| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 853675.3369 | -359611.5957 | 2066962.2695 | 0.3915 | 0.5018 | 0.6422 | 0.5018 |
| 62 | 847224 | 853675.3369 | -842590.0206 | 2549940.6944 | 0.497 | 0.5781 | 0.454 | 0.5013 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 853675.3369 | -1215761.0949 | 2923111.7687 | 0.4176 | 0.5024 | 0.3857 | 0.5011 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 853675.3369 | -1531239.3634 | 3238590.0372 | 0.2936 | 0.4284 | 0.3265 | 0.5009 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 853675.3369 | -1809606.3061 | 3516956.9799 | 0.3162 | 0.3134 | 0.2761 | 0.5008 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 853675.3369 | -2061512.4944 | 3768863.1683 | 0.3301 | 0.331 | 0.3331 | 0.5008 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 853675.3369 | -2293318.6374 | 4000669.3112 | 0.1051 | 0.3419 | 0.0992 | 0.5007 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 853675.3369 | -2509183.8716 | 4216534.5455 | 0.1298 | 0.1205 | 0.1313 | 0.5007 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 853675.3369 | -2712004.5476 | 4419355.2214 | 0.3837 | 0.1438 | 0.3805 | 0.5006 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 853675.3369 | -2903893.5608 | 4611244.2346 | 0.3946 | 0.3895 | 0.3938 | 0.5006 |
| 71 | 946295 | 853675.3369 | -3086448.3925 | 4793799.0664 | 0.4816 | 0.3993 | 0.478 | 0.5006 |
| 72 | 859626 | 853675.3369 | -3260911.6394 | 4968262.3132 | 0.4989 | 0.4824 | 0.5005 | 0.5005 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.7251 | -0.1998 | 0 | 29089805177.676 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 1.0138 | -0.0076 | 0.1037 | 41619748.0718 | 14565712462.8739 | 120688.4935 |
| 63 | 1.2368 | 0.2572 | 0.1549 | 48215667598.0943 | 25782364174.614 | 160568.8767 |
| 64 | 1.4254 | 0.7739 | 0.3096 | 436459298626.364 | 128451597787.552 | 358401.4478 |
| 65 | 1.5917 | 0.7615 | 0.4 | 422576265443.704 | 187276531318.782 | 432754.5856 |
| 66 | 1.7423 | 0.7661 | 0.461 | 427763956651.159 | 227357768874.178 | 476820.4787 |
| 67 | 1.8808 | 2.3569 | 0.7319 | 4048235196742.42 | 773197401426.784 | 879316.4399 |
| 68 | 2.0098 | 2.266 | 0.9236 | 3742107105692.39 | 1144311114459.98 | 1069724.7844 |
| 69 | 2.131 | 0.6301 | 0.891 | 289358639767.059 | 1049316395049.66 | 1024361.4572 |
| 70 | 2.2457 | 0.6006 | 0.862 | 262864020728.021 | 970671157617.496 | 985226.4499 |
| 71 | 2.3548 | 0.1085 | 0.7935 | 8578401988.8173 | 883208179833.07 | 939791.5619 |
| 72 | 2.4591 | 0.007 | 0.7279 | 35410391.0765 | 809610449046.237 | 899783.5568 |
