| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 668466.4086 | 561006.2658 | 785336.9444 | 0.403 | 0.0011 | 0.7505 | 0.0011 |
| 62 | 847224 | 903356.2982 | 777510.3781 | 1038637.5006 | 0.208 | 0.9993 | 0.2328 | 0.7766 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1137860.6267 | 993863.6891 | 1291595.6084 | 0.2051 | 0.9999 | 0.387 | 0.9999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1548492.8613 | 1379845.3274 | 1726861.1352 | 0.3537 | 1 | 0.9479 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1605301.5693 | 1433294.824 | 1787052.9652 | 0.1367 | 0.8367 | 0.2722 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1536850.5628 | 1368701.3079 | 1714739.0639 | 0.3741 | 0.6424 | 0.6763 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2993027.1713 | 2756398.972 | 3239398.3667 | 0.1555 | 1 | 0.7226 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2671973.6255 | 2448685.6419 | 2905002.7857 | 0.1643 | 0.0516 | 0.1915 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1394218.1341 | 1234254.7921 | 1563925.5396 | 0.4879 | 0 | 0.4412 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1367477.4583 | 1209130.8104 | 1535564.578 | 0.4949 | 0.3893 | 0.4873 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 965860.0046 | 833477.9003 | 1107995.0304 | 0.3937 | 0 | 0.5073 | 0.9436 |
| 72 | 859626 | 869451.3664 | 744181.6774 | 1004460.6986 | 0.4433 | 0.1323 | 0.6064 | 0.6064 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0892 | 0.0219 | 0 | 214669131.7773 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0764 | -0.0621 | 0.042 | 3150834900.4264 | 1682752016.1019 | 41021.3605 |
| 63 | 0.0689 | -0.0568 | 0.0469 | 4173757793.3201 | 2513087275.1746 | 50130.7019 |
| 64 | 0.0588 | -0.0221 | 0.0407 | 1167374414.2985 | 2176659059.9556 | 46654.6789 |
| 65 | 0.0578 | -0.0633 | 0.0452 | 10315971136.7459 | 3804521475.3137 | 61680.8031 |
| 66 | 0.0591 | -0.019 | 0.0409 | 849055842.6798 | 3311943869.8747 | 57549.4906 |
| 67 | 0.042 | -0.0425 | 0.0411 | 16212717872.4505 | 5154911584.5284 | 71797.7129 |
| 68 | 0.0445 | 0.0435 | 0.0414 | 13491838717.6644 | 6197027476.1704 | 78721.2009 |
| 69 | 0.0621 | -0.0019 | 0.037 | 6875587.0567 | 5509232821.8244 | 74224.2064 |
| 70 | 0.0627 | -8e-04 | 0.0334 | 1208808.6244 | 4958430420.5044 | 70416.1233 |
| 71 | 0.0751 | -0.0203 | 0.0322 | 382789404.073 | 4542463055.3743 | 67397.7971 |
| 72 | 0.0792 | -0.0113 | 0.0304 | 96537824.7494 | 4171969286.1555 | 64590.7833 |
