| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.158806071444759 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 9081 | 9700 | -619 |
| 3 | 9084 | 9601.6990417757 | -517.699041775693 |
| 4 | 9743 | 9519.48529076058 | 223.51470923942 |
| 5 | 8587 | 9554.980783645 | -967.980783645009 |
| 6 | 9731 | 9401.25955816033 | 329.740441839675 |
| 7 | 9563 | 9453.62434232534 | 109.375657674656 |
| 8 | 9998 | 9470.99386083234 | 527.006139167657 |
| 9 | 9437 | 9554.68563542083 | -117.685635420828 |
| 10 | 10038 | 9535.99644199417 | 502.003558005834 |
| 11 | 9918 | 9615.71765489236 | 302.282345107637 |
| 12 | 9252 | 9663.72192658602 | -411.721926586017 |
| 13 | 9737 | 9598.33798489722 | 138.662015102776 |
| 14 | 9035 | 9620.3583547743 | -585.358354774309 |
| 15 | 9133 | 9527.39989406523 | -394.399894065233 |
| 16 | 9487 | 9464.7667963105 | 22.2332036894968 |
| 17 | 8700 | 9468.29756404406 | -768.297564044064 |
| 18 | 9627 | 9346.28724619765 | 280.712753802352 |
| 19 | 8947 | 9390.86613583344 | -443.866135833439 |
| 20 | 9283 | 9320.37749855436 | -37.3774985543641 |
| 21 | 8829 | 9314.44172484851 | -485.441724848513 |
| 22 | 9947 | 9237.35063160995 | 709.649368390048 |
| 23 | 9628 | 9350.04725990723 | 277.952740092771 |
| 24 | 9318 | 9394.18784260867 | -76.1878426086678 |
| 25 | 9605 | 9382.08875063213 | 222.911249367866 |
| 26 | 8640 | 9417.48841042509 | -777.488410425089 |
| 27 | 9214 | 9294.01853037165 | -80.0185303716498 |
| 28 | 9567 | 9281.31110192054 | 285.688898079456 |
| 29 | 8547 | 9326.68023347992 | -779.680233479925 |
| 30 | 9185 | 9202.86227861785 | -17.8622786178457 |
| 31 | 9470 | 9200.02564032349 | 269.974359676507 |
| 32 | 9123 | 9242.89920777453 | -119.899207774533 |
| 33 | 9278 | 9223.85848561852 | 54.1415143814793 |
| 34 | 10170 | 9232.45648681951 | 937.543513180486 |
| 35 | 9434 | 9381.34408895622 | 52.6559110437756 |
| 36 | 9655 | 9389.70616732743 | 265.293832672569 |
| 37 | 9429 | 9431.83643867268 | -2.83643867268438 |
| 38 | 8739 | 9431.38599499018 | -692.385994990182 |
| 39 | 9552 | 9321.43089520242 | 230.569104797580 |
| 40 | 9687 | 9358.04666893186 | 328.953331068142 |
| 41 | 9019 | 9410.28645512746 | -391.286455127456 |
| 42 | 9672 | 9348.14779037912 | 323.852209620882 |
| 43 | 9206 | 9399.57748751772 | -193.577487517716 |
| 44 | 9069 | 9368.83620720488 | -299.83620720488 |
| 45 | 9788 | 9321.22039706178 | 466.779602938224 |
| 46 | 10312 | 9395.34783203494 | 916.65216796506 |
| 47 | 10105 | 9540.9177617108 | 564.082238289207 |
| 48 | 9863 | 9630.49744594527 | 232.502554054732 |
| 49 | 9656 | 9667.42026315557 | -11.4202631555727 |
| 50 | 9295 | 9665.60665602897 | -370.606656028971 |
| 51 | 9946 | 9606.75206893373 | 339.247931066269 |
| 52 | 9701 | 9660.62670011213 | 40.3732998878731 |
| 53 | 9049 | 9667.03822525858 | -618.03822525858 |
| 54 | 10190 | 9568.89000270257 | 621.109997297426 |
| 55 | 9706 | 9667.52604130844 | 38.4739586915566 |
| 56 | 9765 | 9673.63593954118 | 91.3640604588218 |
| 57 | 9893 | 9688.14510705388 | 204.854892946116 |
| 58 | 9994 | 9720.6773078189 | 273.322692181107 |
| 59 | 10433 | 9764.08261080088 | 668.917389199121 |
| 60 | 10073 | 9870.31075350068 | 202.689246499323 |
| 61 | 10112 | 9902.49903646133 | 209.500963538667 |
| 62 | 9266 | 9935.7690614448 | -669.7690614448 |
| 63 | 9820 | 9829.4056680215 | -9.40566802150715 |
| 64 | 10097 | 9827.9119908337 | 269.088009166302 |
| 65 | 9115 | 9870.64480044229 | -755.644800442289 |
| 66 | 10411 | 9750.64381827639 | 660.356181723611 |
| 67 | 9678 | 9855.51238925018 | -177.512389250178 |
| 68 | 10408 | 9827.32234408059 | 580.677655919415 |
| 69 | 10153 | 9919.5374813929 | 233.462518607103 |
| 70 | 10368 | 9956.6127468025 | 411.38725319751 |
| 71 | 10581 | 10021.9435403252 | 559.056459674764 |
| 72 | 10597 | 10110.725100402 | 486.274899598 |
| 73 | 10680 | 10187.9485068494 | 492.051493150648 |
| 74 | 9738 | 10266.0892714251 | -528.089271425135 |
| 75 | 9556 | 10182.2254888580 | -626.225488857985 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 76 | 10082.7770791339 | 9200.11000863375 | 10965.444149634 |
| 77 | 10082.7770791339 | 9189.04915834539 | 10976.5049999224 |
| 78 | 10082.7770791339 | 9178.12353470454 | 10987.4306235632 |
| 79 | 10082.7770791339 | 9167.32829602245 | 10998.2258622453 |
| 80 | 10082.7770791339 | 9156.65888281559 | 11008.8952754522 |
| 81 | 10082.7770791339 | 9146.11099530065 | 11019.4431629671 |
| 82 | 10082.7770791339 | 9135.68057314564 | 11029.8735851221 |
| 83 | 10082.7770791339 | 9125.36377720688 | 11040.1903810609 |
| 84 | 10082.7770791339 | 9115.15697301867 | 11050.3971852491 |
| 85 | 10082.7770791339 | 9105.0567158346 | 11060.4974424331 |
| 86 | 10082.7770791339 | 9095.05973704572 | 11070.4944212220 |
| 87 | 10082.7770791339 | 9085.16293182374 | 11080.391226444 |
