| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 42.336 | 42.336 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 42.1471 | 42.1754349982682 | -0.0283349982681699 | -0.0283349982681699 | -0.0690720062199077 |
| 3 | 40.2564 | 40.3301585321872 | -0.0737585321871807 | -0.0737585321871807 | -2.12702631200036 |
| 4 | 39.1898 | 39.2871976133781 | -0.0973976133781213 | -0.0973976133781214 | -1.13427192952268 |
| 5 | 39.1317 | 39.2281837154445 | -0.0964837154445443 | -0.0964837154445445 | 0.0449082970192552 |
| 6 | 38.1507 | 38.1354593226654 | -0.00381016933365392 | 0.0152406773346167 | -1.34935442656653 |
| 7 | 38.2707 | 38.2654873685552 | 0.00521263144479248 | 0.00521263144479224 | 0.130181099146390 |
| 8 | 39.1335 | 39.1193541670269 | 0.014145832973075 | 0.0141458329730749 | 0.98644881374596 |
| 9 | 40.1219 | 40.0977103098880 | 0.0241896901119562 | 0.0241896901119563 | 1.12070681919169 |
| 10 | 41.2845 | 41.2486938784443 | 0.0358061215557107 | 0.035806121555711 | 1.30960897473060 |
| 11 | 42.5749 | 42.5169140363312 | -0.0144964909171888 | 0.0579859636687527 | 1.53697221355352 |
| 12 | 43.9019 | 43.8598373340189 | 0.0420626659810896 | 0.0420626659810905 | 1.42534413509020 |
| 13 | 43.1835 | 43.1464735105333 | 0.0370264894667286 | 0.0370264894667293 | -0.876405403784229 |
| 14 | 43.6188 | 43.5791532901114 | 0.0396467098886186 | 0.0396467098886194 | 0.459005717086123 |
| 15 | 44.7624 | 44.7155379092456 | 0.0468620907544423 | 0.0468620907544434 | 1.27232121794807 |
| 16 | 45.1972 | 45.325737276247 | 0.0321343190617536 | -0.12853727624702 | 0.684598777446415 |
| 17 | 44.3881 | 44.3852897561311 | 0.00281024386891927 | 0.00281024386892037 | -1.05187311654929 |
| 18 | 43.5552 | 43.556446601927 | -0.00124660192695745 | -0.00124660192695665 | -0.963982254050247 |
| 19 | 43.5678 | 43.568979710131 | -0.00117971013099891 | -0.00117971013099811 | 0.0159720859088201 |
| 20 | 44.2135 | 44.2115697115612 | 0.00193028843884514 | 0.00193028843884620 | 0.746185881750455 |
| 21 | 45.1451 | 45.0857267863623 | -0.0148433034094282 | 0.0593732136377067 | 1.04662656695006 |
| 22 | 45.8079 | 45.8053926923313 | 0.00250730766872622 | 0.00250730766872800 | 0.806945502164552 |
| 23 | 42.3282 | 42.3390344826571 | -0.010834482657136 | -0.0108344826571358 | -4.01875042277396 |
| 24 | 37.8999 | 37.9275950379095 | -0.0276950379095074 | -0.0276950379095093 | -5.09815187636318 |
| 25 | 34.7964 | 34.8357901137023 | -0.0393901137022745 | -0.039390113702278 | -3.54978097681965 |
| 26 | 35.2144 | 35.0419039441639 | -0.0431240139590303 | 0.172496055836135 | 0.292383387894325 |
| 27 | 36.3727 | 36.3888326982875 | -0.0161326982874871 | -0.0161326982874899 | 1.54205611982829 |
| 28 | 36.2502 | 36.2666693036700 | -0.0164693036700490 | -0.0164693036700518 | -0.122797597770205 |
| 29 | 36.8261 | 36.8407006308022 | -0.0146006308022213 | -0.0146006308022238 | 0.683874560576457 |
