| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| BEL_20[t] = -694.276827768513 + 0.186289311341488Nikkei[t] + 0.238668063115473DJ_Indust[t] -0.0401626357343952Goudprijs[t] -3.31443430461099Conjunct_Seizoenzuiver[t] + 3.1995090939585Cons_vertrouw[t] + 39.6618902538806Alg_consumptie_index_BE[t] -302.748978637587Gem_rente_kasbon_5j[t] + 14.2294511552077t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | -694.276827768513 | 463.181345 | -1.4989 | 0.138886 | 0.069443 |
| Nikkei | 0.186289311341488 | 0.014166 | 13.1507 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ_Indust | 0.238668063115473 | 0.035119 | 6.7961 | 0 | 0 |
| Goudprijs | -0.0401626357343952 | 0.019447 | -2.0652 | 0.043021 | 0.021511 |
| Conjunct_Seizoenzuiver | -3.31443430461099 | 6.070118 | -0.546 | 0.586977 | 0.293489 |
| Cons_vertrouw | 3.1995090939585 | 7.424182 | 0.431 | 0.66797 | 0.333985 |
| Alg_consumptie_index_BE | 39.6618902538806 | 16.308848 | 2.4319 | 0.017873 | 0.008937 |
| Gem_rente_kasbon_5j | -302.748978637587 | 54.975934 | -5.5069 | 1e-06 | 0 |
| t | 14.2294511552077 | 4.624991 | 3.0766 | 0.003096 | 0.001548 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.985849235217833 |
| R-squared | 0.971898714579585 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.968330297383342 |
| F-TEST (value) | 272.361291051620 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 8 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 63 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 150.489825361688 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 1426772.81485565 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 2350.44 | 2487.02131874436 | -136.581318744363 |
| 2 | 2440.25 | 2478.91580104686 | -38.6658010468649 |
| 3 | 2408.64 | 2586.03003922044 | -177.390039220441 |
| 4 | 2472.81 | 2779.32284035828 | -306.512840358283 |
| 5 | 2407.6 | 2552.60846810745 | -145.008468107445 |
| 6 | 2454.62 | 2722.13412598806 | -267.514125988063 |
| 7 | 2448.05 | 2588.3076812174 | -140.257681217401 |
| 8 | 2497.84 | 2535.20927140303 | -37.3692714030259 |
| 9 | 2645.64 | 2596.49116635538 | 49.1488336446237 |
| 10 | 2756.76 | 2547.42932656193 | 209.330673438068 |
| 11 | 2849.27 | 2655.80271375331 | 193.467286246689 |
| 12 | 2921.44 | 2772.83767645926 | 148.602323540742 |
| 13 | 2981.85 | 2850.38426248588 | 131.465737514116 |
| 14 | 3080.58 | 3013.37984090707 | 67.2001590929269 |
| 15 | 3106.22 | 3091.08244265726 | 15.1375573427443 |
| 16 | 3119.31 | 2922.93124442423 | 196.378755575766 |
| 17 | 3061.26 | 2880.61973501399 | 180.640264986011 |
| 18 | 3097.31 | 3002.01934976858 | 95.2906502314214 |
| 19 | 3161.69 | 3126.56639002130 | 35.1236099786953 |
| 20 | 3257.16 | 3206.62112948458 | 50.538870515424 |
| 21 | 3277.01 | 3327.9963970342 | -50.9863970341988 |
| 22 | 3295.32 | 3328.49878197328 | -33.1787819732749 |
| 23 | 3363.99 | 3549.65334232637 | -185.663342326373 |
| 24 | 3494.17 | 3785.4780615772 | -291.308061577200 |
| 25 | 3667.03 | 3840.49091679821 | -173.460916798215 |
| 26 | 3813.06 | 3895.43834951639 | -82.378349516389 |
