| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 13328 | 13328 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 12873 | 13200.6096367379 | 3.82153253273492 | -327.609636737904 | -1.30910990853883 |
| 3 | 14000 | 13460.2526776262 | 21.9988247230845 | 539.747322373839 | 1.31766721298443 |
| 4 | 13477 | 13535.9869219786 | 26.277874817128 | -58.986921978551 | 0.311902103707869 |
| 5 | 14237 | 13789.3806643716 | 42.1622676227788 | 447.619335628361 | 1.58143733562182 |
| 6 | 13674 | 13834.078592661 | 42.3048950847059 | -160.078592660967 | 0.0192400330340184 |
| 7 | 13529 | 13756.1942529229 | 36.7695972831542 | -227.194252922852 | -0.93687537822856 |
| 8 | 14058 | 13824.1081499383 | 38.0414014924584 | 233.891850061721 | 0.243932471769008 |
| 9 | 12975 | 13582.4984025658 | 27.0307066217839 | -607.498402565783 | -2.18563596938166 |
| 10 | 14326 | 13729.746989131 | 31.8414502980676 | 596.253010869001 | 0.935635721837499 |
| 11 | 14008 | 13869.9949542679 | 36.3416485498737 | 138.005045732104 | 0.839892802844782 |
| 12 | 16193 | 14657.7514190394 | 68.755213093252 | 1535.24858096058 | 5.79778378158836 |
| 13 | 14483 | 14940.9687151515 | 73.377380178188 | -457.968715151515 | 1.70441403489681 |
| 14 | 14011 | 14973.3054700698 | 72.3109666910293 | -962.30547006981 | -0.329020889326419 |
| 15 | 15057 | 14910.2042358499 | 66.7406429671612 | 146.795764150072 | -1.01366963348165 |
| 16 | 14884 | 14966.7665877889 | 66.2096087984396 | -82.7665877888551 | -0.0721892393503844 |
| 17 | 15414 | 14983.3851640481 | 63.3971195434108 | 430.614835951888 | -0.352185117886043 |
| 18 | 14440 | 14841.9017303636 | 51.7598613125289 | -401.901730363601 | -1.49386943826633 |
| 19 | 14900 | 14877.5725168364 | 50.8781922105864 | 22.4274831636239 | -0.11989603799183 |
| 20 | 15074 | 14855.2830675441 | 47.0434594142997 | 218.716932455922 | -0.550705464864121 |
| 21 | 14442 | 14996.1390143459 | 51.7712115307658 | -554.139014345865 | 0.707319375157739 |
| 22 | 15307 | 15086.8745039745 | 53.6732623549166 | 220.125496025466 | 0.293174801681171 |
| 23 | 14938 | 15227.868197767 | 57.8172251877867 | -289.868197767031 | 0.655220534435506 |
| 24 | 17193 | 15465.1885465236 | 66.1192207811782 | 1727.81145347643 | 1.34613437870652 |
| 25 | 15528 | 15699.3575437439 | 73.7857505155111 | -171.357543743928 | 1.2638271906867 |
| 26 | 14765 | 15768.8974983431 | 73.58717256472 | -1003.89749834307 | -0.0318833447756195 |
| 27 | 15838 | 15770.2255891402 | 70.0234115495705 | 67.7744108598067 | -0.535995493635427 |
| 28 | 15723 | 15767.7944221004 | 66.2590562552327 | -44.7944221004366 | -0.529671473757331 |
| 29 | 16150 | 15725.5501465704 | 60.4288018101536 | 424.449853429631 | -0.789148680241657 |
| 30 | 15486 | 15780.1555510678 | 60.1118070078565 | -294.15555106783 | -0.0425744359084186 |
| 31 | 15986 | 15877.2291906558 | 62.1179397652223 | 108.770809344151 | 0.272498047473189 |
| 32 | 15983 | 15928.5484144626 | 61.5390144498325 | 54.4515855374259 | -0.080045018674125 |
| 33 | 15692 | 16100.1922535446 | 67.3476244206017 | -408.192253544631 | 0.816983219827962 |
| 34 | 16490 | 16281.8364701987 | 73.282935704625 | 208.163529801304 | 0.846801007906598 |
| 35 | 15686 | 16325.1017793724 | 71.7437757984775 | -639.101779372384 | -0.222074109652116 |
| 36 | 18897 | 16660.8629063613 | 85.1838145510168 | 2236.13709363873 | 1.95349648855418 |
| 37 | 16316 | 16722.8211862746 | 84.001356143972 | -406.821186274629 | -0.172023175770423 |
| 38 | 15636 | 16713.5770989985 | 79.2168401989263 | -1077.57709899848 | -0.690276606771244 |
| 39 | 17163 | 16831.7757044096 | 81.2428623161003 | 331.224295590397 | 0.28759250194718 |
| 40 | 16534 | 16796.0361420303 | 75.0810464605809 | -262.036142030262 | -0.859207161801417 |
| 41 | 16518 | 16595.7633516271 | 60.4295338298941 | -77.7633516271351 | -2.01772615679465 |
| 42 | 16375 | 16599.6935557236 | 57.4074952253095 | -224.693555723638 | -0.414444665990574 |
