| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 652620.832 | 545001.4944 | 769930.5346 | 0.3052 | 5e-04 | 0.6587 | 5e-04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 900016.4302 | 772789.7533 | 1036933.4725 | 0.2249 | 0.999 | 0.221 | 0.7592 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1154568.1335 | 1009825.9681 | 1309000.6645 | 0.151 | 1 | 0.4706 | 0.9999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1543480.538 | 1375369.7081 | 1721281.7337 | 0.374 | 1 | 0.9424 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1557982.2993 | 1389060.8632 | 1736594.1016 | 0.2758 | 0.6841 | 0.128 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1575885.0074 | 1405968.0483 | 1755492.3328 | 0.2285 | 0.7845 | 0.8103 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2927889.2621 | 2694523.1082 | 3170945.7828 | 0.308 | 1 | 0.5293 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2741763.7873 | 2516093.4736 | 2977124.468 | 0.3497 | 0.151 | 0.3888 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1438943.9058 | 1276792.713 | 1610785.4658 | 0.2946 | 0 | 0.6421 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1394022.4961 | 1234498.6421 | 1563236.7176 | 0.3744 | 0.5112 | 0.6087 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 993654.6043 | 859727.4671 | 1137272.1092 | 0.259 | 0 | 0.6545 | 0.9743 |
| 72 | 859626 | 899231.9167 | 772062.7968 | 1036091.4045 | 0.2853 | 0.2502 | 0.7558 | 0.7558 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0917 | 0.0467 | 0 | 930077258.2408 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0776 | -0.0587 | 0.0527 | 2787040687.4054 | 1858558972.8231 | 43111.0076 |
| 63 | 0.0682 | -0.0704 | 0.0586 | 6611663046.3479 | 3442926997.3314 | 58676.4603 |
| 64 | 0.0588 | -0.0189 | 0.0487 | 849987084.8386 | 2794692019.2082 | 52864.8467 |
| 65 | 0.0585 | -0.0348 | 0.0459 | 2942877978.957 | 2824329211.1579 | 53144.4184 |
| 66 | 0.0581 | -0.0433 | 0.0455 | 4647558932.4027 | 3128200831.3654 | 55930.3212 |
| 67 | 0.0424 | -0.0212 | 0.042 | 3867753087.7059 | 3233851153.6997 | 56866.9601 |
| 68 | 0.0438 | 0.0169 | 0.0389 | 2149640217.7214 | 3098324786.7025 | 55662.5977 |
| 69 | 0.0609 | -0.0329 | 0.0382 | 2241824181.7031 | 3003158052.8136 | 54801.0771 |
| 70 | 0.0619 | -0.0198 | 0.0364 | 764218165.4951 | 2779264064.0818 | 52718.7259 |
| 71 | 0.0737 | -0.0477 | 0.0374 | 2242932118.3367 | 2730506614.4686 | 52254.2497 |
| 72 | 0.0777 | -0.044 | 0.0379 | 1568628635.9958 | 2633683449.5959 | 51319.4257 |