| 27 | 3917.96 | 3910.96674876031 | 6.99325123969077 |
| 28 | 3895.51 | 4002.90986145241 | -107.399861452414 |
| 29 | 3801.06 | 3789.08095459939 | 11.9790454006065 |
| 30 | 3570.12 | 3541.38474395526 | 28.7352560447420 |
| 31 | 3701.61 | 3508.93067997176 | 192.679320028236 |
| 32 | 3862.27 | 3698.22777675659 | 164.042223243408 |
| 33 | 3970.1 | 3848.72042868652 | 121.379571313481 |
| 34 | 4138.52 | 4086.98952228785 | 51.5304777121477 |
| 35 | 4199.75 | 4070.15856361785 | 129.591436382153 |
| 36 | 4290.89 | 4237.82689590292 | 53.0631040970839 |
| 37 | 4443.91 | 4355.20440441228 | 88.7055955877244 |
| 38 | 4502.64 | 4375.44658313298 | 127.193416867024 |
| 39 | 4356.98 | 4202.99735998728 | 153.982640012719 |
| 40 | 4591.27 | 4397.1229519667 | 194.147048033301 |
| 41 | 4696.96 | 4590.58289480372 | 106.377105196278 |
| 42 | 4621.4 | 4595.05713181937 | 26.3428681806313 |
| 43 | 4562.84 | 4602.57140316969 | -39.73140316969 |
| 44 | 4202.52 | 4238.09720034287 | -35.5772003428662 |
| 45 | 4296.49 | 4290.90014027307 | 5.58985972693068 |
| 46 | 4435.23 | 4520.57511193465 | -85.345111934655 |
| 47 | 4105.18 | 4125.96061717701 | -20.7806171770052 |
| 48 | 4116.68 | 4225.78714297501 | -109.107142975014 |
| 49 | 3844.49 | 3607.19117713873 | 237.298822861266 |
| 50 | 3720.98 | 3591.33284186625 | 129.647158133755 |
| 51 | 3674.4 | 3507.91951496874 | 166.480485031262 |
| 52 | 3857.62 | 3850.82185036344 | 6.79814963655667 |
| 53 | 3801.06 | 3973.36812494501 | -172.308124945013 |
| 54 | 3504.37 | 3688.75518496188 | -184.385184961879 |
| 55 | 3032.6 | 3187.4458297138 | -154.845829713798 |
| 56 | 3047.03 | 3253.06100858942 | -206.031008589422 |
| 57 | 2962.34 | 3126.91581941074 | -164.575819410737 |
| 58 | 2197.82 | 2038.50447139775 | 159.315528602246 |
| 59 | 2014.45 | 1891.44290525407 | 123.007094745931 |
| 60 | 1862.83 | 1890.41832365926 | -27.5883236592584 |
| 61 | 1905.41 | 1825.03887268300 | 80.3711273169951 |
| 62 | 1810.99 | 1497.77012922094 | 313.219870779062 |
| 63 | 1670.07 | 1492.50093920378 | 177.569060796216 |
| 64 | 1864.44 | 1908.70209595658 | -44.2620959565847 |
| 65 | 2052.02 | 2061.05625069554 | -9.03625069554037 |
| 66 | 2029.6 | 2166.05577177178 | -136.455771771780 |
| 67 | 2070.83 | 2159.25080121525 | -88.4208012152534 |
| 68 | 2293.41 | 2519.36423985320 | -225.954239853204 |
| 69 | 2443.27 | 2528.26721163569 | -84.9972116356874 |
| 70 | 2513.17 | 2513.01143088941 | 0.158569110587452 |
| 71 | 2466.92 | 2550.56186804724 | -83.641868047237 |
| 72 | 2502.66 | 2684.46354536869 | -181.803545368686 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 12 | 0.158795515063539 | 0.317591030127077 | 0.841204484936461 |
| 13 | 0.111718727605642 | 0.223437455211285 | 0.888281272394358 |
| 14 | 0.0600640817215143 | 0.120128163443029 | 0.939935918278486 |
| 15 | 0.0289275151511681 | 0.0578550303023362 | 0.971072484848832 |
| 16 | 0.0144575113630586 | 0.0289150227261172 | 0.985542488636941 |
| 17 | 0.0559859491349409 | 0.111971898269882 | 0.94401405086506 |
| 18 | 0.0786883005489053 | 0.157376601097811 | 0.921311699451095 |
