| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 663326.7532 | 585481.5028 | 751522.2588 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.7828 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 915872.2412 | 808117.0473 | 1037995.6283 | 0.1353 | 0.9999 | 0.2718 | 0.8517 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1135416.7008 | 1000237.7404 | 1288864.6693 | 0.2136 | 0.9999 | 0.3749 | 0.9999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1470672.8767 | 1295536.6034 | 1669484.8331 | 0.3335 | 1 | 0.7551 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1585726.8697 | 1396828.6831 | 1800170.4401 | 0.2268 | 0.743 | 0.2443 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1492121.8383 | 1314371.775 | 1693910.0661 | 0.4398 | 0.4551 | 0.4875 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2903482.9173 | 2557600.2519 | 3296141.7815 | 0.4252 | 1 | 0.4696 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2733151.1446 | 2407559.3499 | 3102775.0903 | 0.3853 | 0.2411 | 0.4108 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1405925.0316 | 1238441.5081 | 1596058.5797 | 0.4413 | 0 | 0.4955 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359139.2308 | 1197229.1515 | 1542945.5976 | 0.4692 | 0.3646 | 0.4531 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 952661.0444 | 839173.4611 | 1081496.386 | 0.4614 | 0 | 0.4284 | 0.9393 |
| 72 | 859626 | 860080.3487 | 757621.6191 | 976395.3239 | 0.4969 | 0.0731 | 0.5618 | 0.5618 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0678 | 0.0298 | 0 | 391693449.829 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.068 | -0.075 | 0.0524 | 4712581021.8051 | 2552137235.8171 | 50518.682 |
| 63 | 0.069 | -0.0547 | 0.0532 | 3863952726.1488 | 2989409065.9277 | 54675.4887 |
| 64 | 0.069 | 0.0297 | 0.0473 | 1905595176.2218 | 2718455593.5012 | 52138.8108 |
| 65 | 0.069 | -0.0517 | 0.0482 | 6722830678.2974 | 3519330610.4604 | 59323.9463 |
| 66 | 0.069 | 0.0104 | 0.0419 | 243053141.5142 | 2973284365.6361 | 54527.8311 |
| 67 | 0.069 | -0.013 | 0.0378 | 1427699972.4024 | 2752486595.1741 | 52464.1458 |
| 68 | 0.069 | 0.0201 | 0.0356 | 3022454628.3991 | 2786232599.3272 | 52784.7762 |
| 69 | 0.069 | -0.0102 | 0.0327 | 205321146.3645 | 2499464660.1092 | 49994.6463 |
| 70 | 0.069 | 0.0053 | 0.03 | 52399780.1294 | 2254758172.1112 | 47484.294 |
| 71 | 0.069 | -0.0067 | 0.0279 | 40526520.6937 | 2053464385.6187 | 45315.1673 |
| 72 | 0.069 | -5e-04 | 0.0256 | 206432.7147 | 1882359556.21 | 43386.1678 |
