Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.365156398722266 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 30 | 37 | -7 |
3 | 47 | 34.4439052089441 | 12.5560947910559 |
4 | 35 | 39.0288435648615 | -4.0288435648615 |
5 | 30 | 37.5576855577013 | -7.5576855577013 |
6 | 43 | 34.7979483167758 | 8.20205168322419 |
7 | 82 | 37.7929799715559 | 44.2070200284441 |
8 | 40 | 53.9354562033856 | -13.9354562033856 |
9 | 47 | 48.8468352016055 | -1.84683520160546 |
10 | 19 | 48.1724515103537 | -29.1724515103537 |
11 | 52 | 37.519944174933 | 14.480055825067 |
12 | 136 | 42.8074292133118 | 93.1925707866882 |
13 | 80 | 76.8372927494488 | 3.16270725055122 |
14 | 42 | 77.9921755392729 | -35.9921755392729 |
15 | 54 | 64.8494023371723 | -10.8494023371723 |
16 | 66 | 60.8876736514415 | 5.11232634855845 |
17 | 81 | 62.7544723299741 | 18.2455276700259 |
18 | 63 | 69.4169435067482 | -6.41694350674823 |
19 | 137 | 67.0737555250198 | 69.9262444749802 |
20 | 72 | 92.6077711336764 | -20.6077711336764 |
21 | 107 | 85.0827116408104 | 21.9172883591896 |
22 | 58 | 93.0859497278095 | -35.0859497278095 |
23 | 36 | 80.2740906794521 | -44.2740906794521 |
24 | 52 | 64.1071231702403 | -12.1071231702403 |
25 | 79 | 59.6861296745085 | 19.3138703254915 |
26 | 77 | 66.7387130079538 | 10.2612869920462 |
27 | 54 | 70.485687612225 | -16.4856876122250 |
28 | 84 | 64.4658332932847 | 19.5341667067153 |
29 | 48 | 71.5988592599492 | -23.5988592599492 |
30 | 96 | 62.9815847986326 | 33.0184152013674 |
31 | 83 | 75.0384703850804 | 7.96152961491958 |
32 | 66 | 77.9456738675851 | -11.9456738675851 |
33 | 61 | 73.583634617787 | -12.5836346177871 |
34 | 53 | 68.9886399179191 | -15.9886399179191 |
35 | 30 | 63.1502857450247 | -33.1502857450247 |
36 | 74 | 51.0452467857574 | 22.9547532142426 |
37 | 69 | 59.4273218030286 | 9.5726781969714 |
38 | 59 | 62.9228464995618 | -3.92284649956183 |
39 | 42 | 61.4903939990416 | -19.4903939990416 |
40 | 65 | 54.3733519166735 | 10.6266480833265 |
41 | 70 | 58.2537404612699 | 11.7462595387301 |
42 | 100 | 62.5429622928896 | 37.4570377071104 |
43 | 63 | 76.2206392888222 | -13.2206392888222 |
44 | 105 | 71.3930382573098 | 33.6069617426902 |
45 | 82 | 83.6648353792675 | -1.66483537926752 |
46 | 81 | 83.0569100877088 | -2.05691008770877 |
47 | 75 | 82.3058162075855 | -7.30581620758554 |
48 | 102 | 79.6380506714968 | 22.3619493285032 |
49 | 121 | 87.8036595567029 | 33.1963404432971 |
50 | 98 | 99.9255156837356 | -1.92551568373557 |
51 | 76 | 99.2224013109794 | -23.2224013109794 |
52 | 77 | 90.742592878579 | -13.7425928785790 |
53 | 63 | 85.7243971539308 | -22.7243971539308 |
54 | 37 | 77.4264381260669 | -40.4264381260669 |
55 | 35 | 62.6644655667838 | -27.6644655667838 |
56 | 23 | 52.5626089478409 | -29.5626089478409 |
57 | 40 | 41.7676331276127 | -1.76763312761265 |
58 | 29 | 41.1221705804714 | -12.1221705804714 |
59 | 37 | 36.6956824266095 | 0.30431757339052 |
60 | 51 | 36.8068059357767 | 14.1931940642233 |
61 | 20 | 41.9895415666347 | -21.9895415666347 |
62 | 28 | 33.9599197586088 | -5.95991975860879 |
63 | 13 | 31.7836169228815 | -18.7836169228815 |
64 | 22 | 24.9246590123435 | -2.92465901234348 |
65 | 25 | 23.8567010599055 | 1.14329894009448 |
66 | 13 | 24.2741839835334 | -11.2741839835334 |
67 | 16 | 20.1573435615741 | -4.15734356157409 |
68 | 13 | 18.6392629583785 | -5.6392629583785 |
69 | 16 | 16.5800500050491 | -0.580050005049131 |
70 | 17 | 16.3682410341266 | 0.631758965873445 |
71 | 9 | 16.5989318629654 | -7.5989318629654 |
72 | 17 | 13.8241332697491 | 3.17586673025092 |
73 | 25 | 14.9838213277894 | 10.0161786722106 |
74 | 14 | 18.6412930606926 | -4.64129306069257 |
75 | 8 | 16.9464952012354 | -8.94649520123542 |
76 | 7 | 13.6796252323663 | -6.67962523236626 |
77 | 10 | 11.240517337701 | -1.24051733770101 |
78 | 7 | 10.7875344941136 | -3.78753449411358 |
79 | 10 | 9.4044920382067 | 0.595507961793299 |
80 | 3 | 9.62194558094558 | -6.62194558094558 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
81 | 7.20389978007267 | -36.9330002321243 | 51.3407997922696 |
82 | 7.20389978007267 | -39.7835399067165 | 54.1913394668618 |
83 | 7.20389978007267 | -42.4707721760925 | 56.8785717362378 |
84 | 7.20389978007267 | -45.019912600733 | 59.4277121608784 |
85 | 7.20389978007267 | -47.4502869325532 | 61.8580864926985 |
86 | 7.20389978007267 | -49.7770941639746 | 64.1848937241199 |
87 | 7.20389978007267 | -52.0125440213287 | 66.420343581474 |
88 | 7.20389978007267 | -54.1666205217587 | 68.574420081904 |
89 | 7.20389978007267 | -56.24761168932 | 70.6554112494653 |
90 | 7.20389978007267 | -58.2624874227007 | 72.670286982846 |
91 | 7.20389978007267 | -60.2171755526185 | 74.6249751127638 |
92 | 7.20389978007267 | -62.1167677343807 | 76.524567294526 |