| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 665267.6524 | 496636.165 | 833899.1399 | 0.4178 | 0.0155 | 0.6669 | 0.0155 |
| 62 | 847224 | 928604.2 | 756764.6192 | 1100443.7809 | 0.1766 | 0.9974 | 0.3873 | 0.8124 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1088131.7309 | 915899.8192 | 1260363.6427 | 0.4328 | 0.9969 | 0.2055 | 0.9965 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1551051.9183 | 1378846.7556 | 1723257.0809 | 0.338 | 1 | 0.9566 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1609910.8561 | 1437427.2559 | 1782394.4563 | 0.1138 | 0.8613 | 0.2788 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1484982.265 | 1312205.9802 | 1657758.5497 | 0.3983 | 0.4158 | 0.4532 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2997011.8664 | 2824254.0907 | 3169769.6421 | 0.0681 | 1 | 0.8126 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2674686.6271 | 2501766.2743 | 2847606.9798 | 0.0993 | 0.0152 | 0.1262 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1353721.4961 | 1180467.0938 | 1526975.8983 | 0.3342 | 0 | 0.2732 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1392186.1962 | 1218889.5681 | 1565482.8243 | 0.3852 | 0.5027 | 0.5982 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 952979.4513 | 779623.7391 | 1126335.1634 | 0.4699 | 0 | 0.4481 | 0.8759 |
| 72 | 859626 | 834884.332 | 661272.1447 | 1008496.5193 | 0.39 | 0.1042 | 0.4285 | 0.4285 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1293 | 0.0268 | 0 | 318634908.454 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0944 | -0.0876 | 0.0572 | 6622736958.1811 | 3470685933.3175 | 58912.5278 |
| 63 | 0.0808 | -0.0137 | 0.0427 | 221287371.0513 | 2387553079.2288 | 48862.5939 |
| 64 | 0.0566 | -0.0237 | 0.038 | 1348793071.4191 | 2127863077.2764 | 46128.7663 |
| 65 | 0.0547 | -0.066 | 0.0436 | 11273524779.5404 | 3956995417.7292 | 62904.6534 |
| 66 | 0.0594 | 0.0153 | 0.0388 | 516640853.7036 | 3383602990.3916 | 58168.7458 |
| 67 | 0.0294 | -0.0438 | 0.0396 | 17243331513.0512 | 5363564207.9144 | 73236.3585 |
| 68 | 0.033 | 0.0424 | 0.0399 | 12868945093.6691 | 6301736818.6337 | 79383.4795 |
| 69 | 0.0653 | 0.028 | 0.0386 | 1434478048.8215 | 5760930288.6546 | 75900.7924 |
| 70 | 0.0635 | -0.0185 | 0.0366 | 666062992.7129 | 5251443559.0604 | 72466.8446 |
| 71 | 0.0928 | -0.007 | 0.0339 | 44681888.8617 | 4778101589.0423 | 69123.8135 |
| 72 | 0.1061 | 0.0296 | 0.0335 | 612150134.983 | 4430938967.8707 | 66565.2985 |
