| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.145692113538071 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1152.6 | 1138.42606036325 | 14.1739396367516 |
| 14 | 1211.85 | 1205.69543851981 | 6.15456148018666 |
| 15 | 1239.62 | 1230.78877185315 | 8.83122814685294 |
| 16 | 1244.13 | 1234.85210518648 | 9.27789481351965 |
| 17 | 1198.42 | 1187.73335518648 | 10.6866448135202 |
| 18 | 1227.99 | 1214.70877185315 | 13.2812281468528 |
| 19 | 1304.92 | 1283.14335518648 | 21.7766448135201 |
| 20 | 1340.26 | 1255.77585518648 | 84.4841448135198 |
| 21 | 1307.32 | 1342.94418851981 | -35.6241885198135 |
| 22 | 1356.51 | 1323.79002185315 | 32.719978146853 |
| 23 | 1383.29 | 1397.20710518648 | -13.9171051864801 |
| 24 | 1437.87 | 1379.69418851981 | 58.1758114801864 |
| 25 | 1494.56 | 1468.39710518648 | 26.1628948135199 |
| 26 | 1521.42 | 1547.65543851981 | -26.2354385198132 |
| 27 | 1498.76 | 1540.35877185315 | -41.5987718531471 |
| 28 | 1488.75 | 1493.99210518648 | -5.24210518648056 |
| 29 | 1524.62 | 1432.35335518648 | 92.26664481352 |
| 30 | 1439.27 | 1540.90877185315 | -101.638771853147 |
| 31 | 1423.11 | 1494.42335518648 | -71.3133551864801 |
| 32 | 1466.85 | 1373.96585518648 | 92.88414481352 |
| 33 | 1425.83 | 1469.53418851981 | -43.7041885198134 |
| 34 | 1363.45 | 1442.30002185315 | -78.850021853147 |
| 35 | 1389.18 | 1404.14710518648 | -14.96710518648 |
| 36 | 1395.89 | 1385.58418851981 | 10.3058114801865 |
| 37 | 1368.43 | 1426.41710518648 | -57.9871051864802 |
| 38 | 1349.03 | 1421.52543851981 | -72.4954385198134 |
| 39 | 1299.88 | 1367.96877185315 | -68.0887718531469 |
| 40 | 1365.41 | 1295.11210518648 | 70.2978948135194 |
| 41 | 1451.04 | 1309.01335518648 | 142.02664481352 |
| 42 | 1433.75 | 1467.32877185315 | -33.5787718531471 |
| 43 | 1464.65 | 1488.90335518648 | -24.2533551864799 |
| 44 | 1475.57 | 1415.50585518648 | 60.0641448135198 |
| 45 | 1471.16 | 1478.25418851981 | -7.09418851981331 |
| 46 | 1429.12 | 1487.63002185315 | -58.5100218531472 |
| 47 | 1452.46 | 1469.81710518648 | -17.3571051864799 |
| 48 | 1538.09 | 1448.86418851981 | 89.2258114801864 |
| 49 | 1631.59 | 1568.61710518648 | 62.9728948135198 |
| 50 | 1665.5 | 1684.68543851981 | -19.1854385198133 |
| 51 | 1690.6 | 1684.43877185315 | 6.16122814685286 |
| 52 | 1711.74 | 1685.83210518648 | 25.9078948135195 |
| 53 | 1734.1 | 1655.34335518648 | 78.75664481352 |
| 54 | 1748.09 | 1750.38877185315 | -2.29877185314717 |
| 55 | 1703.45 | 1803.24335518648 | -99.7933551864799 |
| 56 | 1745.74 | 1654.30585518648 | 91.4341448135199 |
| 57 | 1751.01 | 1748.42418851981 | 2.58581148018652 |
| 58 | 1795.65 | 1767.48002185315 | 28.1699781468531 |
| 59 | 1852.13 | 1836.34710518648 | 15.78289481352 |
| 60 | 1877.1 | 1848.53418851981 | 28.5658114801863 |
| 61 | 1989.31 | 1907.62710518648 | 81.6828948135199 |
| 62 | 2097.76 | 2042.40543851981 | 55.3545614801869 |
| 63 | 2154.87 | 2116.69877185315 | 38.1712281468526 |
| 64 | 2152.18 | 2150.10210518648 | 2.07789481351938 |
| 65 | 2250.27 | 2095.78335518648 | 154.486644813520 |
| 66 | 2346.9 | 2266.55877185315 | 80.3412281468532 |
