| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 663307.8791 | 561951.5692 | 773063.0115 | 0.3618 | 4e-04 | 0.7349 | 4e-04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 911217.6189 | 791660.1502 | 1039179.4764 | 0.1635 | 0.9998 | 0.2576 | 0.8224 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1145959.6162 | 1008306.8466 | 1292417.0839 | 0.1653 | 1 | 0.4235 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1551472.8634 | 1387196.2252 | 1724940.0329 | 0.3373 | 1 | 0.9559 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1633488.9416 | 1464890.6311 | 1811268.3298 | 0.0763 | 0.9055 | 0.3787 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1552186.7543 | 1387011.7065 | 1726651.5359 | 0.3087 | 0.7069 | 0.7384 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 3021603.6429 | 2788853.9771 | 3263680.3116 | 0.1034 | 1 | 0.7974 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2670840.2362 | 2452080.9379 | 2898945.27 | 0.1568 | 0.047 | 0.1838 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1391725.6855 | 1234949.6339 | 1557867.4395 | 0.4994 | 0 | 0.4284 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1373280.9621 | 1217323.8355 | 1538635.3934 | 0.4674 | 0.4141 | 0.5146 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 973103.898 | 842334.8209 | 1113304.7399 | 0.3539 | 0 | 0.5477 | 0.9563 |
| 72 | 859626 | 870877.7166 | 747567.3538 | 1003596.849 | 0.434 | 0.1327 | 0.6163 | 0.6163 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0844 | 0.0299 | 0 | 392440890.2085 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0716 | -0.0702 | 0.05 | 4095183263.5188 | 2243812076.8636 | 47368.8936 |
| 63 | 0.0652 | -0.0634 | 0.0545 | 5285815812.7829 | 3257813322.17 | 57077.2575 |
| 64 | 0.057 | -0.0239 | 0.0469 | 1379889461.2722 | 2788332356.9456 | 52804.6623 |
| 65 | 0.0555 | -0.0794 | 0.0534 | 16836344876.7673 | 5597934860.9099 | 74819.3482 |
| 66 | 0.0573 | -0.0287 | 0.0493 | 1978003771.4982 | 4994613012.6746 | 70672.5761 |
| 67 | 0.0409 | -0.0516 | 0.0496 | 24306569478.0792 | 7753463936.3038 | 88053.7559 |
| 68 | 0.0436 | 0.0439 | 0.0489 | 13756419535.8789 | 8503833386.2507 | 92216.2317 |
| 69 | 0.0609 | -1e-04 | 0.0435 | 16818.3229 | 7558964878.7032 | 86942.3078 |
| 70 | 0.0614 | -0.005 | 0.0396 | 47650885.4036 | 6807833479.3732 | 82509.5963 |
| 71 | 0.0735 | -0.0275 | 0.0385 | 718717010.7109 | 6254277436.7676 | 79083.9898 |
| 72 | 0.0778 | -0.0129 | 0.0364 | 126601125.4192 | 5743637744.1552 | 75786.7914 |
