| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | -5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | -1 | -1.77382944795198 | 0.211274912247841 | 0.20001889309162 | 0.976560021429156 |
| 3 | -2 | -2.02479420735787 | 0.193544028057739 | 0.189023105177987 | -0.208563074895316 |
| 4 | -5 | -4.26069951788858 | 0.104002836339967 | 0.159944881212317 | -1.12008103594118 |
| 5 | -4 | -4.15905614042949 | 0.103902581689600 | 0.159924997706496 | -0.00108287981654410 |
| 6 | -6 | -5.58964359315231 | 0.0280398111565275 | 0.148940542983979 | -0.69937221675681 |
| 7 | -2 | -3.06559186738481 | 0.168095646338369 | 0.165174453357078 | 1.1299346823373 |
| 8 | -2 | -2.36035299896376 | 0.201451489227884 | 0.168404471015237 | 0.241672950238531 |
| 9 | -2 | -2.16588931403778 | 0.200981042301720 | 0.168365557468544 | -0.00312687721026575 |
| 10 | -2 | -2.11484847806029 | 0.1902128444721 | 0.167594358917550 | -0.0667752583694587 |
| 11 | 2 | 0.849536576742491 | 0.400048680124927 | 0.180727271455532 | 1.23036638014196 |
| 12 | 1 | 0.931308997837526 | 0.374947848287045 | 0.179345040483997 | -0.140656662573725 |
| 13 | -8 | -2.34305119162060 | 0.205662843995028 | -4.41674700122604 | -1.94395122561858 |
| 14 | -1 | -1.5641537774471 | 0.259367321086157 | 0.41732187316769 | 0.211882082227049 |
| 15 | 1 | 0.0982211972731248 | 0.382010533369148 | 0.429607873502221 | 0.608518389285963 |
| 16 | -1 | -0.939530454882225 | 0.258453923743743 | 0.425059319763131 | -0.62071273197226 |
| 17 | 2 | 0.998530372376115 | 0.406107799826226 | 0.427718398634983 | 0.733360809740196 |
| 18 | 2 | 1.52955856386508 | 0.417218437358495 | 0.427851629893576 | 0.0544666643747583 |
| 19 | 1 | 0.921881075909432 | 0.325112655473928 | 0.426966608008994 | -0.446370303482624 |
| 20 | -1 | -0.74750650026683 | 0.144313126850919 | 0.425464189907409 | -0.867887544034985 |
| 21 | -2 | -1.96288434622871 | 0.0201819275151884 | 0.424548111850123 | -0.591226693573065 |
| 22 | -2 | -2.30233379007671 | -0.0128402529252533 | 0.424329742612866 | -0.156282871078509 |
| 23 | -1 | -1.65012536056441 | 0.0485134718274015 | 0.424694440374885 | 0.288863270443312 |
| 24 | -8 | -6.69630223354873 | -0.423291912518622 | 0.422170267236718 | -2.21196771806144 |
| 25 | -4 | -2.47243865503734 | -0.0204072275732784 | -3.05980151793408 | 2.22318682179074 |
| 26 | -6 | -5.39863393853364 | -0.296305622069204 | 0.227076767827891 | -1.14147690679270 |
| 27 | -3 | -3.85355688547178 | -0.123816089456393 | 0.236232188823454 | 0.795613255258799 |
| 28 | -3 | -3.42411593355113 | -0.072071890879596 | 0.236982216189562 | 0.240055167122520 |
| 29 | -7 | -6.2909567377552 | -0.333608478085470 | 0.236008544837477 | -1.21197707982515 |
| 30 | -9 | -8.57618686486531 | -0.516413066551053 | 0.235872289565711 | -0.846044928229822 |
| 31 | -11 | -10.6945181435295 | -0.66659450178575 | 0.235880962781929 | -0.694332626607876 |
| 32 | -13 | -12.7624135254065 | -0.798067280146681 | 0.235914638849862 | -0.607321959013052 |
| 33 | -11 | -11.8229306027457 | -0.634944815429607 | 0.235867644507472 | 0.753005199039506 |
| 34 | -9 | -10.0494679889183 | -0.408725782281898 | 0.235805247839367 | 1.04368678808174 |
| 35 | -17 | -15.5244363743995 | -0.884791583015558 | 0.235925824592226 | -2.19538214172400 |
| 36 | -22 | -20.7647120906744 | -1.29420837698623 | 0.236019881567877 | -1.88732936021310 |
| 37 | -25 | -22.2796429299010 | -1.31455686243474 | -2.64738560112261 | -0.102254673300952 |
| 38 | -20 | -21.0382647951490 | -1.07389376429334 | 0.273994144742219 | 1.03195144432382 |
| 39 | -24 | -23.7262199305482 | -1.22569159822201 | 0.268287663068312 | -0.6977868616148 |
| 40 | -24 | -24.4412563749098 | -1.17764972812384 | 0.268717472639295 | 0.221379194225524 |
| 41 | -22 | -23.1148409333013 | -0.942035827125012 | 0.268975546911804 | 1.08510043145046 |
| 42 | -19 | -20.4775029729330 | -0.60521667719574 | 0.268651519154843 | 1.55075695758974 |
| 43 | -18 | -18.9788586751045 | -0.407230781082995 | 0.26837165931292 | 0.911444137545692 |
| 44 | -17 | -17.8028295252642 | -0.258228344591034 | 0.268158882065654 | 0.68590172006441 |
| 45 | -11 | -12.9825512783589 | 0.219738568321755 | 0.267522634573007 | 2.20012799112367 |
| 46 | -11 | -11.644915207715 | 0.324954475533504 | 0.267395006693746 | 0.484303382594108 |
| 47 | -12 | -12.0282673661011 | 0.258286751382450 | 0.26746819508178 | -0.306860201057517 |
| 48 | -10 | -10.6467051945781 | 0.364015518777832 | 0.267363369224524 | 0.48664142956986 |
| 49 | -15 | -11.4609626664968 | 0.254134965817154 | -3.1478320920414 | -0.537337054801445 |
| 50 | -15 | -14.3034361992511 | -0.0366932885849363 | 0.253927830966327 | -1.26926913357884 |
| 51 | -15 | -15.0225581156584 | -0.100873805628514 | 0.252028191059991 | -0.295170460468173 |
| 52 | -13 | -13.7252566963578 | 0.0307232213838618 | 0.25291283745688 | 0.606034797341179 |
| 53 | -8 | -9.62694562045432 | 0.413633947097418 | 0.253098386294985 | 1.76245497856273 |
| 54 | -13 | -12.233499192358 | 0.129316110519066 | 0.253417687881719 | -1.30841836457253 |
| 55 | -9 | -9.97285070634034 | 0.329956828765838 | 0.253126797283488 | 0.923311794412384 |
| 56 | -7 | -7.85622315728195 | 0.498150410404075 | 0.252886232403445 | 0.774002599067476 |
| 57 | -4 | -5.03655433512846 | 0.71669246591262 | 0.252596727396491 | 1.00571473779508 |
| 58 | -4 | -4.26957328735573 | 0.721426498188571 | 0.252591023657985 | 0.0217860000541891 |
| 59 | -2 | -2.57957783377539 | 0.812604907374142 | 0.252491658515299 | 0.419608067124001 |
| 60 | 0 | -0.634745009973535 | 0.919189755986214 | 0.252386773469111 | 0.490514508071339 |
