Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.859090117482425
beta0.0739570283340592
gamma1


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
13299.5239.39449786324860.105502136752
14347.4339.4926874107717.9073125892287
15338.3339.929491887132-1.62949188713173
16327.7329.223957559468-1.52395755946770
17351.6353.166427606621-1.56642760662055
18396.6400.389554566451-3.78955456645105
19438.8384.59954292545154.200457074549
20395.6427.763510672247-32.1635106722474
21363.5393.902014378528-30.4020143785276
22378.8345.07635395866733.7236460413326
23357410.295571899362-53.295571899362
24369383.104598762058-14.1045987620581
25464.8456.9763496283497.82365037165056
26479.1502.592157461915-23.4921574619154
27431.3470.50284979556-39.2028497955599
28366.5420.938726552717-54.4387265527173
29326.3389.460118106052-63.1601181060516
30355.1369.585513312119-14.4855133121194
31331.6338.228558771563-6.62855877156301
32261.3298.551050153206-37.2510501532062
33249241.8295371107057.17046288929504
34205.5217.967581386629-12.4675813866291
35235.6211.95733168448823.6426683155119
36240.9241.988791886433-1.08879188643309
37264.9316.56232599333-51.6623259933298
38253.8289.312251522296-35.512251522296
39232.3226.5697412314115.73025876858878
40193.8198.202113954364-4.40211395436415
41177196.401440515527-19.4014405155267
42213.2211.6793624025211.52063759747909
43207.2186.89836567152320.3016343284766
44180.6159.47044742168521.1295525783147
45188.6156.30095820604832.2990417939525
46175.4149.99447971844325.4055202815573
47199182.75018236708116.2498176329190
48179.6203.617154073341-24.0171540733411
49225.8250.581620945858-24.7816209458582
50234249.622858322169-15.6228583221695
51200.2211.964952702772-11.7649527027719
52183.6168.21438552808215.3856144719179
53178.2183.631603723902-5.43160372390227
54203.2217.078589038250-13.8785890382498
55208.5183.95588261146724.5441173885333
56191.8162.80003652859028.9999634714103
57172.8170.9766184539561.82338154604352
58148138.5919296298129.40807037018797
59159.4156.3723356699593.02766433004098
60154.5159.424275934008-4.92427593400774
61213.2223.114609211209-9.91460921120859
62196.4237.594180801579-41.1941808015789
63182.8178.2627997603144.53720023968557
64176.4153.12978183563423.2702181643663
65153.6173.674935132256-20.0749351322562
66173.2193.709042121904-20.5090421219044
67171160.24037388480510.7596261151946
68151.2126.93052816101624.2694718389843
69161.9125.97343500232635.9265649976736
70157.2124.88167557349232.3183244265076
71201.7163.82707632673537.8729236732654
72236.4200.28973145668436.1102685433159
73356.1305.73241363326750.3675863667326
74398.3378.62546212403519.6745378759645
75403.7392.93037829380510.7696217061948
76384.6391.087800001056-6.48780000105558
77365.8393.366236037334-27.566236037334
78368.1419.833367569935-51.7333675699348
79367.9374.892290362618-6.9922903626179
80347338.0537741139038.94622588609707
81343.3334.4198121734388.88018782656167
82292.9316.710509488063-23.8105094880632
83311.5311.778862805985-0.278862805984659
84300.9316.353298389024-15.4532983890244
85366.9377.367075471291-10.4670754712908
86356.9387.667386022286-30.7673860222865
87329.7348.173160300275-18.4731603002754
88316.2307.7085006900318.49149930996879
89269309.768910811536-40.7689108115355
90289.3310.533091409775-21.2330914097747
91266.2289.081542105592-22.8815421055921
92253.6230.81166774212022.7883322578801
93233.8229.9125323951073.88746760489278
94228.4193.84288977483534.5571102251653
95253.6236.61385954397216.9861404560275
96260.1249.22293544592410.8770645540759
97306.6330.573069195610-23.9730691956096
98309.2322.565480154239-13.3654801542392
99309.5297.01456138709412.4854386129063
100271286.173816735979-15.1738167359792
101279.9258.68681702114321.2131829788573
102317.9317.1145787306180.785421269382084
103298.4317.408182699649-19.0081826996491
104246.7272.208856180445-25.5088561804449
105227.3227.393813157513-0.0938131575134094
