Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 62 | 48.0597721845123 | 0.438809647807576 | 3.54588131669584 | 1.57354753017656 |
3 | 66 | 52.6075402792847 | 1.21254641887133 | 3.23398221008467 | 1.69784159753678 |
4 | 59 | 55.196897804194 | 1.42576222524469 | 0.757802304723039 | 0.518056104064447 |
5 | 58 | 56.7474657807925 | 1.44205635486036 | 0.974649914617405 | 0.0471245700968842 |
6 | 61 | 58.5123192353288 | 1.47843238398802 | 1.74015611823267 | 0.125792982206389 |
7 | 41 | 55.5229329157744 | 1.03572082198720 | -3.65481966413236 | -1.81350760115556 |
8 | 27 | 49.6182155640278 | 0.422091070104714 | -4.86177924259477 | -2.93940161834491 |
9 | 58 | 50.8872940012819 | 0.489705041541521 | 4.83917127273958 | 0.373688244996032 |
10 | 70 | 55.0707456051864 | 0.758568568079706 | 4.56725852046717 | 1.69258734286791 |
11 | 49 | 54.7479114478633 | 0.686198814276719 | -2.59132078952599 | -0.512856998388462 |
12 | 59 | 55.8619648560587 | 0.712711230136431 | 1.84410451993083 | 0.209260503745663 |
13 | 44 | 56.2102932789977 | 0.724336651337164 | -10.1672209657321 | -0.330330369268821 |
14 | 36 | 52.9978655845587 | 0.550595808963865 | -5.21233157658326 | -1.99983014108562 |
15 | 72 | 55.9513481574925 | 0.679545079453177 | 9.7601272797712 | 1.09667763768074 |
16 | 45 | 54.8177833072999 | 0.58393566045628 | -4.97509991511472 | -0.845724481363 |
17 | 56 | 55.2100671607486 | 0.57440008249081 | 1.32727511458341 | -0.0933827996623771 |
18 | 54 | 54.844192057275 | 0.530571469084065 | 1.9163361892134 | -0.477263984019083 |
19 | 53 | 54.9588864543482 | 0.51238082511351 | -0.689924797490876 | -0.218436954150590 |
20 | 35 | 52.9973496699936 | 0.410448802847295 | -10.2063903347090 | -1.33642346160890 |
21 | 61 | 53.7916442489172 | 0.425406155891318 | 5.96765487376864 | 0.212218423268656 |
22 | 52 | 53.167550891779 | 0.386629854743144 | 2.30019097290813 | -0.591716224831296 |
23 | 47 | 52.8558009355291 | 0.36232564533282 | -3.4990023275797 | -0.401116083199345 |
24 | 51 | 52.3907511456306 | 0.337225517451316 | 1.50411936837785 | -0.489986388477468 |
25 | 52 | 53.1331519391485 | 0.339054207920607 | -2.82688702533649 | 0.286110773472820 |
26 | 63 | 55.8107031764728 | 0.392831392870773 | -1.04624331380961 | 1.41538539512040 |
27 | 74 | 57.6332490985803 | 0.436800349321582 | 11.7324351466442 | 0.807281734840497 |
28 | 45 | 57.0703406621145 | 0.404417354131301 | -8.87141218919692 | -0.559501095878015 |
29 | 51 | 56.0681686025309 | 0.359638497420152 | -0.510231058219521 | -0.796994854466369 |
30 | 64 | 56.9495348335839 | 0.375604084600534 | 5.32792319320188 | 0.300736105834529 |
31 | 36 | 54.1030393876645 | 0.281393320613122 | -7.2681865324244 | -1.88836276403969 |
32 | 30 | 51.8779910994564 | 0.211399010945687 | -13.3115959268030 | -1.49061077732025 |
33 | 55 | 51.0991219646514 | 0.184976775222993 | 7.33378245168349 | -0.596482511333149 |
34 | 64 | 52.4738256890102 | 0.215185757443916 | 7.34699369109719 | 0.725080347463454 |
35 | 39 | 51.3760692641207 | 0.184192139087732 | -7.69268005990597 | -0.810889291688109 |
36 | 40 | 49.7130745531784 | 0.147642570274642 | -2.9387304010156 | -1.16850670005281 |