| 43 | 16290 | 16513.5740551263 | 49.7271504264102 | -223.574055126299 | -1.05580417219991 |
| 44 | 16352 | 16484.4587739234 | 45.5213984997473 | -132.458773923353 | -0.581262823896788 |
| 45 | 15943 | 16491.1322908291 | 43.4596829296471 | -548.132290829068 | -0.286538996885463 |
| 46 | 16362 | 16429.6652298811 | 37.9215767276276 | -67.66522988113 | -0.773355953674206 |
| 47 | 16393 | 16668.1804021539 | 48.4615484439636 | -275.180402153916 | 1.47741619524434 |
| 48 | 19051 | 16787.4624854918 | 52.173454206323 | 2263.53751450821 | 0.521645127149997 |
| 49 | 16747 | 16927.7722046481 | 56.7927429729416 | -180.772204648087 | 0.649524986414088 |
| 50 | 16320 | 17113.1041876349 | 63.5443813423608 | -793.104187634924 | 0.947300972692673 |
| 51 | 17910 | 17270.6208486085 | 68.4980147386156 | 639.379151391548 | 0.691871245273978 |
| 52 | 16961 | 17247.8655189121 | 63.6694078159669 | -286.865518912085 | -0.670858742767283 |
| 53 | 17480 | 17325.0681991968 | 64.3876898548985 | 154.931800803166 | 0.0993984412830568 |
| 54 | 17049 | 17312.0279432699 | 60.2710376907534 | -263.027943269908 | -0.568791384738454 |
| 55 | 16879 | 17242.3234089413 | 53.3581125867458 | -363.323408941296 | -0.955697432450974 |
| 56 | 17473 | 17351.4635822855 | 56.3226245407205 | 121.536417714526 | 0.410503251553979 |
| 57 | 16998 | 17478.6722031745 | 60.0841652725418 | -480.672203174544 | 0.521762647600326 |
| 58 | 17307 | 17568.3845250282 | 61.6536534916854 | -261.384525028165 | 0.218014324565491 |
| 59 | 17418 | 17693.2392677716 | 64.9966171301543 | -275.239267771586 | 0.464905000473736 |
| 60 | 20169 | 17860.1595332552 | 70.3829952876409 | 2308.84046674483 | 0.749746310477573 |
| 61 | 17871 | 18029.5456634985 | 75.6143967610804 | -158.54566349848 | 0.72843192824773 |
| 62 | 17226 | 18110.4404977468 | 75.8935798972956 | -884.440497746753 | 0.0388555961946465 |
| 63 | 19062 | 18234.4704221827 | 78.4411890649875 | 827.529577817334 | 0.354112665061781 |
| 64 | 17804 | 18242.0994628127 | 74.6892922338283 | -438.09946281268 | -0.520666569347948 |
| 65 | 19100 | 18466.8235865696 | 82.6460233575957 | 633.176413430385 | 1.10276756279848 |
| 66 | 18522 | 18650.0230083162 | 87.9815990619847 | -128.023008316197 | 0.73907938964685 |
| 67 | 18060 | 18689.5261419395 | 85.4088319075327 | -629.526141939464 | -0.35643001941373 |
| 68 | 18869 | 18776.596308097 | 85.4969823981948 | 92.4036919029653 | 0.0122184598281389 |
| 69 | 18127 | 18804.5211916295 | 82.44351504601 | -677.521191629486 | -0.423459023475086 |
| 70 | 18871 | 18980.9136859417 | 87.4236961553463 | -109.913685941735 | 0.690942602132287 |
| 71 | 18890 | 19161.2269928066 | 92.3453763200119 | -271.226992806564 | 0.683055885564242 |
| 72 | 21263 | 19208.3405796499 | 89.9495440092122 | 2054.65942035008 | -0.332602323904371 |
| 73 | 19547 | 19420.0267585594 | 96.3971823762235 | 126.973241440626 | 0.895246517153252 |
| 74 | 18450 | 19505.2337631969 | 95.804423108994 | -1055.23376319688 | -0.0822976503927405 |
| 75 | 20254 | 19548.7938303089 | 93.0361720161932 | 705.206169691117 | -0.384204563290023 |
| 76 | 19240 | 19679.9063164715 | 95.0543701994513 | -439.906316471472 | 0.279966476091825 |
| 77 | 20216 | 19740.4702891875 | 93.2257284919133 | 475.529710812537 | -0.253563785388247 |
| 78 | 19420 | 19722.5544704767 | 87.3320878930281 | -302.554470476721 | -0.81706657661076 |
| 79 | 19415 | 19854.6263278444 | 89.7046991187274 | -439.626327844352 | 0.32893991248899 |
| 80 | 20018 | 19957.1134722317 | 90.3825388367774 | 60.8865277682608 | 0.0939909063552975 |
| 81 | 18652 | 19856.4046774925 | 80.2503853612168 | -1204.40467749255 | -1.40517489469044 |
| 82 | 19978 | 19952.8814662505 | 81.110616415146 | 25.1185337494952 | 0.11931478439592 |
| 83 | 19509 | 19964.5283930735 | 77.428599412836 | -455.528393073551 | -0.510745644662623 |
| 84 | 21971 | 20006.5733394851 | 75.5532361442081 | 1964.42666051494 | -0.260161641720041 |
