Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.00486104141907233 |
beta | 0.816160950605529 |
gamma | 0.253859759879226 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 44 | 46.6829275162342 | -2.68292751623424 |
14 | 36 | 37.4196383690258 | -1.41963836902578 |
15 | 72 | 73.8547395004858 | -1.85473950048576 |
16 | 45 | 46.5003158720121 | -1.50031587201206 |
17 | 56 | 58.5293158416863 | -2.52931584168627 |
18 | 54 | 56.6179340105627 | -2.61793401056273 |
19 | 53 | 39.8258696907352 | 13.1741303092648 |
20 | 35 | 26.743646417569 | 8.25635358243098 |
21 | 61 | 58.3026662710212 | 2.69733372897877 |
22 | 52 | 70.667386235984 | -18.6673862359840 |
23 | 47 | 49.8742525002373 | -2.87425250023728 |
24 | 51 | 60.2580225998112 | -9.25802259981117 |
25 | 52 | 43.8871165582438 | 8.11288344175625 |
26 | 63 | 35.4193642077538 | 27.5806357922462 |
27 | 74 | 70.6891963385838 | 3.31080366141622 |
28 | 45 | 44.6291098145291 | 0.370890185470877 |
29 | 51 | 56.2747338131084 | -5.2747338131084 |
30 | 64 | 54.6109523160435 | 9.38904768395653 |
31 | 36 | 42.3713431831259 | -6.37134318312594 |
32 | 30 | 28.331511805726 | 1.66848819427402 |
33 | 55 | 58.0298335364493 | -3.02983353644935 |
34 | 64 | 64.9666781000709 | -0.966678100070894 |
35 | 39 | 48.6148066632519 | -9.61480666325193 |
36 | 40 | 57.3813612933541 | -17.3813612933541 |
37 | 63 | 45.5542957343008 | 17.4457042656992 |
38 | 45 | 42.1556080302253 | 2.84439196977471 |
39 | 59 | 70.9117520359552 | -11.9117520359552 |
40 | 55 | 44.2410969906148 | 10.7589030093852 |
41 | 40 | 54.3989780908847 | -14.3989780908847 |
42 | 64 | 56.31950068984 | 7.68049931015996 |
43 | 27 | 40.237866253895 | -13.2378662538950 |
44 | 28 | 28.3092091538995 | -0.309209153899509 |
45 | 45 | 56.2456489846546 | -11.2456489846546 |
46 | 57 | 63.3572291256966 | -6.35722912569665 |
47 | 45 | 45.0549821644299 | -0.0549821644299016 |
48 | 69 | 51.6231072056786 | 17.3768927943214 |
49 | 60 | 48.836773674433 | 11.1632263255670 |
50 | 56 | 41.8713177071526 | 14.1286822928474 |
51 | 58 | 66.4498641015078 | -8.44986410150784 |
52 | 50 | 46.0047125046752 | 3.99528749532485 |
53 | 51 | 49.7060980762021 | 1.29390192379785 |
54 | 53 | 57.2169843150172 | -4.21698431501715 |
55 | 37 | 36.2146717814553 | 0.785328218544734 |
56 | 22 | 27.8192640714578 | -5.81926407145777 |
57 | 55 | 52.6377454166685 | 2.36225458333146 |
58 | 70 | 61.0751314840978 | 8.92486851590216 |
59 | 62 | 44.7456387149647 | 17.2543612850353 |
60 | 58 | 56.0090796359372 | 1.99092036406280 |
61 | 39 | 51.7658097966268 | -12.7658097966268 |
62 | 49 | 45.5049076490442 | 3.49509235095576 |
63 | 58 | 64.37374008907 | -6.37374008907004 |
64 | 47 | 47.0997914298967 | -0.0997914298967402 |
65 | 42 | 50.1236187423505 | -8.12361874235045 |
66 | 62 | 56.1828073203417 | 5.81719267965832 |
67 | 39 | 36.4783195968937 | 2.52168040310625 |
68 | 40 | 26.4156824424678 | 13.5843175575322 |
69 | 72 | 53.743136032433 | 18.2568639675670 |
70 | 70 | 64.318554376582 | 5.68144562341796 |
71 | 54 | 50.0664397763046 | 3.93356022369539 |
72 | 65 | 57.721027194788 | 7.27897280521199 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 49.7677557536904 | 44.9723508258603 | 54.5631606815204 |
74 | 47.8303317985974 | 43.0323487033887 | 52.6283148938061 |
75 | 64.9540477058196 | 60.1436204573966 | 69.7644749542427 |
76 | 48.9580772001707 | 44.1454702954959 | 53.7706841048456 |
77 | 50.2149796710722 | 45.3871498023985 | 55.0428095397458 |
78 | 60.5764855821967 | 55.704945190105 | 65.4480259742883 |
79 | 39.1585032248659 | 34.3153763919981 | 44.0016300577338 |
80 | 31.6070558725343 | 26.7665075557883 | 36.4476041892803 |
81 | 61.7905483341838 | 56.7546042387015 | 66.8264924296661 |
82 | 69.5812497677764 | 64.3796245834013 | 74.7828749521514 |
83 | 54.0389592068271 | 48.9195948056013 | 59.1583236080529 |
84 | 63.0247265400554 | 39.4857059737818 | 86.5637471063289 |