106209.1192.21164188137916.8883581186212
107259.9216.19113515039443.7088648496064
108266251.457955826314.5420441737002
109320.6331.840111835233-11.2401118352329
110308.5337.86919551686-29.3691955168601
111282.2302.798685634973-20.5986856349726
112262.7258.1226023263984.57739767360204
113263.5252.47023978887111.0297602111286
114313.1298.36331492353114.7366850764687
115284.3307.831866174978-23.5318661749784
116252.6257.52153194813-4.92153194812991
117250.3234.97337077228615.3266292277141
118246.5217.41073864866729.0892613513326
119312.7258.40540905845954.2945909415409
120333.2302.08322849755231.1167715024483
121446.4397.55149551407448.8485044859261
122511.6460.94521116666550.6547888333353
123515.5509.2404135232096.25958647679107
124506.4506.2740724246460.125927575354126
125483.2512.512377188537-29.3123771885368
126522.3536.512774692833-14.2127746928335
127509.8526.121899968517-16.3218999685168
128460.7495.489232971975-34.7892329719745
129405.8459.098800682701-53.2988006827012
130375389.123472139652-14.1234721396516
131378.5398.404078112982-19.9040781129816
132406.8372.21618999881934.5838100011813
133467.8470.525432412864-2.7254324128636
134469.8483.954123473299-14.1541234732989
135429.8460.286335606010-30.4863356060103
136355.8412.522391646766-56.7223916467659
137332.7349.797567198470-17.0975671984697
138378371.2181956989216.7818043010787
139360.5364.699191314863-4.19919131486256
140334.7328.7818508090875.91814919091331
141319.5314.2439783903755.25602160962535
142323.1293.30246578655229.7975342134482
143363.6335.50093976776728.0990602322334
144352.1357.280180836365-5.18018083636463
145411.9412.695121167524-0.79512116752386
146388.6422.81814224741-34.2181422474104
147416.4374.9838357368341.41616426317
148360.7385.233730369838-24.5337303698381
149338357.730557989373-19.7305579893726
150417.2382.07192241624535.1280775837548
151388.4401.976465130287-13.5764651302866
152371.1362.4519171334038.64808286659706
153331.5353.362534337185-21.8625343371849
154353.7314.05541302731639.6445869726841
155396.7366.57323390522930.1267660947705
156447387.63308786344359.3669121365567
157533.5505.44674899561328.0532510043871
158565.4543.80544343761821.5945565623821
159542.3566.28495384575-23.9849538457499
160488.7518.609150799627-29.9091507996273
161467.1494.376039391603-27.276039391603
162531.3526.6970884566984.60291154330207
163496.1518.307181163617-22.2071811636166
164444478.743739592739-34.7437395927390
165403.4429.564702208665-26.1647022086655
166386.3396.442329515027-10.1423295150270
167394.1402.898035530515-8.79803553051534
168404.1390.215574175913.8844258241000
169462.1457.2308840540764.86911594592397
170448.1465.976809417712-17.8768094177124
171432.3436.830999113435-4.53099911343531
172386.3394.975883254861-8.67588325486065
173395.2380.64693002768914.5530699723114
174421.9447.344493179183-25.4444931791832
175382.9401.403746337647-18.5037463376473
176384.2355.53106048656628.6689395134337
177345.5358.342768894584-12.8427688945837
178323.4336.073935863074-12.6739358630738
179372.6337.53442842985735.0655715701430
180376365.50808892566610.4919110743336
181462.7427.900178185234.7998218148004
182487460.61742294146926.3825770585309
183444.2475.650295578912-31.4502955789123
184399.3412.65001012336-13.3500101233601
185394.9399.846762703077-4.94676270307656
186455.4445.18523678711910.2147632128815
187414434.151738608345-20.1517386083446
188375.5396.700384154204-21.2003841542037
189347350.841962139071-3.84196213907143
190339.4336.9228191706142.47718082938633
191385.8359.68248802308326.1175119769171
192378.8377.4937989240961.30620107590363
193451.8435.8236509406115.9763490593901
194446.1450.391690398502-4.29169039850217
195422.5428.182394150978-5.68239415097798
196383.1388.765764693693-5.66576469369301
197352.8383.132498938452-30.3324989384524
198445.3406.57026663676738.7297333632334
199367.5415.337997290189-47.837997290189
