| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 13328 | 13328 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 12873 | 13200.6819478145 | 3.82578918514634 | -327.68194781448 | -1.30937963159356 |
| 3 | 14000 | 13460.2391750261 | 22.0031954161445 | 539.760824973865 | 1.31765525270691 |
| 4 | 13477 | 13535.9804208991 | 26.285105942988 | -58.9804208991019 | 0.311977226123143 |
| 5 | 14237 | 13789.3673061054 | 42.1871681780315 | 447.632693894581 | 1.58162610681454 |
| 6 | 13674 | 13834.0894067324 | 42.3300535845046 | -160.089406732357 | 0.0192376923718027 |
| 7 | 13529 | 13756.2214150021 | 36.7762045798851 | -227.221415002069 | -0.937057013630214 |
| 8 | 14058 | 13824.1263117638 | 38.052962469584 | 233.873688236230 | 0.243826417267901 |
| 9 | 12975 | 13582.4987752674 | 26.9841057964398 | -607.498775267415 | -2.18590323595731 |
| 10 | 14326 | 13729.7204596292 | 31.8225898323746 | 596.279540370772 | 0.935766933751675 |
| 11 | 14008 | 13869.9742390004 | 36.3499767303937 | 138.025760999587 | 0.840035252978843 |
| 12 | 16193 | 14657.8365021228 | 68.9600450982356 | 1535.16349787723 | 5.79802749363536 |
| 13 | 14483 | 14941.1548111521 | 73.6530809516055 | -458.154811152081 | 1.70324729921804 |
| 14 | 14011 | 14973.5337540679 | 72.56610002109 | -962.533754067875 | -0.330836466619584 |
| 15 | 15057 | 14910.4226513923 | 66.9424354256193 | 146.577348607663 | -1.01555961592100 |
| 16 | 14884 | 14966.9570940873 | 66.3965410181129 | -82.9570940873432 | -0.0738137548231807 |
| 17 | 15414 | 14983.5563712051 | 63.5594131342866 | 430.443628794902 | -0.353622835038707 |
| 18 | 14440 | 14842.0470949073 | 51.8576431761596 | -402.04709490728 | -1.49507756240521 |
| 19 | 14900 | 14877.7132990105 | 50.965892265038 | 22.2867009895442 | -0.120639961851066 |
| 20 | 15074 | 14855.4215561017 | 47.1049651949951 | 218.578443898257 | -0.551266726939755 |
| 21 | 14442 | 14996.3157694375 | 51.8605348170913 | -554.315769437457 | 0.706960235998102 |
| 22 | 15307 | 15087.0676218772 | 53.7716010293883 | 219.932378122800 | 0.292538866816767 |
| 23 | 14938 | 15228.0596750919 | 57.9402455145203 | -290.059675091854 | 0.654261787956202 |
| 24 | 17193 | 15465.3750700089 | 66.2993886136976 | 1727.62492999106 | 1.34474028856297 |
| 25 | 15528 | 15699.5442321763 | 74.0185876088331 | -171.544232176331 | 1.26208555258566 |
| 26 | 14765 | 15769.0633384170 | 73.806527430363 | -1004.06333841696 | -0.0337794511447212 |
| 27 | 15838 | 15770.3671276436 | 70.2059502489409 | 67.6328723564073 | -0.537689018234094 |
| 28 | 15723 | 15767.9178383391 | 66.4079039138715 | -44.9178383390633 | -0.531044660759293 |
| 29 | 16150 | 15725.6628456300 | 60.5361068853177 | 424.337154370023 | -0.790177339025636 |
| 30 | 15486 | 15780.2862005268 | 60.2124988847452 | -294.286200526844 | -0.0432200309184316 |
| 31 | 15986 | 15877.3981740204 | 62.22620836171 | 108.601825979555 | 0.271983421683458 |
| 32 | 15983 | 15928.7468785298 | 61.6397511119189 | 54.2531214702492 | -0.0806101036648515 |
| 33 | 15692 | 16100.4317237832 | 67.4797360289696 | -408.431723783209 | 0.81632027217282 |
| 34 | 16490 | 16282.1067353452 | 73.4467240256002 | 207.893264654839 | 0.845799882141688 |
| 35 | 15686 | 16325.3374782275 | 71.8873726200522 | -639.337478227512 | -0.223472602865751 |
| 36 | 18897 | 16661.1131040203 | 85.4097568335573 | 2235.88689597968 | 1.95194819402148 |
| 37 | 16316 | 16723.0230360093 | 84.2053883081234 | -407.023036009263 | -0.174005251309701 |
| 38 | 15636 | 16713.7172262334 | 79.3759710442796 | -1077.71722623338 | -0.692066109425585 |
| 39 | 17163 | 16831.8964758517 | 81.4053879883748 | 331.103524148294 | 0.286209760715423 |
| 40 | 16534 | 16796.1361257456 | 75.1967487352262 | -262.136125745639 | -0.86037097664727 |
| 41 | 16518 | 16595.8167794313 | 60.4514073538403 | -77.8167794313284 | -2.01850104025196 |
| 42 | 16375 | 16599.7307850088 | 57.4101151607113 | -224.730785008773 | -0.414637749542108 |