| 30 | 36.7723 | 36.7870238992579 | -0.0147238992578703 | -0.0147238992578729 | -0.0452548513316112 |
| 31 | 36.9042 | 36.8418071860854 | -0.0155982034786384 | 0.0623928139145636 | 0.082368161679674 |
| 32 | 37.0494 | 37.0611259458685 | -0.0117259458684654 | -0.0117259458684678 | 0.262335511197369 |
| 33 | 36.8259 | 36.8381967654176 | -0.0122967654176189 | -0.0122967654176214 | -0.244543796890893 |
| 34 | 36.1357 | 36.1498190859287 | -0.0141190859287129 | -0.0141190859287159 | -0.782804266559144 |
| 35 | 36.03 | 36.0443646111659 | -0.0143646111659006 | -0.0143646111659036 | -0.105752835567033 |
| 36 | 35.7927 | 35.7473652959147 | -0.0113336760213133 | 0.0453347040852663 | -0.333745842672942 |
| 37 | 35.9174 | 35.9260131764210 | -0.0086131764210399 | -0.0086131764210431 | 0.213175199160961 |
| 38 | 35.4008 | 35.4106056337465 | -0.00980563374654099 | -0.00980563374654458 | -0.58669462035019 |
| 39 | 35.1723 | 35.1826177985358 | -0.0103177985357711 | -0.0103177985357748 | -0.252579704308682 |
| 40 | 34.9211 | 34.9319806074145 | -0.0108806074144817 | -0.0108806074144857 | -0.278206170139057 |
| 41 | 35.0292 | 34.9833504507029 | -0.0114623873242698 | 0.0458495492970949 | 0.073313186079764 |
| 42 | 34.7739 | 34.7876939582631 | -0.0137939582630737 | -0.0137939582630777 | -0.207433780394040 |
| 43 | 34.8999 | 34.9134033263347 | -0.0135033263346902 | -0.0135033263346941 | 0.161475439642412 |
| 44 | 34.9054 | 34.9188639003467 | -0.0134639003466439 | -0.0134639003466478 | 0.0219507133518113 |
| 45 | 34.568 | 34.5821345754978 | -0.0141345754978107 | -0.0141345754978149 | -0.374178901412724 |
| 46 | 34.406 | 34.3564689381184 | -0.0123827654703913 | 0.0495310618815827 | -0.248611291692362 |
| 47 | 34.4578 | 34.4687685980807 | -0.0109685980807150 | -0.0109685980807194 | 0.140814289058293 |
| 48 | 34.7316 | 34.7420373133852 | -0.0104373133852268 | -0.0104373133852309 | 0.32897022088489 |
| 49 | 34.2602 | 34.2714957168946 | -0.0112957168945674 | -0.0112957168945720 | -0.532513984239502 |
| 50 | 33.8849 | 33.8968723047783 | -0.0119723047783055 | -0.0119723047783104 | -0.42050628564687 |
| 51 | 34.0549 | 34.0034841157504 | -0.0128539710624059 | 0.0514158842496424 | 0.139142645752838 |
| 52 | 34.2755 | 34.2853262711457 | -0.0098262711457204 | -0.0098262711457249 | 0.333589568509462 |
| 53 | 34.1393 | 34.1493401014813 | -0.0100401014813066 | -0.0100401014813112 | -0.146002085277924 |
| 54 | 34.1587 | 34.1686903715804 | -0.00999037158036111 | -0.00999037158036572 | 0.0340127841374934 |
| 55 | 34.5386 | 34.547932883604 | -0.00933288360401597 | -0.00933288360402013 | 0.45044939718966 |
| 56 | 33.7987 | 33.7817883416114 | -0.00422791459714528 | 0.0169116583886022 | -0.886827406835394 |
| 57 | 33.4973 | 33.504095658889 | -0.00679565888896662 | -0.00679565888897212 | -0.310140884005287 |