200355.1351.7780598017143.32194019828631
201326.2328.814714534768-2.61471453476753
202319.8316.3005086802153.49949131978502
203331.8342.794735054655-10.9947350546549
204340.9322.39431225760018.5056877423995
205394.1395.827214314555-1.72721431455511
206417.2389.46549335053127.7345066494692
207369.9393.743594079094-23.8435940790945
208349.2336.74328649326012.4567135067405
209321.4342.370587319696-20.9705873196964
210405.7383.3449591867322.3550408132700
211342.9364.569053506196-21.6690535061960
212316.5331.08415028388-14.5841502838796
213284.2291.148261888214-6.94826188821418
214270.9274.744300734941-3.8443007349415
215288.8291.392175220424-2.59217522042428
216278.8281.406079633912-2.60607963391226
217324.4331.548573088619-7.14857308861878
218310.9322.033931876-11.1339318760000
219299280.53620945193618.4637905480643
220273262.56839385802610.4316061419743
221279.3259.18860509352620.1113949064741
222359.2341.61418287414517.5858171258547
223305312.287709889269-7.28770988926874
224282.1292.819794800931-10.7197948009313
225250.3258.189017955932-7.88901795593245
226246.5242.2637795270834.23622047291747
227257.9267.392926941994-9.49292694199391
228266.5252.40100018441214.0989998155881
229315.9318.240445580024-2.34044558002398
230318.4314.5861962459753.81380375402478
231295.4293.3416064871742.05839351282617
232266.4262.3470021429804.05299785702027
233245.8256.644862137151-10.8448621371514
234362.8311.94698767562750.8530123243732
235324.9309.63540494849115.2645950515093
236294.2312.431512532724-18.2315125327239
237289.5274.64229006877314.8577099312266
238295.2284.3082495779310.8917504220698
239290.3317.984531433389-27.6845314333885
240272294.296902373437-22.2969023734373
241307.4327.848256250686-20.4482562506863
242328.7309.65021558837519.0497844116255
243292.9302.360636400293-9.46063640029325
244249.1262.132621337357-13.0326213373573
245230.4238.949005941186-8.54900594118638
246361.5304.35905495315357.1409450468469
247321.7302.27585778785719.4241422121430
248277.2304.030983001473-26.8309830014731
249260.7263.075789422791-2.37578942279106
250251255.841984245517-4.84198424551727
251257.6268.030343313101-10.4303433131005
252241.8258.485597270850-16.6855972708498
253287.5296.035389246669-8.5353892466693
254292.3293.311460964061-1.01146096406137
255274.7263.16967956425911.5303204357407
256254.2240.20475181101913.9952481889812
257230242.322825473095-12.3228254730953
258339314.95794196670724.0420580332934
259318.2278.23294040031339.9670595996868
260287291.531480962212-4.53148096221179
261295.8275.00936559528820.7906344047116
262284290.631809056571-6.63180905657066
263271303.683088525344-32.6830885253437
264262.7275.913953207478-13.2139532074780
265340.6319.58936998491821.0106300150820
266379.4347.18028410871332.219715891287
267373.3353.33766049524419.9623395047556
268355.2344.48298556250610.7170144374941
269338.4346.387055178677-7.9870551786774
270466.9434.45740781400432.4425921859960
271451414.31319374297936.6868062570209
272422425.434985112567-3.4349851125674
273429.2420.4042296439258.79577035607525
274425.9428.077042793156-2.17704279315626
275460.7447.78665426954112.9133457304588
276463.6471.331531394291-7.73153139429104
277541.4534.2869271766347.11307282336645
278544.2560.382569088679-16.1825690886793
279517.5529.020070591136-11.5200705911363
280469.4495.605387268549-26.2053872685491
281439.4464.5972823163-25.1972823162999
282549543.9290551355875.07094486441315
283533499.47872223420133.5212777657994
284506.1500.6368993951115.46310060488884
285484503.948599258902-19.9485992589015
286457482.529699094909-25.529699094909
287481.5479.9683989844421.53160101555784
288469.5485.767856568259-16.2678565682589
289544.7537.8807614233326.81923857666834
290541.2554.821948325962-13.6219483259616
291521.5520.8594981550710.640501844928622
292469.7491.138419523167-21.4384195231671
293434.4459.986377618624-25.5863776186239
294542.6538.8430095991843.75699040081633