| 19 | 0.054723175301944 | 0.109446350603888 | 0.945276824698056 |
| 20 | 0.0326035835140038 | 0.0652071670280075 | 0.967396416485996 |
| 21 | 0.0175940215637836 | 0.0351880431275671 | 0.982405978436216 |
| 22 | 0.00924010477361167 | 0.0184802095472233 | 0.990759895226388 |
| 23 | 0.007362607015966 | 0.014725214031932 | 0.992637392984034 |
| 24 | 0.00788623950635404 | 0.0157724790127081 | 0.992113760493646 |
| 25 | 0.0132137254807296 | 0.0264274509614592 | 0.98678627451927 |
| 26 | 0.0287516774673101 | 0.0575033549346203 | 0.97124832253269 |
| 27 | 0.0301946073766427 | 0.0603892147532855 | 0.969805392623357 |
| 28 | 0.0432135064307333 | 0.0864270128614665 | 0.956786493569267 |
| 29 | 0.181641068739809 | 0.363282137479617 | 0.818358931260191 |
| 30 | 0.739078903821189 | 0.521842192357622 | 0.260921096178811 |
| 31 | 0.747750425250416 | 0.504499149499167 | 0.252249574749584 |
| 32 | 0.761480134199222 | 0.477039731601557 | 0.238519865800778 |
| 33 | 0.780823816187647 | 0.438352367624706 | 0.219176183812353 |
| 34 | 0.874241187916358 | 0.251517624167285 | 0.125758812083643 |
| 35 | 0.955211303750926 | 0.0895773924981485 | 0.0447886962490742 |
| 36 | 0.95819890207012 | 0.0836021958597602 | 0.0418010979298801 |
| 37 | 0.967636398039393 | 0.0647272039212136 | 0.0323636019606068 |
| 38 | 0.962236834596462 | 0.075526330807076 | 0.037763165403538 |
| 39 | 0.954909164841078 | 0.0901816703178436 | 0.0450908351589218 |
| 40 | 0.940530169764407 | 0.118939660471187 | 0.0594698302355935 |
| 41 | 0.927301926326635 | 0.145396147346730 | 0.0726980736733652 |
| 42 | 0.93503381303516 | 0.129932373929680 | 0.0649661869648401 |
| 43 | 0.96160454147808 | 0.0767909170438408 | 0.0383954585219204 |
| 44 | 0.992791251763655 | 0.01441749647269 | 0.007208748236345 |
| 45 | 0.99587561619595 | 0.00824876760810101 | 0.00412438380405051 |
| 46 | 0.995005548277862 | 0.00998890344427602 | 0.00499445172213801 |
| 47 | 0.992590369988253 | 0.0148192600234936 | 0.00740963001174679 |
| 48 | 0.992152064895689 | 0.0156958702086226 | 0.00784793510431132 |
| 49 | 0.989609577059617 | 0.0207808458807661 | 0.0103904229403831 |
| 50 | 0.98701080429181 | 0.0259783914163800 | 0.0129891957081900 |
| 51 | 0.98896712948339 | 0.0220657410332195 | 0.0110328705166097 |
| 52 | 0.98194703914462 | 0.0361059217107615 | 0.0180529608553807 |
| 53 | 0.977982756537893 | 0.0440344869242131 | 0.0220172434621065 |
| 54 | 0.978152858285082 | 0.0436942834298364 | 0.0218471417149182 |
| 55 | 0.958349420244093 | 0.0833011595118133 | 0.0416505797559067 |
| 56 | 0.934122144317846 | 0.131755711364308 | 0.065877855682154 |
| 57 | 0.907942735703283 | 0.184114528593433 | 0.0920572642967166 |
| 58 | 0.830516147594944 | 0.338967704810112 | 0.169483852405056 |
| 59 | 0.986618706175916 | 0.0267625876481688 | 0.0133812938240844 |
| 60 | 0.954555267938476 | 0.0908894641230486 | 0.0454447320615243 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 2 | 0.0408163265306122 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 18 | 0.36734693877551 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 31 | 0.63265306122449 | NOK |