| 43 | 16290 | 16513.5878467130 | 49.6847772582255 | -223.587846712959 | -1.05576587816445 |
| 44 | 16352 | 16484.4540742751 | 45.4561734049545 | -132.454074275099 | -0.580951664466268 |
| 45 | 15943 | 16491.1092344588 | 43.3849047873067 | -548.109234458764 | -0.286122147509981 |
| 46 | 16362 | 16429.5983468821 | 37.815399736733 | -67.598346882089 | -0.772925383912537 |
| 47 | 16393 | 16668.1332559756 | 48.4259559578775 | -275.133255975595 | 1.47794698241834 |
| 48 | 19051 | 16787.415970105 | 52.1624974509109 | 2263.58402989500 | 0.521772960478365 |
| 49 | 16747 | 16927.7340247171 | 56.8111048941409 | -180.734024717103 | 0.649499979507535 |
| 50 | 16320 | 17113.0928791237 | 63.6042499082173 | -793.092879123735 | 0.947131566555392 |
| 51 | 17910 | 17270.6418196161 | 68.5861444166098 | 639.358180383852 | 0.69150670359207 |
| 52 | 16961 | 17247.8924516135 | 63.7246326602895 | -286.892451613550 | -0.6713115311164 |
| 53 | 17480 | 17325.1191475745 | 64.44543616219 | 154.880852425541 | 0.0991472221876955 |
| 54 | 17049 | 17312.0858576788 | 60.3022709007103 | -263.085857678771 | -0.569037817998455 |
| 55 | 16879 | 17242.3671612108 | 53.3470467335768 | -363.367161210762 | -0.955814972472107 |
| 56 | 17473 | 17351.5209957029 | 56.3300330641291 | 121.479004297149 | 0.410589954146277 |
| 57 | 16998 | 17478.7527685271 | 60.1143242071860 | -480.752768527121 | 0.521754101189441 |
| 58 | 17307 | 17568.4741109014 | 61.691898610739 | -261.474110901357 | 0.217805644509610 |
| 59 | 17418 | 17693.3269836827 | 65.0524784499592 | -275.326983682686 | 0.464495230746059 |
| 60 | 20169 | 17860.2494361084 | 70.4679492648824 | 2308.75056389164 | 0.749166786818708 |
| 61 | 17871 | 18029.6405522991 | 75.7261447209669 | -158.640552299091 | 0.727666511577185 |
| 62 | 17226 | 18110.5245115710 | 76.0004589058506 | -884.52451157104 | 0.037944235448267 |
| 63 | 19062 | 18234.5572700254 | 78.5575403847418 | 827.442729974551 | 0.353264630573422 |
| 64 | 17804 | 18242.1787611418 | 74.7770526629889 | -438.178761141842 | -0.521457348362567 |
| 65 | 19100 | 18466.9457325059 | 82.7777917258623 | 633.05426749405 | 1.10218502294869 |
| 66 | 18522 | 18650.2015252305 | 88.1403602173717 | -128.201525230506 | 0.73835603786959 |
| 67 | 18060 | 18689.7287819752 | 85.5454667378949 | -629.728781975174 | -0.357337570795217 |
| 68 | 18869 | 18776.8080028470 | 85.6273208044576 | 92.1919971530416 | 0.0112775352566685 |
| 69 | 18127 | 18804.7135859381 | 82.5480841697832 | -677.713585938127 | -0.42445991711634 |
| 70 | 18871 | 18981.1065816888 | 87.5518061361308 | -110.106581688841 | 0.690013654175918 |
| 71 | 18890 | 19161.4235663533 | 92.4956725488576 | -271.423566353257 | 0.681978362131513 |
| 72 | 21263 | 19208.5077582331 | 90.07621689668 | 2054.49224176685 | -0.333844069038362 |
| 73 | 19547 | 19420.1933481326 | 96.5548995781493 | 126.806651867427 | 0.894098448192825 |
| 74 | 18450 | 19505.3874021292 | 95.9495720151657 | -1055.38740212923 | -0.0835331354626137 |
| 75 | 20254 | 19548.9265106949 | 93.156264971797 | 705.073489305116 | -0.385335983346102 |
| 76 | 19240 | 19680.0400912674 | 95.179909819775 | -440.040091267412 | 0.279026604563751 |
| 77 | 20216 | 19740.5963761845 | 93.3334981259738 | 475.403623815547 | -0.254484208719289 |
| 78 | 19420 | 19722.6563448177 | 87.3984851366954 | -302.656344817737 | -0.817847173612272 |
| 79 | 19415 | 19854.7369503513 | 89.781836279546 | -439.736950351284 | 0.328439734536982 |
| 80 | 20018 | 19957.2357168735 | 90.4601293098559 | 60.7642831264537 | 0.0934873708840648 |
| 81 | 18652 | 19856.4860911417 | 80.262607332886 | -1204.48609114171 | -1.40571677346299 |
| 82 | 19978 | 19952.9388984069 | 81.125926290822 | 25.0611015931302 | 0.119020635507625 |
| 83 | 19509 | 19964.5467537368 | 77.4195110990556 | -455.54675373678 | -0.51102528352137 |
| 84 | 21971 | 20006.5581952663 | 75.5318898164371 | 1964.44180473367 | -0.260279917278426 |
