Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.6515049537628 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
3 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
4 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
5 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
6 | 9.94 | 10 | -0.0600000000000005 |
7 | 10.06 | 9.96090970277423 | 0.0990902972257697 |
8 | 10.06 | 10.0254675222866 | 0.034532477713352 |
9 | 10.06 | 10.0479656025826 | 0.0120343974174002 |
10 | 10.06 | 10.0558060721156 | 0.00419392788441364 |
11 | 10.06 | 10.058538436908 | 0.00146156309199341 |
12 | 10.06 | 10.0594906525027 | 0.000509347497322565 |
13 | 10.06 | 10.0598224949204 | 0.000177505079630436 |
14 | 10.06 | 10.0599381403591 | 6.18596409331928e-05 |
15 | 10.06 | 10.0599784422216 | 2.15577784263843e-05 |
16 | 10.06 | 10.059992487221 | 7.51277898913827e-06 |
17 | 10.06 | 10.0599973818337 | 2.61816626156985e-06 |
18 | 10.06 | 10.059999087582 | 9.12417972287471e-07 |
19 | 10.06 | 10.0599996820269 | 3.1797314292703e-07 |
20 | 10.06 | 10.0599998891879 | 1.10812065301502e-07 |
21 | 9.94 | 10.0599999613825 | -0.119999961382545 |
22 | 9.94 | 9.98181939209047 | -0.0418193920904724 |
23 | 9.94 | 9.95457385098018 | -0.0145738509801809 |
24 | 9.94 | 9.94507891487119 | -0.00507891487119139 |
25 | 9.94 | 9.94176997667287 | -0.00176997667287004 |
26 | 9.94 | 9.94061682810245 | -0.00061682810245145 |
27 | 10.06 | 9.94021496153808 | 0.119785038461917 |
28 | 10.06 | 10.0182555074827 | 0.0417444925173101 |
29 | 9.94 | 10.04545225115 | -0.105452251150032 |
30 | 10.06 | 9.97674958714035 | 0.0832504128596536 |
31 | 10.06 | 10.0309876435212 | 0.0290123564787912 |
32 | 10.06 | 10.0498893374875 | 0.0101106625125258 |
33 | 10.18 | 10.0564764842002 | 0.123523515799791 |
34 | 10.28 | 10.13695266665 | 0.14304733335003 |
35 | 10.28 | 10.2301487129501 | 0.0498512870499273 |
36 | 10.18 | 10.2626270734146 | -0.0826270734145513 |
37 | 10.28 | 10.20879512577 | 0.0712048742299505 |
38 | 10.28 | 10.2551854540629 | 0.0248145459370814 |
39 | 10.28 | 10.2713522536663 | 0.00864774633369869 |
40 | 10.18 | 10.2769863032416 | -0.0969863032415894 |
41 | 10.28 | 10.2137992462326 | 0.066200753767447 |
42 | 10.28 | 10.2569293652549 | 0.0230706347451246 |
43 | 10.18 | 10.2719599980778 | -0.0919599980777761 |
44 | 10.18 | 10.2120476037821 | -0.0320476037820878 |
45 | 10.18 | 10.1911684311618 | -0.0111684311618294 |
46 | 10.28 | 10.1838921429341 | 0.0961078570658618 |
47 | 10.28 | 10.2465068879081 | 0.0334931120919251 |
48 | 10.18 | 10.2683278163529 | -0.088327816352896 |
49 | 10.18 | 10.2107818064439 | -0.0307818064439331 |
50 | 10.18 | 10.1907273070599 | -0.010727307059943 |
51 | 10.18 | 10.1837384133699 | -0.00373841336985592 |
52 | 10.18 | 10.1813028185402 | -0.00130281854018222 |
53 | 10.18 | 10.1804540258074 | -0.000454025807400171 |
