Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.867063638016424 |
beta | 0.00881242346206717 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 105.2 | 104.393314636752 | 0.806685363247837 |
14 | 105.77 | 105.702048096755 | 0.0679519032454579 |
15 | 105.78 | 105.804938517938 | -0.0249385179378265 |
16 | 106.26 | 106.248346479075 | 0.0116535209253641 |
17 | 106.13 | 106.050654443644 | 0.0793455563557188 |
18 | 106.12 | 105.994761984715 | 0.125238015284737 |
19 | 106.57 | 106.964201476668 | -0.394201476668044 |
20 | 106.44 | 106.751491806342 | -0.311491806342318 |
21 | 106.54 | 106.171033262641 | 0.368966737359244 |
22 | 107.1 | 106.272561495758 | 0.827438504242068 |
23 | 108.1 | 107.270852994964 | 0.829147005035992 |
24 | 108.4 | 108.178211328923 | 0.221788671076638 |
25 | 108.84 | 108.573717159191 | 0.266282840808515 |
26 | 109.62 | 109.331477892433 | 0.288522107567431 |
27 | 110.42 | 109.630748753665 | 0.789251246334771 |
28 | 110.67 | 110.808677185860 | -0.138677185859734 |
29 | 111.66 | 110.512190646612 | 1.14780935338825 |
30 | 112.28 | 111.419542183107 | 0.86045781689252 |
31 | 112.87 | 112.993746511072 | -0.123746511071573 |
32 | 112.18 | 113.064935034215 | -0.88493503421465 |
33 | 112.36 | 112.111742166164 | 0.248257833835794 |
34 | 112.16 | 112.202653102221 | -0.0426531022214078 |
35 | 111.49 | 112.473196054056 | -0.983196054055725 |
36 | 111.25 | 111.740998749006 | -0.49099874900557 |
37 | 111.36 | 111.531542193046 | -0.171542193046477 |
38 | 111.74 | 111.916446549854 | -0.176446549854404 |
39 | 111.1 | 111.879381694617 | -0.779381694617129 |
40 | 111.33 | 111.562120883960 | -0.232120883960093 |
41 | 111.25 | 111.343190326818 | -0.09319032681762 |
42 | 111.04 | 111.114391078504 | -0.0743910785039503 |
43 | 110.97 | 111.718116643191 | -0.748116643190926 |
44 | 111.31 | 111.112907389139 | 0.197092610860565 |
45 | 111.02 | 111.222972078447 | -0.202972078447033 |
46 | 111.07 | 110.854945700306 | 0.215054299693875 |
47 | 111.36 | 111.196854512631 | 0.163145487368737 |
48 | 111.54 | 111.505747813064 | 0.0342521869362287 |
49 | 112.05 | 111.779906662566 | 0.270093337434261 |
50 | 112.52 | 112.536181694502 | -0.0161816945021940 |
51 | 112.94 | 112.548245768734 | 0.39175423126629 |
52 | 113.33 | 113.318454871318 | 0.0115451286823998 |
53 | 113.78 | 113.330398687321 | 0.449601312679121 |
54 | 113.77 | 113.580012381220 | 0.189987618780194 |
55 | 113.82 | 114.330707519984 | -0.510707519984095 |
56 | 113.89 | 114.066112835040 | -0.176112835040314 |
57 | 114.25 | 113.805662942423 | 0.444337057576519 |
58 | 114.41 | 114.065673163745 | 0.344326836254879 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
59 | 114.524964165043 | 113.613629459136 | 115.436298870950 |
60 | 114.686213997454 | 113.475438672413 | 115.896989322494 |
61 | 114.972712825290 | 113.519243485227 | 116.426182165353 |
62 | 115.465366558980 | 113.800909701716 | 117.129823416244 |
63 | 115.554437528022 | 113.699820481710 | 117.409054574333 |
64 | 115.940180617336 | 113.910344816586 | 117.970016418086 |
65 | 116.006012902556 | 113.812294466321 | 118.199731338790 |
66 | 115.833511408653 | 113.484851585253 | 118.182171232053 |
67 | 116.327105508442 | 113.830760675910 | 118.823450340974 |
68 | 116.554487004848 | 113.916476158164 | 119.192497851532 |
69 | 116.535244626342 | 113.760647167581 | 119.309842085102 |
70 | 116.399322324955 | 113.492484869076 | 119.306159780834 |