| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 649109.961 | 466849.827 | 831370.0951 | 0.3573 | 0.015 | 0.5892 | 0.015 |
| 62 | 847224 | 901493.1547 | 712544.1148 | 1090442.1945 | 0.2867 | 0.9883 | 0.294 | 0.7003 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1145123.4804 | 955683.955 | 1334563.0057 | 0.2286 | 0.999 | 0.4373 | 0.9988 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1523618.9433 | 1334142.8069 | 1713095.0797 | 0.4617 | 1 | 0.8984 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1559821.3461 | 1370342.4735 | 1749300.2187 | 0.2809 | 0.681 | 0.1464 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1552768.0841 | 1363289.007 | 1742247.1613 | 0.3206 | 0.694 | 0.7237 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2914064.3621 | 2724585.2697 | 3103543.4546 | 0.3084 | 1 | 0.4805 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2732136.6111 | 2542657.5175 | 2921615.7047 | 0.2812 | 0.0836 | 0.3262 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1425902.7095 | 1236423.6159 | 1615381.8032 | 0.3613 | 0 | 0.5774 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1380833.9025 | 1191354.8089 | 1570312.9962 | 0.4406 | 0.4557 | 0.5438 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 980281.8173 | 790802.7237 | 1169760.911 | 0.3626 | 0 | 0.5647 | 0.9097 |
| 72 | 859626 | 886375.6492 | 696896.5556 | 1075854.7429 | 0.391 | 0.2677 | 0.6434 | 0.6434 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1433 | 0.0524 | 0 | 1156546713.4473 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1069 | -0.0602 | 0.0563 | 2945141147.1561 | 2050843930.3017 | 45286.2444 |
| 63 | 0.0844 | -0.0628 | 0.0585 | 5164934732.4658 | 3088874197.6897 | 55577.6412 |
| 64 | 0.0634 | -0.0061 | 0.0454 | 86358795.0036 | 2338245347.0182 | 48355.4066 |
| 65 | 0.062 | -0.036 | 0.0435 | 3145790392.3481 | 2499754356.0842 | 49997.5435 |
| 66 | 0.0623 | -0.029 | 0.0411 | 2030050718.787 | 2421470416.5347 | 49208.4385 |
| 67 | 0.0332 | -0.0166 | 0.0376 | 2339304984.5898 | 2409732497.6854 | 49089.0262 |
| 68 | 0.0354 | 0.0205 | 0.0354 | 3135035630.7114 | 2500395389.3137 | 50003.9537 |
| 69 | 0.0678 | -0.0241 | 0.0342 | 1176950319.1736 | 2353345937.0759 | 48511.297 |
| 70 | 0.07 | -0.0105 | 0.0318 | 208973118.1536 | 2138908655.1837 | 46248.3368 |
| 71 | 0.0986 | -0.0347 | 0.0321 | 1155103752.3464 | 2049471845.8348 | 45271.0928 |
| 72 | 0.1091 | -0.0302 | 0.0319 | 715543733.91 | 1938311169.8411 | 44026.2555 |