| 67 | 2525.56 | 2402.05335518648 | 123.50664481352 |
| 68 | 2409.36 | 2476.41585518648 | -67.0558551864801 |
| 69 | 2394.36 | 2412.04418851981 | -17.6841885198132 |
| 70 | 2401.33 | 2410.83002185315 | -9.50002185314725 |
| 71 | 2354.32 | 2442.02710518648 | -87.70710518648 |
| 72 | 2450.41 | 2350.72418851981 | 99.6858114801862 |
| 73 | 2504.67 | 2480.93710518648 | 23.7328948135200 |
| 74 | 2661.39 | 2557.76543851981 | 103.624561480186 |
| 75 | 2880.4 | 2680.32877185315 | 200.071228146853 |
| 76 | 3064.42 | 2875.63210518648 | 188.787894813519 |
| 77 | 3141.12 | 3008.02335518648 | 133.09664481352 |
| 78 | 3327.7 | 3157.40877185315 | 170.291228146853 |
| 79 | 3564.95 | 3382.85335518648 | 182.09664481352 |
| 80 | 3403.13 | 3515.80585518648 | -112.67585518648 |
| 81 | 3149.9 | 3405.81418851981 | -255.914188519813 |
| 82 | 3006.84 | 3166.37002185315 | -159.530021853147 |
| 83 | 3230.66 | 3047.53710518648 | 183.122894813519 |
| 84 | 3361.13 | 3227.06418851981 | 134.065811480187 |
| 85 | 3484.74 | 3391.65710518648 | 93.0828948135195 |
| 86 | 3411.13 | 3537.83543851981 | -126.705438519813 |
| 87 | 3288.18 | 3430.06877185315 | -141.888771853147 |
| 88 | 3280.37 | 3283.41210518648 | -3.04210518648051 |
| 89 | 3173.95 | 3223.97335518648 | -50.0233551864799 |
| 90 | 3165.26 | 3190.23877185315 | -24.9787718531466 |
| 91 | 3092.71 | 3220.41335518648 | -127.703355186480 |
| 92 | 3053.05 | 3043.56585518648 | 9.48414481351983 |
| 93 | 3181.96 | 3055.73418851981 | 126.225811480187 |
| 94 | 2999.93 | 3198.43002185315 | -198.500021853147 |
| 95 | 3249.57 | 3040.62710518648 | 208.94289481352 |
| 96 | 3210.52 | 3245.97418851981 | -35.4541885198137 |
| 97 | 3030.29 | 3241.04710518648 | -210.757105186480 |
| 98 | 2803.47 | 3083.38543851981 | -279.915438519814 |
| 99 | 2767.63 | 2822.40877185315 | -54.7787718531467 |
| 100 | 2882.6 | 2762.86210518648 | 119.737894813519 |
| 101 | 2863.36 | 2826.20335518648 | 37.1566448135204 |
| 102 | 2897.06 | 2879.64877185315 | 17.4112281468529 |
| 103 | 3012.61 | 2952.21335518648 | 60.3966448135202 |
| 104 | 3142.95 | 2963.46585518648 | 179.484144813519 |
| 105 | 3032.93 | 3145.63418851981 | -112.704188519813 |
| 106 | 3045.78 | 3049.40002185315 | -3.62002185314668 |
| 107 | 3110.52 | 3086.47710518648 | 24.0428948135195 |
| 108 | 3013.24 | 3106.92418851981 | -93.6841885198137 |
| 109 | 2987.1 | 3043.76710518648 | -56.6671051864801 |
| 110 | 2995.55 | 3040.19543851981 | -44.6454385198131 |
| 111 | 2833.18 | 3014.48877185315 | -181.308771853147 |
| 112 | 2848.96 | 2828.41210518648 | 20.5478948135196 |
| 113 | 2794.83 | 2792.56335518648 | 2.26664481352009 |
| 114 | 2845.26 | 2811.11877185315 | 34.1412281468533 |
| 115 | 2915.02 | 2900.41335518648 | 14.6066448135198 |
| 116 | 2892.63 | 2865.87585518648 | 26.7541448135198 |
| 117 | 2604.42 | 2895.31418851981 | -290.894188519813 |
| 118 | 2641.65 | 2620.89002185315 | 20.7599781468530 |
| 119 | 2659.81 | 2682.34710518648 | -22.5371051864804 |
| 120 | 2638.53 | 2656.21418851981 | -17.6841885198132 |
| 121 | 2720.25 | 2669.05710518648 | 51.1928948135196 |
