| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| BEL_20[t] = -1886.04000678096 + 0.191792840371528Nikkei[t] + 0.288303751656477DJ_Indust[t] + 0.0147718309612608Goudprijs[t] -9.98349305638133Conjunct_Seizoenzuiver[t] -2.50766896022597Cons_vertrouw[t] + 33.9568643858045Alg_consumptie_index_BE[t] -255.69184028108Gem_rente_kasbon_5j[t] + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | -1886.04000678096 | 270.224455 | -6.9795 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikkei | 0.191792840371528 | 0.014953 | 12.8265 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ_Indust | 0.288303751656477 | 0.033193 | 8.6858 | 0 | 0 |
| Goudprijs | 0.0147718309612608 | 0.008199 | 1.8016 | 0.07632 | 0.03816 |
| Conjunct_Seizoenzuiver | -9.98349305638133 | 6.033247 | -1.6547 | 0.102872 | 0.051436 |
| Cons_vertrouw | -2.50766896022597 | 7.649392 | -0.3278 | 0.744113 | 0.372057 |
| Alg_consumptie_index_BE | 33.9568643858045 | 17.241466 | 1.9695 | 0.053229 | 0.026614 |
| Gem_rente_kasbon_5j | -255.69184028108 | 56.189516 | -4.5505 | 2.4e-05 | 1.2e-05 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.9837054952436 |
| R-squared | 0.967676501372457 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.96414111871007 |
| F-TEST (value) | 273.711955332998 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 7 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 64 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 160.133985897204 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 1641145.18011685 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 2350.44 | 2644.52226973597 | -294.08226973597 |
| 2 | 2440.25 | 2591.6935085745 | -151.443508574501 |
| 3 | 2408.64 | 2694.24239617322 | -285.602396173219 |
| 4 | 2472.81 | 2875.44001921294 | -402.630019212943 |
| 5 | 2407.6 | 2585.60087290272 | -178.000872902716 |
| 6 | 2454.62 | 2732.94972929247 | -278.329729292474 |
| 7 | 2448.05 | 2583.28819996326 | -135.238199963261 |
| 8 | 2497.84 | 2517.61342566693 | -19.7734256669314 |
| 9 | 2645.64 | 2573.36355195115 | 72.2764480488502 |
| 10 | 2756.76 | 2533.52907359763 | 223.230926402375 |
| 11 | 2849.27 | 2668.67035332043 | 180.599646679572 |
| 12 | 2921.44 | 2777.7390316414 | 143.700968358595 |
| 13 | 2981.85 | 2810.19182531178 | 171.658174688216 |
| 14 | 3080.58 | 2957.18251877454 | 123.397481225461 |
| 15 | 3106.22 | 3020.1160622249 | 86.1039377750954 |
| 16 | 3119.31 | 2856.50265543567 | 262.807344564329 |
| 17 | 3061.26 | 2847.85807442898 | 213.401925571025 |
| 18 | 3097.31 | 2987.19403896795 | 110.11596103205 |
| 19 | 3161.69 | 3101.06364918295 | 60.6263508170478 |
| 20 | 3257.16 | 3169.84060308332 | 87.3193969166838 |
| 21 | 3277.01 | 3303.22816215898 | -26.2181621589782 |
| 22 | 3295.32 | 3271.32318186744 | 23.9968181325595 |
| 23 | 3363.99 | 3532.18819246 | -168.198192460001 |
| 24 | 3494.17 | 3785.90185801967 | -291.73185801967 |
| 25 | 3667.03 | 3851.58081047638 | -184.550810476383 |
| 26 | 3813.06 | 3909.92717343976 | -96.8671734397561 |
| 27 | 3917.96 | 3935.63905870863 | -17.6790587086296 |
| 28 | 3895.51 | 4075.79262323747 | -180.282623237466 |
| 29 | 3801.06 | 3923.64733261763 | -122.587332617628 |
| 30 | 3570.12 | 3505.75287642029 | 64.3671235797117 |
| 31 | 3701.61 | 3507.86986753702 | 193.740132462985 |
| 32 | 3862.27 | 3695.22163010429 | 167.048369895706 |
| 33 | 3970.1 | 3812.15884936956 | 157.94115063044 |
| 34 | 4138.52 | 4018.99216934148 | 119.527830658519 |
| 35 | 4199.75 | 4045.36120653471 | 154.388793465295 |
| 36 | 4290.89 | 4236.48218094528 | 54.4078190547256 |
| 37 | 4443.91 | 4335.61262334952 | 108.297376650476 |
| 38 | 4502.64 | 4403.06192168819 | 99.5780783118134 |
| 39 | 4356.98 | 4190.67292615312 | 166.307073846883 |
| 40 | 4591.27 | 4377.34426916186 | 213.925730838143 |
| 41 | 4696.96 | 4571.73034500852 | 125.229654991476 |
| 42 | 4621.4 | 4565.31268828803 | 56.087311711967 |
| 43 | 4562.84 | 4589.48099026381 | -26.6409902638104 |
