| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 643404.1547 | 549824.5385 | 744334.1234 | 0.2203 | 0 | 0.6165 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 918524.6925 | 805765.466 | 1038665.6615 | 0.1224 | 0.9999 | 0.283 | 0.8652 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1108547.5003 | 983635.2641 | 1240924.1878 | 0.3006 | 0.9999 | 0.2214 | 0.9999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1544601.3256 | 1396404.7571 | 1700270.2288 | 0.3515 | 1 | 0.9651 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1635492.5779 | 1481716.2901 | 1796859.4866 | 0.0548 | 0.9295 | 0.376 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1519346.0963 | 1370684.6974 | 1675659.611 | 0.442 | 0.5776 | 0.6183 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 3003117.1586 | 2792587.5259 | 3221296.8285 | 0.1085 | 1 | 0.7756 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2662316.8226 | 2463506.8232 | 2868840.7613 | 0.1162 | 0.0268 | 0.141 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1356212.9683 | 1214984.0718 | 1505205.0457 | 0.3208 | 0 | 0.2519 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1357695.5585 | 1216405.9372 | 1506746.263 | 0.4546 | 0.3279 | 0.4347 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 974462.2437 | 855157.6252 | 1101554.6846 | 0.332 | 0 | 0.5609 | 0.9717 |
| 72 | 859626 | 847547.0188 | 736271.7651 | 966649.8725 | 0.4212 | 0.0521 | 0.4783 | 0.4783 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.08 | 0.0617 | 0 | 1577189509.6966 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0667 | -0.0776 | 0.0697 | 5083788756.5946 | 3330489133.1456 | 57710.3902 |
| 63 | 0.0609 | -0.0318 | 0.0571 | 1245489995.6115 | 2635489420.6343 | 51337.018 |
| 64 | 0.0514 | -0.0196 | 0.0477 | 916595337.4091 | 2205765899.828 | 46965.5821 |
| 65 | 0.0503 | -0.0806 | 0.0543 | 17360322837.1549 | 5236677287.2934 | 72364.8899 |
| 66 | 0.0525 | -0.0077 | 0.0465 | 135352196.283 | 4386456438.7916 | 66230.3287 |
| 67 | 0.0371 | -0.0458 | 0.0464 | 18884025141.6524 | 6457537682.0575 | 80358.8059 |
| 68 | 0.0396 | 0.0473 | 0.0465 | 15828452348.4422 | 7628902015.3556 | 87343.586 |
| 69 | 0.0561 | 0.0261 | 0.0442 | 1251958932.5798 | 6920352783.936 | 83188.6578 |
| 70 | 0.056 | 0.0064 | 0.0405 | 75384789.6129 | 6235855984.5037 | 78967.4362 |
| 71 | 0.0665 | -0.0289 | 0.0394 | 793393618.7277 | 5741086678.5241 | 75769.9589 |
| 72 | 0.0717 | 0.0143 | 0.0373 | 145901786.6203 | 5274821270.8654 | 72627.9648 |