54 | 10.28 | 10.1801582257447 | 0.0998417742552569 |
55 | 10.28 | 10.2452056362645 | 0.0347943637354895 |
56 | 10.28 | 10.2678743366012 | 0.012125663398793 |
57 | 10.18 | 10.2757742663732 | -0.09577426637318 |
58 | 10.18 | 10.2133768573881 | -0.0333768573880544 |
59 | 10.18 | 10.1916316694587 | -0.0116316694587031 |
60 | 10.28 | 10.1840535791858 | 0.0959464208141725 |
61 | 10.18 | 10.2465631476421 | -0.0665631476420714 |
62 | 10.18 | 10.2031969272152 | -0.023196927215217 |
63 | 10.28 | 10.1880840142224 | 0.0919159857775718 |
64 | 10.18 | 10.2479677342865 | -0.0679677342865066 |
65 | 10.18 | 10.2036864187028 | -0.0236864187028143 |
66 | 10.18 | 10.188254599581 | -0.00825459958103103 |
67 | 10.28 | 10.1828766870627 | 0.0971233129373381 |
68 | 10.28 | 10.2461530065672 | 0.0338469934328085 |
69 | 10.28 | 10.2682044904586 | 0.011795509541356 |
70 | 10.28 | 10.275889323357 | 0.00411067664300546 |
71 | 10.28 | 10.2785674495532 | 0.00143255044677026 |
72 | 10.28 | 10.2795007632658 | 0.000499236734183839 |
73 | 10.18 | 10.2798260184712 | -0.0998260184712372 |
74 | 10.18 | 10.2147888729228 | -0.0347888729228085 |
75 | 10.18 | 10.1921237498778 | -0.0121237498777749 |
76 | 10.18 | 10.1842250667742 | -0.00422506677422341 |
77 | 10.18 | 10.1814724148408 | -0.00147241484083871 |
78 | 10.18 | 10.180513129278 | -0.000513129278038704 |
79 | 10.18 | 10.1801788230115 | -0.00017882301147587 |
80 | 10.18 | 10.1800623189337 | -6.23189336526053e-05 |
81 | 10.18 | 10.1800217178397 | -2.17178396653139e-05 |
82 | 10.28 | 10.1800075685595 | 0.0999924314404605 |
83 | 10.28 | 10.2451531329818 | 0.0348468670182136 |
84 | 10.28 | 10.2678560394673 | 0.0121439605327343 |
85 | 10.28 | 10.2757678899126 | 0.00423211008735791 |
86 | 10.28 | 10.2785251305994 | 0.00147486940057462 |
87 | 10.28 | 10.2794860153201 | 0.000513984679946233 |
88 | 10.28 | 10.2798208788852 | 0.000179121114802783 |
89 | 10.28 | 10.2799375771788 | 6.2422821185848e-05 |
90 | 10.18 | 10.279978245956 | -0.099978245956045 |
91 | 10.28 | 10.2148419234472 | 0.0651580765528337 |
92 | 10.28 | 10.257292733099 | 0.0227072669010067 |
93 | 10.28 | 10.2720866299714 | 0.0079133700285876 |
94 | 10.28 | 10.277242229746 | 0.00275777025400537 |
95 | 10.18 | 10.2790389307278 | -0.0990389307278186 |
96 | 10.28 | 10.2145145767433 | 0.0654854232567263 |
97 | 10.28 | 10.2571786543943 | 0.0228213456057151 |
98 | 10.28 | 10.2720468741079 | 0.00795312589205821 |
99 | 10.18 | 10.2772283750245 | -0.0972283750245158 |
100 | 10.18 | 10.2138836070497 | -0.0338836070497361 |
101 | 10.28 | 10.1918082692055 | 0.0881917307945184 |
102 | 10.28 | 10.249265618699 | 0.0307343813009737 |
103 | 10.28 | 10.2692892203674 | 0.0107107796325554 |
104 | 10.28 | 10.2762673463567 | 0.00373265364328468 |
105 | 10.28 | 10.278699188696 | 0.00130081130400406 |
