| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 664459.2919 | 485801.5665 | 843117.0174 | 0.4189 | 0.0204 | 0.6548 | 0.0204 |
| 62 | 847224 | 900872.5864 | 717356.6263 | 1084388.5465 | 0.2833 | 0.99 | 0.2863 | 0.7034 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1131293.3285 | 945572.972 | 1317013.685 | 0.2701 | 0.9986 | 0.3794 | 0.9985 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1525242.1219 | 1339472.421 | 1711011.8227 | 0.4542 | 1 | 0.9057 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1592855.0333 | 1407020.3325 | 1778689.7341 | 0.1736 | 0.7962 | 0.2345 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1522735.0897 | 1336900.3113 | 1708569.868 | 0.4371 | 0.5794 | 0.6137 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2963201.7593 | 2777364.7109 | 3149038.8076 | 0.1519 | 1 | 0.6803 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2675571.725 | 2489734.6549 | 2861408.7952 | 0.1176 | 0.0225 | 0.1455 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1390504.2266 | 1204667.4812 | 1576340.9719 | 0.4954 | 0 | 0.4308 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359721.8717 | 1173885.4355 | 1545558.3079 | 0.472 | 0.3684 | 0.456 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 958235.6139 | 772413.2812 | 1144057.9466 | 0.4499 | 0 | 0.4735 | 0.8713 |
| 72 | 859626 | 862469.2941 | 676677.4369 | 1048261.1512 | 0.488 | 0.1883 | 0.5488 | 0.5488 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1372 | 0.0281 | 0 | 348147386.5767 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1039 | -0.0596 | 0.0438 | 2878170819.8768 | 1613159103.2267 | 40164.152 |
| 63 | 0.0838 | -0.0513 | 0.0463 | 3368331500.1033 | 2198216568.8523 | 46885.1423 |
| 64 | 0.0621 | -0.0072 | 0.0365 | 119161716.6574 | 1678452855.8035 | 40968.9255 |
| 65 | 0.0595 | -0.056 | 0.0404 | 7942558575.3893 | 2931273999.7207 | 54141.2412 |
| 66 | 0.0623 | -0.0099 | 0.0353 | 225693223.3244 | 2480343870.3213 | 49803.0508 |
| 67 | 0.032 | -0.0329 | 0.035 | 9506983070.5512 | 3484149470.3542 | 59026.6844 |
| 68 | 0.0354 | 0.0421 | 0.0359 | 12668915033.2309 | 4632245165.7137 | 68060.5992 |
| 69 | 0.0682 | 8e-04 | 0.032 | 1191969.259 | 4117683699.441 | 64169.1803 |
| 70 | 0.0697 | 0.0049 | 0.0293 | 44304043.9724 | 3710345733.8941 | 60912.6073 |
| 71 | 0.0989 | -0.0125 | 0.0277 | 142578260.2078 | 3386003236.2863 | 58189.3739 |
| 72 | 0.1099 | -0.0033 | 0.0257 | 8084321.1238 | 3104509993.3561 | 55718.1298 |