| 122 | 2745.88 | 2773.34543851981 | -27.4654385198132 |
| 123 | 2735.7 | 2764.81877185315 | -29.1187718531473 |
| 124 | 2811.7 | 2730.93210518648 | 80.7678948135194 |
| 125 | 2799.43 | 2755.30335518648 | 44.1266448135202 |
| 126 | 2555.28 | 2815.71877185315 | -260.438771853147 |
| 127 | 2304.98 | 2610.43335518648 | -305.45335518648 |
| 128 | 2214.95 | 2255.83585518648 | -40.8858551864805 |
| 129 | 2065.81 | 2217.63418851981 | -151.824188519813 |
| 130 | 1940.49 | 2082.28002185315 | -141.790021853147 |
| 131 | 2042 | 1981.18710518648 | 60.8128948135197 |
| 132 | 1995.37 | 2038.40418851981 | -43.0341885198136 |
| 133 | 1946.81 | 2025.89710518648 | -79.0871051864801 |
| 134 | 1765.9 | 1999.90543851981 | -234.005438519813 |
| 135 | 1635.25 | 1784.83877185315 | -149.588771853147 |
| 136 | 1833.42 | 1630.48210518648 | 202.937894813520 |
| 137 | 1910.43 | 1777.02335518648 | 133.406644813520 |
| 138 | 1959.67 | 1926.71877185315 | 32.9512281468531 |
| 139 | 1969.6 | 2014.82335518648 | -45.2233551864801 |
| 140 | 2061.41 | 1920.45585518648 | 140.954144813520 |
| 141 | 2093.48 | 2064.09418851981 | 29.3858114801869 |
| 142 | 2120.88 | 2109.95002185315 | 10.9299781468530 |
| 143 | 2174.56 | 2161.57710518648 | 12.9828948135196 |
| 144 | 2196.72 | 2170.96418851981 | 25.7558114801864 |
| 145 | 2350.44 | 2227.24710518648 | 123.19289481352 |
| 146 | 2440.25 | 2403.53543851981 | 36.7145614801866 |
| 147 | 2408.64 | 2459.18877185315 | -50.5487718531472 |
| 148 | 2472.81 | 2403.87210518648 | 68.9378948135195 |
| 149 | 2407.6 | 2416.41335518648 | -8.81335518647984 |
| 150 | 2454.62 | 2423.88877185315 | 30.731228146853 |
| 151 | 2448.05 | 2509.77335518648 | -61.7233551864797 |
| 152 | 2497.84 | 2398.90585518648 | 98.9341448135197 |
| 153 | 2645.64 | 2500.52418851981 | 145.115811480186 |
| 154 | 2756.76 | 2662.11002185315 | 94.6499781468533 |
| 155 | 2849.27 | 2797.45710518648 | 51.8128948135195 |
| 156 | 2921.44 | 2845.67418851981 | 75.7658114801866 |
| 157 | 2981.85 | 2951.96710518648 | 29.8828948135197 |
| 158 | 3080.58 | 3034.94543851981 | 45.6345614801867 |
| 159 | 3106.22 | 3099.51877185315 | 6.70122814685283 |
| 160 | 3119.31 | 3101.45210518648 | 17.8578948135196 |
| 161 | 3061.26 | 3062.91335518648 | -1.65335518647953 |
| 162 | 3097.31 | 3077.54877185315 | 19.7612281468528 |
| 163 | 3161.69 | 3152.46335518648 | 9.22664481352012 |
| 164 | 3257.16 | 3112.54585518648 | 144.614144813519 |
| 165 | 3277.01 | 3259.84418851981 | 17.1658114801871 |
| 166 | 3295.32 | 3293.48002185315 | 1.8399781468529 |
| 167 | 3363.99 | 3336.01710518648 | 27.9728948135194 |
| 168 | 3494.17 | 3360.39418851981 | 133.775811480187 |
| 169 | 3667.03 | 3524.69710518648 | 142.33289481352 |
| 170 | 3813.06 | 3720.12543851981 | 92.9345614801864 |
| 171 | 3917.96 | 3831.99877185315 | 85.961228146853 |
| 172 | 3895.51 | 3913.19210518648 | -17.6821051864804 |
| 173 | 3801.06 | 3839.11335518648 | -38.0533551864801 |
| 174 | 3570.12 | 3817.34877185315 | -247.228771853147 |
| 175 | 3701.61 | 3625.27335518648 | 76.3366448135203 |
| 176 | 3862.27 | 3652.46585518648 | 209.804144813520 |
