Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[60])
4869-------
4960-------
5056-------
5158-------
5250-------
5351-------
5453-------
5537-------
5622-------
5755-------
5870-------
5962-------
6058-------
613953.040235.813170.26730.05510.28630.21420.2863
624952.435.171369.62870.34950.93630.34110.262
635865.848.571383.02870.18740.9720.81260.8126
644750.833.571368.02870.33280.20640.53630.2064
654251.233.971368.42870.14760.68360.50910.2196
666259.241.971376.42870.3750.97480.75970.5543
673938.821.571356.02870.49090.00420.58110.0145
684028.411.171345.62870.09350.11390.76674e-04
697254.837.571372.02870.02520.95390.49090.3579
707062.645.371379.82870.19990.14240.19990.6996
715448.431.171365.62870.2620.0070.06090.1374
726555.380338.151772.6090.13690.56240.38280.3828


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPESq.EMSERMSE
610.1657-0.26470197.127100
620.1678-0.06490.164811.5599104.343510.2149
630.1336-0.11850.149460.839789.84229.4785
640.173-0.07480.130714.439970.99178.4257
650.1717-0.17970.140584.639773.72138.5861
660.14850.04730.1257.840162.74117.9209
670.22660.00520.10790.0453.78387.3337
680.30950.40850.1454134.560263.88087.9925
690.16040.31390.1642295.840589.65419.4686
700.14040.11820.159654.760286.16479.2825
710.18160.11570.155631.360181.18259.0101
720.15870.17370.157192.537982.12889.0625