| 58 | 33.6802 | 33.6867020123593 | -0.00650201235929028 | -0.00650201235929555 | 0.219174984097073 |
| 59 | 34.3284 | 34.3338901081709 | -0.00549010817090561 | -0.00549010817091009 | 0.756445750594122 |
| 60 | 34.1538 | 34.1595510802252 | -0.00575108022521263 | -0.00575108022521731 | -0.195390589058263 |
| 61 | 33.9184 | 33.9016222892184 | -0.00419442769539634 | 0.0167777107816057 | -0.295170688122443 |
| 62 | 34.3262 | 34.3266832857126 | -0.000483285712594828 | -0.000483285712599496 | 0.487595146530007 |
| 63 | 34.775 | 34.7748423680462 | 0.000157631953803572 | 0.000157631953799489 | 0.519134947841041 |
| 64 | 35.0119 | 35.0114051282069 | 0.000494871793150427 | 0.000494871793146656 | 0.273549820008466 |
| 65 | 34.5513 | 34.5514610241815 | -0.000161024181514142 | -0.00016102418151853 | -0.532784005673423 |
| 66 | 34.6951 | 34.6912702364525 | -0.000957440886867086 | 0.00382976354748494 | 0.163678814922834 |
| 67 | 35.473 | 35.4677298013416 | 0.00527019865843264 | 0.00527019865842931 | 0.88426031140884 |
| 68 | 35.9794 | 35.9734669312361 | 0.00593306876388299 | 0.00593306876388036 | 0.579072313984052 |
| 69 | 36.4789 | 36.4723149273661 | 0.00658507263395113 | 0.00658507263394921 | 0.570333662555418 |
| 70 | 36.391 | 36.3845395778572 | 0.00646042214275177 | 0.00646042214274971 | -0.109180865127905 |
| 71 | 36.6704 | 36.6899317828840 | 0.00488294572101047 | -0.0195317828840359 | 0.349283413677853 |
| 72 | 37.4162 | 37.4060096296604 | 0.0101903703396122 | 0.0101903703396115 | 0.809870478658174 |
| 73 | 37.1185 | 37.1086892725327 | 0.009810727467342 | 0.00981072746734083 | -0.355793640670887 |
| 74 | 36.3001 | 36.2913092364797 | 0.00879076352033125 | 0.00879076352032881 | -0.957069016655067 |
| 75 | 35.7002 | 35.6921579336035 | 0.00804206639648234 | 0.00804206639647896 | -0.703395274827105 |
| 76 | 35.5859 | 35.6196534377774 | 0.00843835944435643 | -0.0337534377774116 | -0.0940478766329062 |
| 77 | 35.6777 | 35.6689760693888 | 0.00872393061118309 | 0.0087239306111796 | 0.0466034876406184 |
| 78 | 35.2408 | 35.2325906466744 | 0.0082093533255566 | 0.0082093533255524 | -0.514976730637595 |
| 79 | 34.8016 | 34.7939066897564 | 0.00769331024359199 | 0.00769331024358705 | -0.517040364796021 |
| 80 | 34.4389 | 34.4316334101587 | 0.00726658984128804 | 0.00726658984128249 | -0.428038480215796 |
| 81 | 34.9881 | 35.0066999999486 | 0.00464999998714276 | -0.0185999999485536 | 0.662569821814272 |
| 82 | 36.068 | 36.0564891304654 | 0.0115108695346299 | 0.0115108695346269 | 1.19238897480090 |
| 83 | 36.3566 | 36.344788273647 | 0.0118117263530114 | 0.0118117263530089 | 0.320223781243564 |
| 84 | 36.1254 | 36.1138518438484 | 0.0115481561515925 | 0.0115481561515895 | -0.280841690321558 |
| 85 | 34.871 | 34.8608234019771 | 0.0101765980228857 | 0.0101765980228805 | -1.46302087756877 |
| 86 | 35.2199 | 35.2539677315407 | 0.00851693288517614 | -0.0340677315406872 | 0.446646691128553 |
