Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 103.48 | 103.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 103.93 | 103.873915011963 | 0.0671547068140572 | 0.0205163683230409 | 1.05673372968296 |
3 | 103.89 | 103.878658598222 | 0.0441107069774392 | 0.0204037216127486 | -0.212745217106742 |
4 | 104.4 | 104.328896605387 | 0.212766643189411 | 0.018532748645815 | 1.29441439184492 |
5 | 104.79 | 104.746436345168 | 0.29987706478355 | 0.0178085281500633 | 0.642593675078283 |
6 | 104.77 | 104.784423137891 | 0.187752274708622 | 0.0183498153606676 | -0.820063166157854 |
7 | 105.13 | 105.096267913576 | 0.240993750266082 | 0.0182115452968072 | 0.388621717198104 |
8 | 105.26 | 105.25235964382 | 0.204536778405807 | 0.0182610280463516 | -0.265976068843939 |
9 | 104.96 | 104.998903709244 | 0.00780426151474636 | 0.0183989511065719 | -1.43510339524529 |
10 | 104.75 | 104.762163590399 | -0.0972581377454122 | 0.0184368095504773 | -0.766372861116432 |
11 | 105.01 | 104.955252003452 | 0.0274920658456558 | 0.0184137520686329 | 0.909976860503057 |
12 | 105.15 | 105.115035893002 | 0.0843348039974786 | 0.0184083678840531 | 0.41463227353378 |
13 | 105.2 | 105.331371991286 | 0.138908704581269 | -0.147259664919998 | 0.47449730748307 |
14 | 105.77 | 105.728992794546 | 0.240710806849184 | 0.0194658889661998 | 0.655989540727187 |
15 | 105.78 | 105.783925576531 | 0.161016128426702 | 0.0193336915853151 | -0.582603370340138 |
16 | 106.26 | 106.20841822986 | 0.274454159091059 | 0.0187733441824657 | 0.822739281923393 |
17 | 106.13 | 106.151963334933 | 0.132256300814288 | 0.0193121816321711 | -1.03451463989318 |
18 | 106.12 | 106.120936154171 | 0.0621249776487469 | 0.0194675510226062 | -0.511135457885316 |
19 | 106.57 | 106.509832342419 | 0.202484848872294 | 0.0192999243132723 | 1.02359417310278 |
20 | 106.44 | 106.453065783842 | 0.0911115333383387 | 0.0193694853632611 | -0.812346035400039 |
21 | 106.54 | 106.523246697419 | 0.082118914854446 | 0.0193723871055168 | -0.0655943654371804 |
22 | 107.1 | 107.027794431137 | 0.263621836696443 | 0.0193422814761452 | 1.32394345266921 |
23 | 108.1 | 107.992896023293 | 0.565033073940443 | 0.0193166370618926 | 2.19860238118453 |
24 | 108.4 | 108.40039546851 | 0.497342984325434 | 0.019319588531805 | -0.493756381673127 |
25 | 108.84 | 109.014559614347 | 0.546622951315751 | -0.188909629601856 | 0.393645454873374 |
26 | 109.62 | 109.59859646102 | 0.561808997747749 | 0.0177516252565416 | 0.103005724369347 |
27 | 110.42 | 110.375253270046 | 0.654027280557182 | 0.01785156466381 | 0.673642701863089 |
28 | 110.67 | 110.693558228224 | 0.509582608789291 | 0.0183192319478328 | -1.04969404269016 |
29 | 111.66 | 111.593366686826 | 0.677266744244495 | 0.0179028983905363 | 1.22104152281305 |
30 | 112.28 | 112.263041544135 | 0.674005486869827 | 0.0179076310698452 | -0.0237757695965795 |
31 | 112.87 | 112.861515573975 | 0.641557894899944 | 0.0179330122335132 | -0.236647995490579 |
32 | 112.18 | 112.311013757318 | 0.129413430779224 | 0.0181425174185119 | -3.73561412849186 |
33 | 112.36 | 112.352813366424 | 0.0917694144341112 | 0.0181504731993205 | -0.274586305285415 |
34 | 112.16 | 112.175509953511 | -0.0238445254952432 | 0.0181630331419322 | -0.843328331237461 |
35 | 111.49 | 111.547439850187 | -0.283470880400788 | 0.0181775007011105 | -1.89380913622189 |
36 | 111.25 | 111.235397803403 | -0.295747606376388 | 0.0181778512986996 | -0.0895509590826834 |
37 | 111.36 | 111.433201285786 | -0.086226373888755 | -0.134216965109667 | 1.62498585041849 |
38 | 111.74 | 111.688171024441 | 0.0543345130478958 | 0.0161280391596024 | 0.97392945897528 |
39 | 111.1 | 111.15732384563 | -0.196911244102784 | 0.0159258200750152 | -1.834638742933 |
40 | 111.33 | 111.275111774956 | -0.0615566595291128 | 0.0155998830405733 | 0.98458133416731 |
41 | 111.25 | 111.232097947643 | -0.0535886858845455 | 0.0155851718666258 | 0.0580468408749427 |
42 | 111.04 | 111.041486937155 | -0.112453883813694 | 0.0156486864920975 | -0.429209414913862 |
43 | 110.97 | 110.951540990476 | -0.10278408806187 | 0.0156430628196737 | 0.0705269254169159 |
44 | 111.31 | 111.244845548901 | 0.0673940003617323 | 0.0155913052403021 | 1.24130311966288 |
45 | 111.02 | 111.03863009701 | -0.0501671422770438 | 0.015609777377275 | -0.8575273141104 |
46 | 111.07 | 111.047059169843 | -0.0249895075574401 | 0.0156077438104045 | 0.183654572447691 |
47 | 111.36 | 111.308545394502 | 0.098105410768704 | 0.0156026440169899 | 0.89789931886991 |
48 | 111.54 | 111.511301351241 | 0.143072776227557 | 0.0156016892668165 | 0.328008536002872 |
49 | 112.05 | 112.118054533731 | 0.340523530686371 | -0.125557139606325 | 1.50853262492872 |
50 | 112.52 | 112.503308664986 | 0.359112167686081 | 0.0118244391990438 | 0.130307665725181 |
51 | 112.94 | 112.920846428869 | 0.384201157154409 | 0.011840474552576 | 0.183163962727882 |
52 | 113.33 | 113.316712157356 | 0.389217196753956 | 0.0118308596560312 | 0.0365078715921515 |
53 | 113.78 | 113.761285223575 | 0.413003834460183 | 0.0117959045300156 | 0.173331500971737 |
54 | 113.77 | 113.804339507651 | 0.25406549185186 | 0.0119323906637665 | -1.15897875629395 |
55 | 113.82 | 113.835866789549 | 0.158455743889951 | 0.0119766431916989 | -0.697348796286899 |
56 | 113.89 | 113.890948369518 | 0.114040384266335 | 0.0119873938080219 | -0.323973999545938 |
57 | 114.25 | 114.212104578002 | 0.203032499468324 | 0.0119762653798814 | 0.649137096645285 |
58 | 114.41 | 114.399926831239 | 0.196496912928743 | 0.0119766854838765 | -0.0476729010209747 |