37 | 63 | 51.8405964223862 | 0.167191446733645 | 3.38177882730635 | 1.3376441979419 |
38 | 45 | 51.5779860201348 | 0.160131530081514 | -4.99493046061466 | -0.274098748821633 |
39 | 59 | 50.895108502376 | 0.142190360730116 | 11.0615153520207 | -0.515707765343614 |
40 | 55 | 52.5346372207714 | 0.176807223093539 | -2.70325631829123 | 0.90460011278997 |
41 | 40 | 51.1462397448066 | 0.140270282058093 | -5.73373085676533 | -0.948006943457502 |
42 | 64 | 51.6259562999033 | 0.148031833012400 | 11.1900650557176 | 0.207289558900143 |
43 | 27 | 49.0650355969983 | 0.0881076514158906 | -12.5172993555984 | -1.67021700097748 |
44 | 28 | 47.58222884341 | 0.0546667273702632 | -13.9882077766203 | -0.977654965159655 |
45 | 45 | 46.0953522544883 | 0.0232256090199660 | 4.44812177250886 | -0.967850638149091 |
46 | 57 | 46.1237958841759 | 0.0233265332720753 | 10.8572520970193 | 0.00330500071976019 |
47 | 45 | 46.8224365275428 | 0.0353458485571801 | -4.30527936745036 | 0.432263225001445 |
48 | 69 | 50.4697307328244 | 0.0897151812255462 | 4.99454079739819 | 2.35094343313774 |
49 | 60 | 51.7856112804661 | 0.102837887569286 | 3.48101976194119 | 0.820339889895021 |
50 | 56 | 53.2653076605075 | 0.121261940597883 | -2.43386972899106 | 0.898329857720658 |
51 | 58 | 52.89516576079 | 0.113245087746417 | 6.89674204132185 | -0.312747898662718 |
52 | 50 | 52.7090692759089 | 0.107906503517759 | -1.63188193443569 | -0.188475617741982 |
53 | 51 | 53.213240835909 | 0.115155321105339 | -3.63669026764013 | 0.249291393763048 |
54 | 53 | 51.4209294827991 | 0.0805087726444711 | 8.45857807320653 | -1.20484683301625 |
55 | 37 | 50.71522883305 | 0.0665610586463731 | -10.8615549477149 | -0.499572656763515 |
56 | 22 | 48.5097972250097 | 0.0275639274452978 | -18.2044626383856 | -1.45305366354837 |
57 | 55 | 48.5333845576781 | 0.0274984448370330 | 6.48125901181083 | -0.00256000560218153 |
58 | 70 | 50.1573161653137 | 0.0523744088965303 | 13.9175367652720 | 1.03485707997136 |
59 | 62 | 53.0477739825201 | 0.0930402180971634 | -1.68144798393238 | 1.85489353670178 |
60 | 58 | 53.7658116416095 | 0.100827122248203 | 1.86244623340146 | 0.413073638120074 |
61 | 39 | 51.8077017429776 | 0.0795282592978184 | -4.88575862293053 | -1.37785229209219 |
62 | 49 | 51.4544558027878 | 0.0745312288340987 | -0.811612224101413 | -0.286117634131379 |
63 | 58 | 51.3138679537037 | 0.0716640859417043 | 7.48854516362709 | -0.140089812690450 |
64 | 47 | 50.9147085318999 | 0.0648480367139138 | -2.17594801076229 | -0.304099694632655 |
65 | 42 | 49.9005241499484 | 0.0487102047337609 | -3.92637963360346 | -0.695636940269711 |
66 | 62 | 50.0847680013577 | 0.0507407846279815 | 11.4151670815977 | 0.0875473461718351 |
67 | 39 | 49.867890016197 | 0.0467970781302325 | -9.87647960925 | -0.173532429737553 |
68 | 40 | 51.0594151431041 | 0.0631894214363188 | -15.3217537401326 | 0.745742192752294 |
69 | 72 | 53.4561576308915 | 0.0953074992742823 | 9.80596740754347 | 1.52788565374017 |
70 | 70 | 54.5697932795816 | 0.108582624677618 | 11.5934161465255 | 0.670388347514449 |
71 | 54 | 54.9852558253818 | 0.112283011449092 | -2.14985901041551 | 0.203296282712907 |
72 | 65 | 55.928543696999 | 0.121253337694937 | 5.89095897658286 | 0.554615216213689 |