Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	61.02	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	52.38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	42.37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	39.83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	38.79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	37.33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	39.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	39.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	43.24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	42.33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	45.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	43.44	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	43.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	45.61	42.7624	36.8451	48.6798	0.1728	0.3556	7e-04	0.3556
50	45.12	43.2669	33.0137	53.5201	0.3616	0.3271	0.5681	0.4534
51	47.56	42.5833	27.778	57.3885	0.255	0.3685	0.6423	0.4318
52	47.04	43.0087	24.379	61.6383	0.3357	0.316	0.6714	0.4635
53	51.07	42.5605	20.2412	64.8798	0.2274	0.347	0.677	0.4539
54	54.72	42.8863	17.3775	68.3952	0.1816	0.2647	0.6056	0.4696
55	55.37	42.5806	14.0296	71.1315	0.19	0.2023	0.5851	0.4645
56	55.39	42.8205	11.5591	74.0819	0.2153	0.2157	0.4895	0.4735
57	53.13	42.6074	8.7543	76.4604	0.2712	0.2296	0.5064	0.4706
58	53.71	42.781	6.5609	79.0011	0.2771	0.2877	0.4415	0.4763
59	54.59	42.6308	4.1363	81.1252	0.2713	0.2863	0.4836	0.4746
60	54.61	42.7554	2.1442	83.3666	0.2836	0.2839	0.4784	0.4784

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0706	0.0666	0	8.1087	0	0
50	0.1209	0.0428	0.0547	3.4339	5.7713	2.4023
51	0.1774	0.1169	0.0754	24.7679	12.1035	3.479
52	0.221	0.0937	0.08	16.2518	13.1406	3.625
53	0.2676	0.1999	0.104	72.4113	24.9947	4.9995
54	0.3035	0.2759	0.1326	140.0356	44.1682	6.6459
55	0.3421	0.3004	0.1566	163.5699	61.2256	7.8247
56	0.3725	0.2935	0.1737	157.9919	73.3214	8.5628
57	0.4054	0.247	0.1819	110.726	77.4774	8.8021
58	0.432	0.2555	0.1892	119.4431	81.674	9.0374
59	0.4607	0.2805	0.1975	143.0231	87.2512	9.3408
60	0.4846	0.2773	0.2042	140.5317	91.6912	9.5756