| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 645717.8681 | 587644.6933 | 709530.0441 | 0.1253 | 0 | 0.7053 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 900326.8575 | 819226.6289 | 989455.6912 | 0.1215 | 1 | 0.1202 | 0.8617 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1116380.4202 | 1015151.6057 | 1227703.5622 | 0.2238 | 1 | 0.2192 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1564326.7518 | 1421513.6896 | 1721487.5975 | 0.2665 | 1 | 0.9794 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1624845.0718 | 1475243.7083 | 1789617.1952 | 0.0748 | 0.9057 | 0.3314 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1540769.919 | 1398676.1702 | 1697299.1989 | 0.3395 | 0.6786 | 0.7152 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 3006799.536 | 2729015.1031 | 3312859.4413 | 0.1831 | 1 | 0.7135 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2644361.4076 | 2398708.7639 | 2915171.4285 | 0.149 | 0.0546 | 0.171 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1357215.6818 | 1230945.2961 | 1496438.8854 | 0.3142 | 0 | 0.2416 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1353737.4285 | 1227729.8382 | 1492677.7604 | 0.4292 | 0.2966 | 0.4082 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 974966.585 | 883985.3585 | 1075311.7489 | 0.2877 | 0 | 0.5808 | 0.9923 |
| 72 | 859626 | 852718.7893 | 773006.7052 | 940650.7456 | 0.4388 | 0.0185 | 0.5166 | 0.5166 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0504 | 0.0579 | 0 | 1398769869.5767 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0505 | -0.059 | 0.0585 | 2819913472.917 | 2109341671.2468 | 45927.5698 |
| 63 | 0.0509 | -0.0386 | 0.0518 | 1859715614.404 | 2026132985.6325 | 45012.587 |
| 64 | 0.0513 | -0.032 | 0.0469 | 2500075175.8199 | 2144618533.1794 | 46310.0263 |
| 65 | 0.0517 | -0.0745 | 0.0524 | 14667891720.8267 | 4649273170.7088 | 68185.5789 |
| 66 | 0.0518 | -0.0215 | 0.0472 | 1092826006.8519 | 4056531976.7327 | 63690.9097 |
| 67 | 0.0519 | -0.0469 | 0.0472 | 19909643469.1513 | 6321262189.9353 | 79506.3657 |
| 68 | 0.0523 | 0.0544 | 0.0481 | 20668833101.0825 | 8114708553.8287 | 90081.6771 |
| 69 | 0.0523 | 0.0253 | 0.0456 | 1182006282.926 | 7344408301.5062 | 85699.5233 |
| 70 | 0.0524 | 0.0093 | 0.0419 | 159784048.453 | 6625945876.2009 | 81399.9132 |
| 71 | 0.0525 | -0.0294 | 0.0408 | 822059783.7425 | 6098319867.7956 | 78091.7401 |
| 72 | 0.0526 | 0.0081 | 0.0381 | 47709559.9123 | 5594102342.1386 | 74793.732 |
