087 | -1.38962527012726 |
21 | 61 | 54.0446390815115 | 0.420016801398219 | 5.67413367370527 | 0.203654897469071 |
22 | 52 | 53.516129640001 | 0.383447121500262 | 2.09151193050818 | -0.571991077014357 |
23 | 47 | 53.1837978677296 | 0.35732766183705 | -3.39326960331675 | -0.441277084928003 |
24 | 51 | 52.7576108386102 | 0.331818398229640 | 1.42353098950672 | -0.500327135262522 |
25 | 52 | 53.393667285405 | 0.334464713935509 | -2.91243454034330 | 0.238016698230939 |
26 | 63 | 55.7506299100905 | 0.38638105192157 | -1.08043725288232 | 1.33115093069008 |
27 | 74 | 57.4971548438824 | 0.429789242304816 | 11.3360004076134 | 0.836132538702332 |
28 | 45 | 57.0091907078008 | 0.399552381535283 | -8.55575179521326 | -0.560666586608115 |
29 | 51 | 56.1634701526185 | 0.359391328280942 | -0.410074478700819 | -0.77134350606446 |
30 | 64 | 57.0084644010645 | 0.37447520059378 | 5.10111512384537 | 0.306300014569987 |
31 | 36 | 54.4646481401095 | 0.287519041872966 | -6.88373841602748 | -1.87336479220132 |
32 | 30 | 52.3779147597683 | 0.21965600670457 | -12.7918471892073 | -1.54833518956462 |
33 | 55 | 51.6827015107932 | 0.194559197170161 | 7.06832201189843 | -0.605031776510308 |
34 | 64 | 52.8949348380383 | 0.221277167221656 | 6.87173219683117 | 0.681880685163791 |
35 | 39 | 51.8538986252562 | 0.190131975351364 | -7.51371554446141 | -0.858516679986867 |
36 | 40 | 50.3170461622272 | 0.153398183928063 | -2.78147007264109 | -1.20700649875124 |
37 | 63 | 52.1336680183341 | 0.172850915525717 | 2.99194230221404 | 1.25744345028980 |
38 | 45 | 51.8776996365236 | 0.165163670186253 | -4.98992881429014 | -0.303709661346437 |
39 | 59 | 51.3081383160931 | 0.148939140248051 | 10.7703334599327 | -0.498755239588257 |
40 | 55 | 52.7154226513219 | 0.178504347188585 | -2.91213341571516 | 0.844384311829116 |
41 | 40 | 51.4607842867597 | 0.144739891109483 | -5.52656594183589 | -0.964741535525588 |
42 | 64 | 51.9113099812074 | 0.151794417157173 | 10.8111285654316 | 0.207607035354958 |
43 | 27 | 49.569636349891 | 0.0959863921279493 | -12.0411062303291 | -1.70961224487393 |
44 | 28 | 48.1399265740086 | 0.062982215133594 | -13.6297315937725 | -1.05622452453552 |
45 | 45 | 46.7736261612595 | 0.0331938580705787 | 4.38718216971831 | -0.99864912109608 |
46 | 57 | 46.7764793982211 | 0.0325895571864374 | 10.3556758144455 | -0.0213994993193094 |
47 | 45 | 47.2931297999486 | 0.0415731598280422 | -4.42947123934695 | 0.345405804996543 |
48 | 69 | 50.4129403149992 | 0.09094566749257 | 4.70460948531226 | 2.23928536291905 |
49 | 60 | 51.5905180742013 | 0.103646048994531 | 3.32766272724329 | 0.817930460757922 |
50 | 56 | 52.9226572106711 | 0.121202400532406 | -2.48904466989071 | 0.898735338757708 |
51 | 58 | 52.6695761920148 | 0.114880325275220 | 6.97612087111293 | -0.266788689700409 |
52 | 50 | 52.5872799375226 | 0.111304197834970 | -1.73128769627027 | -0.139074697674046 |
53 | 51 | 53.0528115129368 | 0.117841905695975 | -3.58859194197530 | 0.249708537245788 |
54 | 53 | 51.5548081476913 | 0.08828433395974 | 8.48023758748402 | -1.14383034506231 |
55 | 37 | 50.8845016112866 | 0.074707801614123 | -10.5605720733483 | -0.540234450862252 |
56 | 22 | 48.8797431387795 | 0.0385570759719390 | -17.7030046038042 | -1.49067364552621 |
57 | 55 | 48.855315335794 | 0.0375004495205275 | 6.42471567921443 | -0.0454581979877187 |
58 | 70 | 50.2752416536181 | 0.0596248123260531 | 13.5280250958367 | 1.00508440250233 |
59 | 62 | 52.7882342599294 | 0.096142318248043 | -1.89890031614101 | 1.80000855050602 |
60 | 58 | 53.4735459799282 | 0.103874688591409 | 1.81880755891090 | 0.43799085902189 |
61 | 39 | 51.8304693207109 | 0.0847434072077441 | -4.66011567788266 | -1.31980013724254 |
62 | 49 | 51.5694135624134 | 0.0805485381092885 | -0.976452219488245 | -0.257688832278507 |
63 | 58 | 51.4574552413979 | 0.077901625644829 | 7.41308611130829 | -0.141163896816139 |
64 | 47 | 51.1239732030668 | 0.0718433881375621 | -2.28203160692184 | -0.299163295924578 |
65 | 42 | 50.2367277875602 | 0.0573621991680391 | -3.9531025424518 | -0.696230570898364 |
66 | 62 | 50.3680812137623 | 0.0584785151567812 | 11.3008276782143 | 0.0538204409745376 |
67 | 39 | 50.1104978807176 | 0.0537837861268707 | -9.69046163350035 | -0.23079008958385 |
68 | 40 | 51.0556766264015 | 0.066694662416012 | -15.0810395854609 | 0.653973747021786 |
69 | 72 | 53.1372293709243 | 0.0948982810964554 | 9.71202050467582 | 1.48589765140273 |
70 | 70 | 54.1771896194629 | 0.107521723003607 | 11.5027849270950 | 0.701013670982159 |
71 | 54 | 54.6367172058021 | 0.111910649706803 | -2.258546771144 | 0.262945414533897 |
72 | 65 | 55.5498728742939 | 0.120927455412735 | 5.72160125878757 | 0.603880419807055 |