| 177 | 3970.1 | 3864.95418851981 | 105.145811480187 |
| 178 | 4138.52 | 3986.57002185315 | 151.949978146853 |
| 179 | 4199.75 | 4179.21710518648 | 20.5328948135202 |
| 180 | 4290.89 | 4196.15418851981 | 94.7358114801864 |
| 181 | 4443.91 | 4321.41710518648 | 122.492894813519 |
| 182 | 4502.64 | 4497.00543851981 | 5.63456148018759 |
| 183 | 4356.98 | 4521.57877185315 | -164.598771853148 |
| 184 | 4591.27 | 4352.21210518648 | 239.05789481352 |
| 185 | 4696.96 | 4534.87335518648 | 162.086644813520 |
| 186 | 4621.4 | 4713.24877185315 | -91.8487718531478 |
| 187 | 4562.84 | 4676.55335518648 | -113.713355186479 |
| 188 | 4202.52 | 4513.69585518648 | -311.175855186480 |
| 189 | 4296.49 | 4205.20418851981 | 91.2858114801857 |
| 190 | 4435.23 | 4312.96002185315 | 122.269978146853 |
| 191 | 4105.18 | 4475.92710518648 | -370.747105186479 |
| 192 | 4116.68 | 4101.58418851981 | 15.0958114801861 |
| 193 | 3844.49 | 4147.20710518648 | -302.717105186481 |
| 194 | 3720.98 | 3897.58543851981 | -176.605438519813 |
| 195 | 3674.4 | 3739.91877185315 | -65.518771853147 |
| 196 | 3857.62 | 3669.63210518648 | 187.987894813519 |
| 197 | 3801.06 | 3801.22335518648 | -0.163355186479748 |
| 198 | 3504.37 | 3817.34877185315 | -312.978771853147 |
| 199 | 3032.6 | 3559.52335518648 | -526.92335518648 |
| 200 | 3047.03 | 2983.45585518648 | 63.57414481352 |
| 201 | 2962.34 | 3049.71418851981 | -87.3741885198133 |
| 202 | 2197.82 | 2978.81002185315 | -780.990021853147 |
| 203 | 2014.45 | 2238.51710518648 | -224.067105186480 |
| 204 | 1862.83 | 2010.85418851981 | -148.024188519814 |
| 205 | 1905.41 | 1893.35710518648 | 12.0528948135200 |
| 206 | 1810.99 | 1958.50543851981 | -147.515438519813 |
| 207 | 1670.07 | 1829.92877185315 | -159.858771853147 |
| 208 | 1864.44 | 1665.30210518648 | 199.137894813520 |
| 209 | 2052.02 | 1808.04335518648 | 243.97664481352 |
| 210 | 2029.6 | 2068.30877185315 | -38.708771853147 |
| 211 | 2070.83 | 2084.75335518648 | -13.9233551864800 |
| 212 | 2293.41 | 2021.68585518648 | 271.724144813520 |
| 213 | 2443.27 | 2296.09418851981 | 147.175811480187 |
| 214 | 2513.17 | 2459.74002185315 | 53.429978146853 |
| 215 | 2466.92 | 2553.86710518648 | -86.9471051864803 |
| 216 | 2502.66 | 2463.32418851981 | 39.3358114801863 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 217 | 2533.18710518648 | 2271.01738804729 | 2795.35682232567 |
| 218 | 2586.28254370629 | 2215.51857408453 | 2957.04651332805 |
| 219 | 2605.22131555944 | 2151.1300452684 | 3059.31258585048 |
| 220 | 2600.45342074592 | 2076.11398646754 | 3124.7928550243 |
| 221 | 2544.0567759324 | 1957.82746676728 | 3130.28608509752 |
| 222 | 2560.34554778555 | 1918.16351478473 | 3202.52758078636 |
| 223 | 2615.49890297203 | 1921.86303012958 | 3309.13477581447 |
| 224 | 2566.35475815851 | 1824.82681891499 | 3307.88269740203 |
| 225 | 2569.03894667832 | 1782.52979526075 | 3355.54809809589 |
| 226 | 2585.50896853147 | 1756.45552884954 | 3414.56240821339 |
| 227 | 2626.20607371795 | 1756.68749057365 | 3495.72465686225 |
| 228 | 2622.61026223776 | 1714.42772165568 | 3530.79280281984 |
