Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[167])
155	3.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
156	3.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
157	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
158	3.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
159	3.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
160	3.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
161	3.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
162	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
163	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
164	3.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
165	3.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
166	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
167	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
168	1.6	2.0108	1.652	2.3696	0.0124	0.3131	0	0.3131
169	1.1	2.0026	1.4557	2.5495	6e-04	0.9255	0	0.3635
170	1.2	1.962	1.2815	2.6426	0.0141	0.9935	1e-04	0.3455
171	0.6	1.7436	0.9575	2.5297	0.0022	0.9124	0	0.1871
172	0.6	1.9463	1.0703	2.8223	0.0013	0.9987	0.0012	0.3655
173	0	1.6867	0.7304	2.643	3e-04	0.987	0	0.1985
174	-0.1	1.4911	0.4612	2.521	0.0012	0.9977	0	0.1233
175	-0.6	1.5272	0.4288	2.6256	1e-04	0.9982	0	0.1534
176	-0.2	1.6941	0.5313	2.857	7e-04	0.9999	2e-04	0.247
177	-0.3	1.6817	0.4578	2.9057	8e-04	0.9987	0.0011	0.2515
178	-0.1	1.7645	0.4824	3.0466	0.0022	0.9992	0.0141	0.304
179	0.5	2.3058	0.9681	3.6435	0.0041	0.9998	0.6185	0.6185
180	0.9	2.3642	1.0185	3.7099	0.0165	0.9967	0.8671	0.6498

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
168	0.091	-0.2043	0	0.1688	0	0
169	0.1393	-0.4507	0.3275	0.8146	0.4917	0.7012
170	0.177	-0.3884	0.3478	0.5807	0.5214	0.7221
171	0.23	-0.6559	0.4248	1.3078	0.718	0.8473
172	0.2296	-0.6917	0.4782	1.8126	0.9369	0.9679
173	0.2893	-1	0.5652	2.8451	1.2549	1.1202
174	0.3524	-1.0671	0.6369	2.5315	1.4373	1.1989
175	0.367	-1.3929	0.7314	4.525	1.8233	1.3503
176	0.3502	-1.1181	0.7743	3.5877	2.0193	1.421
177	0.3713	-1.1784	0.8147	3.9273	2.2101	1.4866
178	0.3707	-1.0567	0.8367	3.4764	2.3252	1.5249
179	0.296	-0.7832	0.8323	3.2608	2.4032	1.5502
180	0.2904	-0.6193	0.8159	2.1438	2.3832	1.5438