| 87 | 34.339 | 34.3362184615454 | 0.00278153845456787 | 0.00278153845456227 | -1.05758951860822 |
| 88 | 33.8234 | 33.8211495901696 | 0.00225040983043347 | 0.00225040983042692 | -0.599096687508627 |
| 89 | 34.5199 | 34.5169389969368 | 0.00296100306321863 | 0.00296100306321336 | 0.80234888250385 |
| 90 | 35.53 | 35.526009202464 | 0.00399079753603803 | 0.00399079753603464 | 1.16395786680534 |
| 91 | 35.7966 | 35.8080148893079 | 0.00285372232698653 | -0.0114148893079352 | 0.324087151269594 |
| 92 | 33.8484 | 33.8569947572612 | -0.00859475726114858 | -0.00859475726115417 | -2.23243263379413 |
| 93 | 33.9871 | 33.9955518913476 | -0.0084518913475583 | -0.0084518913475636 | 0.170234101089905 |
| 94 | 34.1161 | 34.1244187015307 | -0.00831870153067683 | -0.00831870153068186 | 0.158858404795086 |
| 95 | 33.8235 | 33.8320939012381 | -0.00859390123812694 | -0.00859390123813253 | -0.328554917264523 |
| 96 | 32.454 | 32.4410371782952 | -0.00324070542618606 | 0.0129628217047803 | -1.61087201631425 |
| 97 | 31.8774 | 31.8837217511378 | -0.00632175113782064 | -0.0063217511378305 | -0.633460440698992 |
| 98 | 31.115 | 31.1220179557853 | -0.00701795578529623 | -0.00701795578530763 | -0.873849604103909 |
| 99 | 31.0436 | 31.0506771848967 | -0.00707718489667595 | -0.00707718489668748 | -0.0744106152827217 |
| 100 | 30.8868 | 30.8940147977779 | -0.00721479777789522 | -0.00721479777790706 | -0.173044699715184 |
| 101 | 31.3001 | 31.2656692029748 | -0.00860769925629113 | 0.0344307970252080 | 0.441295385732062 |
| 102 | 30.0507 | 30.0656116666347 | -0.0149116666346762 | -0.014911666634689 | -1.36291779855194 |
| 103 | 28.6799 | 28.6959999999655 | -0.0160999999654886 | -0.0160999999655043 | -1.56712457252792 |
| 104 | 27.6438 | 27.6607931698410 | -0.0169931698410127 | -0.0169931698410305 | -1.17890805504039 |
| 105 | 27.2394 | 27.2567321084494 | -0.0173321084493499 | -0.0173321084493686 | -0.4477619683689 |
| 106 | 26.8549 | 26.7918366696757 | -0.0157658325810478 | 0.063063330324271 | -0.5211264212921 |
| 107 | 27.0158 | 27.0302830125227 | -0.0144830125226532 | -0.0144830125226727 | 0.290944503000938 |
| 108 | 26.9188 | 26.9333520066592 | -0.0145520066591987 | -0.0145520066592184 | -0.095374378357103 |
| 109 | 26.4966 | 26.5114925647148 | -0.0148925647147603 | -0.0148925647147809 | -0.471165862111062 |
| 110 | 26.785 | 26.7996393989685 | -0.0146393989684372 | -0.0146393989684571 | 0.350550364352526 |
| 111 | 26.8398 | 26.7812919276302 | -0.0146270180924363 | 0.0585080723698248 | -0.00431617583572449 |
| 112 | 26.4478 | 26.4638873599685 | -0.0160873599685169 | -0.0160873599685374 | -0.346687060303721 |
| 113 | 25.1728 | 25.1898936850186 | -0.017093685018531 | -0.0170936850185544 | -1.45509697808214 |
| 114 | 24.8784 | 24.8957151756850 | -0.017315175685016 | -0.0173151756850401 | -0.320520818536446 |