295517.3492.7833561390824.5166438609202
296485.7477.1905023343478.5094976656531
297465.8474.67056277421-8.87056277420947
298447457.818104143248-10.8181041432483
299426.6468.479148728359-41.8791487283589
300411.6428.489160341709-16.8891603417085
301467.5477.29445373108-9.79445373108047
302484.5469.99999767681114.5000023231894
303451.2456.910688022182-5.71068802218218
304417.4412.9228295510314.47717044896865
305379.9399.397295919848-19.4972959198481
306484.7483.9538120658450.746187934154989
307455434.37559840497120.6244015950293
308420.8409.07884621885511.7211537811448
309416.5402.96849497444513.5315050255546
310376.3402.60984436441-26.3098443644103
311405.6392.1238413008213.4761586991799
312405.8403.2659893177792.53401068222070
313500.8471.04691955405229.7530804459482
314514504.953038855599.04696114440986
315475.5487.787076964117-12.2870769641169
316430.1442.623129418816-12.5231294188159
317414.4413.0724918327931.32750816720716
318538521.65294278662316.3470572133773
319526492.55057594980633.4494240501936
320488.5482.1042231066236.39577689337688
321520.2476.42274265981743.7772573401832
322504.4503.1043187927681.29568120723246
323568.5530.36456847973838.1354315202620
324610.6571.14052026296239.4594797370384
325818686.81640239347131.183597606530
326830.9823.7244543836067.17554561639349
327835.9820.60737393262215.2926260673780
328782819.518684587387-37.5186845873873
329762.3789.27326289807-26.9732628980706
330856.9892.686051835778-35.7860518357785
331820.9834.923070258689-14.0230702586894
332769.6790.581771362873-20.9817713628735
333752.2775.608807568464-23.4088075684635
334724.4743.277586017302-18.8775860173021
335723.1761.808702989784-38.7087029897843
336719.5735.283276729274-15.7832767292742
337817.4811.4436843282795.95631567172086
338803.3810.358043321348-7.05804332134812
339752.5782.314249740754-29.8142497407543
340689718.324599906597-29.3245999065972
341630.4680.416753181473-50.0167531814726
342765.5745.13937646476320.3606235352371
343757.7724.59346743087733.1065325691234
344732.2708.67000900012523.5299909998747
345702.6723.332569468259-20.7325694682588
346683.3685.84691080968-2.54691080968041
347709.5708.5586701268920.94132987310752
348702.2714.79133006373-12.5913300637302
349784.8792.42474932804-7.62474932803991
350810.9772.64253303647838.257466963522
351755.6778.00606240596-22.4060624059607
352656.8718.604184623424-61.8041846234242
353615.1645.968578939544-30.8685789395437
354745.3734.3655311983110.9344688016899
355694.1704.2262863319-10.1262863319005
356675.7643.77423741842731.9257625815733
357643.7653.907648081456-10.2076480814559
358622.1623.190251191292-1.0902511912916
359634.6642.901356733145-8.30135673314498
360588633.956006137348-45.9560061373481
361689.7676.17532814350713.5246718564929
362673.9674.920698593769-1.02069859376888
363647.9629.39015581586418.5098441841363
364568.8593.584269672429-24.7842696724288
365545.7553.460453189621-7.76045318962144
366632.6665.417236164421-32.8172361644212
367643.8589.76127362834254.0387263716575
368593.1589.4726828544663.62731714553377
369579.7566.6745823067613.0254176932401
370546555.993761806171-9.99376180617082
371562.9565.26668994843-2.36668994843046
372572.5554.71776084740617.7822391525937


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
373662.728972325128615.085067232274710.372877417982
374649.600121689966584.775717000736714.424526379197
375609.557625618123529.496678783818689.618572452427
376552.432638033007458.034949763608646.830326302405
377538.257345161054429.979761907872646.534928414236
378656.10115314916534.169138379994778.033167918327
379625.712929861622490.216089728005761.209769995239
380573.299258922809424.241236727547722.35728111807
381549.88130835719387.208496635606712.554120078773
382525.111327701728348.730576688031701.492078715426
383545.023966161218354.814088633664735.233843688772
384540.477228178168336.296781562651744.657674793684