106 | 10.28 | 10.2795466737045 | 0.00045332629553485 |
107 | 10.28 | 10.2798420180317 | 0.000157981968323284 |
108 | 10.18 | 10.2799449440666 | -0.0999449440666442 |
109 | 10.28 | 10.2148303179037 | 0.0651696820963199 |
110 | 10.28 | 10.2572886886246 | 0.0227113113754207 |
111 | 10.28 | 10.2720852204921 | 0.00791477950788533 |
112 | 10.42 | 10.2772417385494 | 0.142758261450558 |
113 | 10.42 | 10.370249453075 | 0.0497505469249546 |
114 | 10.42 | 10.4026621808491 | 0.0173378191509386 |
115 | 10.42 | 10.4139578559133 | 0.00604214408665804 |
116 | 10.42 | 10.4178943427171 | 0.00210565728285239 |
117 | 10.42 | 10.4192661888679 | 0.000733811132146656 |
118 | 10.42 | 10.4197442704556 | 0.000255729544427652 |
119 | 10.42 | 10.4199108795206 | 8.91204794086775e-05 |
120 | 10.42 | 10.4199689419544 | 3.10580455913367e-05 |
121 | 10.42 | 10.419989176425 | 1.08235750335695e-05 |
122 | 10.34 | 10.4199962280377 | -0.079996228037718 |
123 | 10.34 | 10.3678782891888 | -0.0278782891888056 |
124 | 10.34 | 10.3497154456799 | -0.00971544567986626 |
125 | 10.42 | 10.3433857846914 | 0.0766142153085809 |
126 | 10.42 | 10.3933003254936 | 0.026699674506391 |
127 | 10.42 | 10.4106952956984 | 0.00930470430162345 |
128 | 10.42 | 10.4167573566442 | 0.00324264335581859 |
129 | 10.34 | 10.4188699548538 | -0.0788699548537828 |
130 | 10.42 | 10.3674857885635 | 0.052514211436506 |
131 | 10.42 | 10.4016990574573 | 0.018300942542675 |
132 | 10.42 | 10.4136222121824 | 0.00637778781759302 |
133 | 10.42 | 10.4177773725396 | 0.00222262746038382 |
134 | 10.42 | 10.4192254253404 | 0.000774574659574867 |
135 | 10.42 | 10.4197300645682 | 0.000269935431802537 |
136 | 10.42 | 10.4199059288392 | 9.40711607864131e-05 |
137 | 10.42 | 10.4199672166665 | 3.27833335269645e-05 |
138 | 10.42 | 10.4199885751707 | 1.14248293332508e-05 |
139 | 10.42 | 10.4199960185036 | 3.98149642677481e-06 |
140 | 10.42 | 10.4199986124682 | 1.38753178191564e-06 |
141 | 10.42 | 10.419999516452 | 4.83547951901642e-07 |
142 | 10.42 | 10.4199998314859 | 1.68514066700709e-07 |
143 | 10.42 | 10.4199999412737 | 5.87263180307218e-08 |
144 | 10.42 | 10.4199999795342 | 2.04658316960149e-08 |
145 | 10.42 | 10.4199999928678 | 7.13224146409175e-09 |
146 | 10.42 | 10.4199999975144 | 2.48555132031925e-09 |
147 | 10.34 | 10.4199999991338 | -0.079999999133797 |
148 | 10.34 | 10.3678796033971 | -0.0278796033971087 |
149 | 10.34 | 10.3497159036749 | -0.0097159036749499 |
150 | 10.34 | 10.3433859443004 | -0.00338594430043848 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
151 | 10.3411799848155 | 10.244646564867 | 10.437713404764 |
152 | 10.3411799848155 | 10.2259666826561 | 10.456393286975 |
153 | 10.3411799848155 | 10.2099187612115 | 10.4724412084196 |
154 | 10.3411799848155 | 10.1956296064252 | 10.4867303632058 |
155 | 10.3411799848155 | 10.1826230030169 | 10.4997369666142 |