| 115 | 25.4015 | 25.4183838786582 | -0.0168838786581772 | -0.0168838786582000 | 0.624631897486044 |
| 116 | 25.7716 | 25.7002496455275 | -0.0178375886180969 | 0.0713503544724752 | 0.347642342186239 |
| 117 | 26.1181 | 26.1338524137636 | -0.0157524137635734 | -0.0157524137635944 | 0.517127090355379 |
| 118 | 26.3969 | 26.4124268759281 | -0.0155268759280364 | -0.0155268759280568 | 0.340460118845051 |
| 119 | 26.6571 | 26.6724159142789 | -0.0153159142789076 | -0.0153159142789272 | 0.318700604984224 |
| 120 | 25.1839 | 25.2003305045564 | -0.0164305045564241 | -0.0164305045564473 | -1.68510477822649 |
| 121 | 23.8394 | 23.7907199396669 | -0.0121700150832423 | 0.0486800603330799 | -1.62075497610086 |
| 122 | 23.8619 | 23.8736486029201 | -0.0117486029200313 | -0.0117486029200587 | 0.108978106233011 |
| 123 | 24.2581 | 24.2695488611110 | -0.0114488611109307 | -0.0114488611109571 | 0.471537063720573 |
| 124 | 25.1098 | 25.1206151247970 | -0.0108151247970110 | -0.0108151247970352 | 0.997691342666033 |
| 125 | 26.1617 | 26.1717354365191 | -0.0100354365190306 | -0.0100354365190521 | 1.22836513292013 |
| 126 | 26.8087 | 26.7615171139343 | -0.0117957215164157 | 0.0471828860657409 | 0.697626631317971 |
| 127 | 25.6577 | 25.6740761837173 | -0.0163761837172688 | -0.0163761837172905 | -1.23307189753489 |
| 128 | 27.0982 | 27.1135473163577 | -0.0153473163576667 | -0.0153473163576845 | 1.68398892136697 |
| 129 | 27.4665 | 27.4815765701928 | -0.0150765701927448 | -0.0150765701927615 | 0.443454288556823 |
| 130 | 28.289 | 28.3034858956027 | -0.0144858956026562 | -0.0144858956026707 | 0.968147042093065 |
| 131 | 28.6933 | 28.6314919108446 | -0.0154520222888464 | 0.061808089155439 | 0.398250905421869 |
| 132 | 27.2401 | 27.2611050339787 | -0.0210050339786566 | -0.0210050339786728 | -1.55374796972025 |
| 133 | 27.2798 | 27.3007637661106 | -0.0209637661106230 | -0.0209637661106390 | 0.0701692816639394 |
| 134 | 27.6404 | 27.6611045515960 | -0.0207045515960337 | -0.0207045515960486 | 0.441051751541412 |
| 135 | 26.831 | 26.852239986387 | -0.0212399863869989 | -0.0212399863870161 | -0.91165781480543 |
| 136 | 26.2467 | 26.1689315649363 | -0.0194421087659109 | 0.0777684350637214 | -0.76969532962713 |
| 137 | 25.2212 | 25.2442179016024 | -0.0230179016024234 | -0.0230179016024448 | -1.03842076522797 |
| 138 | 25.3653 | 25.3882083879056 | -0.0229083879056121 | -0.0229083879056331 | 0.193174867004826 |
| 139 | 26.2592 | 26.2815079894862 | -0.0223079894862055 | -0.0223079894862238 | 1.05975706211745 |
| 140 | 27.2279 | 27.2495594240491 | -0.0216594240491006 | -0.021659424049116 | 1.14552610396128 |
| 141 | 26.3315 | 26.2550492229190 | -0.0191126942702373 | 0.0764507770810251 | -1.13078019658552 |
| 142 | 25.8981 | 25.9184230379432 | -0.0203230379432188 | -0.0203230379432385 | -0.364317169491147 |
| 143 | 26.6898 | 26.7096094243843 | -0.0198094243842789 | -0.0198094243842962 | 0.938644095027547 |
