Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.0052078015322195 |
beta | 0.748150948749452 |
gamma | 0.25528536166977 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 44 | 46.6829275162342 | -2.68292751623424 |
14 | 36 | 37.4190430644953 | -1.41904306449529 |
15 | 72 | 73.8530991176902 | -1.85309911769019 |
16 | 45 | 46.4992868689191 | -1.49928686891911 |
17 | 56 | 58.5280218489155 | -2.52802184891554 |
18 | 54 | 56.6166500130302 | -2.61665001303023 |
19 | 53 | 39.8250398059739 | 13.1749601940261 |
20 | 35 | 26.7460174628003 | 8.25398253719967 |
21 | 61 | 58.3124366705048 | 2.68756332949519 |
22 | 52 | 70.6780753105334 | -18.6780753105334 |
23 | 47 | 49.8765178806111 | -2.8765178806111 |
24 | 51 | 60.2589543160451 | -9.2589543160451 |
25 | 52 | 43.8820727191788 | 8.11792728082122 |
26 | 63 | 35.4182662438474 | 27.5817337561526 |
27 | 74 | 70.7026877438139 | 3.2973122561861 |
28 | 45 | 44.6347207925172 | 0.365279207482814 |
29 | 51 | 56.2770561007029 | -5.27705610070291 |
30 | 64 | 54.6076354785841 | 9.39236452141591 |
31 | 36 | 42.3875265574203 | -6.38752655742034 |
32 | 30 | 28.3372481923372 | 1.66275180766281 |
33 | 55 | 58.0193961688328 | -3.01939616883282 |
34 | 64 | 64.9214476290073 | -0.921447629007304 |
35 | 39 | 48.5935132205767 | -9.5935132205767 |
36 | 40 | 57.3421270504528 | -17.3421270504528 |
37 | 63 | 45.5357064917938 | 17.4642935082062 |
38 | 45 | 42.1670454537912 | 2.83295454620884 |
39 | 59 | 70.871765996104 | -11.8717659961041 |
40 | 55 | 44.2098670646111 | 10.7901329353889 |
41 | 40 | 54.3550646421634 | -14.3550646421634 |
42 | 64 | 56.2876626193856 | 7.71233738061445 |
43 | 27 | 40.2125612602168 | -13.2125612602168 |
44 | 28 | 28.295078420808 | -0.295078420808014 |
45 | 45 | 56.1952612606278 | -11.1952612606278 |
46 | 57 | 63.2805438281635 | -6.28054382816352 |
47 | 45 | 44.9988779073651 | 0.00112209263485852 |
48 | 69 | 51.5467253028107 | 17.4532746971893 |
49 | 60 | 48.8342287943918 | 11.1657712056082 |
50 | 56 | 41.8730315777751 | 14.1269684222249 |
51 | 58 | 66.3961330276469 | -8.3961330276469 |
52 | 50 | 45.9909501814054 | 4.00904981859455 |
53 | 51 | 49.6482746531891 | 1.35172534681087 |
54 | 53 | 57.2022581602745 | -4.20225816027445 |
55 | 37 | 36.1756493264523 | 0.824350673547698 |
56 | 22 | 27.8097452358259 | -5.80974523582585 |
57 | 55 | 52.5850986283772 | 2.41490137162282 |
58 | 70 | 61.0143960970928 | 8.98560390290722 |
59 | 62 | 44.7099668281243 | 17.2900331718757 |
60 | 58 | 55.9867291513162 | 2.01327084868375 |
61 | 39 | 51.7821660569171 | -12.7821660569171 |
62 | 49 | 45.5200718147799 | 3.47992818522015 |
63 | 58 | 64.3110080261975 | -6.31100802619751 |
64 | 47 | 47.0876940994298 | -0.0876940994297968 |
65 | 42 | 50.0740054724618 | -8.07400547246176 |
66 | 62 | 56.1550961322957 | 5.84490386770427 |
67 | 39 | 36.4460517136148 | 2.55394828638519 |
68 | 40 | 26.3985372376223 | 13.6014627623777 |
69 | 72 | 53.7141715402752 | 18.2858284597248 |
70 | 70 | 64.2963957269039 | 5.70360427309613 |
71 | 54 | 50.0674692452199 | 3.9325307547801 |
72 | 65 | 57.7044727938858 | 7.29552720611421 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 49.7600979167729 | 44.93399307301 | 54.5862027605359 |
74 | 47.8458222112158 | 43.0169907886171 | 52.6746536338144 |
75 | 64.890662188957 | 60.049021466264 | 69.73230291165 |
76 | 48.9424610210496 | 44.098824891789 | 53.7860971503103 |
77 | 50.1556222804349 | 45.2968040011599 | 55.0144405597099 |
78 | 60.5502489705729 | 55.6477129204628 | 65.452785020683 |
79 | 39.1243020066996 | 34.2506060901198 | 43.9979979232794 |
80 | 31.5989563297198 | 26.7279081957863 | 36.4700044636533 |
81 | 61.7540626591045 | 56.6889789637508 | 66.8191463544582 |
82 | 69.5189743771737 | 64.2907325284064 | 74.747216225941 |
83 | 54.0022555840128 | 48.8562735881468 | 59.1482375798789 |
84 | 62.9699373692392 | 38.8679760125794 | 87.071898725899 |