| 44 | 4202.52 | 4205.08179278783 | -2.56179278782505 |
| 45 | 4296.49 | 4296.5678631292 | -0.0778631292036487 |
| 46 | 4435.23 | 4572.62116297434 | -137.391162974342 |
| 47 | 4105.18 | 4188.10491509472 | -82.924915094721 |
| 48 | 4116.68 | 4276.06118970188 | -159.381189701878 |
| 49 | 3844.49 | 3682.14878243838 | 162.341217561616 |
| 50 | 3720.98 | 3662.70017341549 | 58.2798265845135 |
| 51 | 3674.4 | 3524.36380455471 | 150.036195445289 |
| 52 | 3857.62 | 3842.65385048212 | 14.9661495178809 |
| 53 | 3801.06 | 3956.29842765428 | -155.238427654278 |
| 54 | 3504.37 | 3662.62139313115 | -158.251393131149 |
| 55 | 3032.6 | 3195.12832183371 | -162.528321833709 |
| 56 | 3047.03 | 3182.65793008691 | -135.627930086909 |
| 57 | 2962.34 | 3044.78372345458 | -82.4437234545783 |
| 58 | 2197.82 | 1982.56027771883 | 215.259722281166 |
| 59 | 2014.45 | 1837.89267623246 | 176.557323767537 |
| 60 | 1862.83 | 1908.05860030339 | -45.2286003033879 |
| 61 | 1905.41 | 1841.71988517336 | 63.6901148266424 |
| 62 | 1810.99 | 1652.7428662126 | 158.247133787398 |
| 63 | 1670.07 | 1569.45106639554 | 100.618933604459 |
| 64 | 1864.44 | 1926.8019576247 | -62.3619576247028 |
| 65 | 2052.02 | 2073.70878135401 | -21.6887813540108 |
| 66 | 2029.6 | 2143.06199947823 | -113.46199947823 |
| 67 | 2070.83 | 2098.29620424375 | -27.466204243753 |
| 68 | 2293.41 | 2416.35750331553 | -122.947503315532 |
| 69 | 2443.27 | 2455.47321046387 | -12.2032104638691 |
| 70 | 2513.17 | 2451.72071577507 | 61.4492842249306 |
| 71 | 2466.92 | 2520.65788343882 | -53.7378834388213 |
| 72 | 2502.66 | 2708.80824493619 | -206.148244936194 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 11 | 0.505854090617104 | 0.988291818765792 | 0.494145909382896 |
| 12 | 0.700974909349596 | 0.598050181300807 | 0.299025090650404 |
| 13 | 0.918531286503864 | 0.162937426992273 | 0.0814687134961363 |
| 14 | 0.892759779021417 | 0.214480441957167 | 0.107240220978583 |
| 15 | 0.8660782380407 | 0.267843523918599 | 0.1339217619593 |
| 16 | 0.86648034865345 | 0.2670393026931 | 0.13351965134655 |
| 17 | 0.83754134043261 | 0.324917319134778 | 0.162458659567389 |
| 18 | 0.916663297805904 | 0.166673404388191 | 0.0833367021940955 |
| 19 | 0.905049303158132 | 0.189901393683736 | 0.0949506968418681 |
| 20 | 0.880231780292042 | 0.239536439415917 | 0.119768219707958 |
| 21 | 0.84449912144982 | 0.311001757100358 | 0.155500878550179 |
| 22 | 0.880063099614087 | 0.239873800771825 | 0.119936900385913 |
| 23 | 0.853738054341309 | 0.292523891317383 | 0.146261945658691 |
| 24 | 0.885071348926813 | 0.229857302146374 | 0.114928651073187 |
| 25 | 0.920476703590152 | 0.159046592819697 | 0.0795232964098484 |
| 26 | 0.927063590284131 | 0.145872819431738 | 0.0729364097158688 |
| 27 | 0.95499762198317 | 0.0900047560336614 | 0.0450023780168307 |
| 28 | 0.965258940966154 | 0.069482118067691 | 0.0347410590338455 |
| 29 | 0.987451343301985 | 0.0250973133960305 | 0.0125486566980152 |
| 30 | 0.990148104224632 | 0.019703791550737 | 0.00985189577536851 |
| 31 | 0.98665794603876 | 0.0266841079224821 | 0.013342053961241 |
| 32 | 0.988475076535893 | 0.0230498469282132 | 0.0115249234641066 |
| 33 | 0.991937459777008 | 0.0161250804459839 | 0.00806254022299196 |
| 34 | 0.993154172478057 | 0.0136916550438852 | 0.00684582752194259 |
| 35 | 0.993100247148823 | 0.0137995057023544 | 0.00689975285117722 |
| 36 | 0.99000114799435 | 0.0199977040113006 | 0.0099988520056503 |
| 37 | 0.98657991154674 | 0.0268401769065211 | 0.0134200884532605 |
| 38 | 0.979022041491126 | 0.041955917017747 | 0.0209779585088735 |
| 39 | 0.972226491202969 | 0.0555470175940622 | 0.0277735087970311 |
| 40 | 0.9614006004221 | 0.0771987991558008 | 0.0385993995779004 |
| 41 | 0.954783501077201 | 0.0904329978455974 | 0.0452164989227987 |
| 42 | 0.94250111327552 | 0.114997773448959 | 0.0574988867244794 |
| 43 | 0.934996691864158 | 0.130006616271683 | 0.0650033081358416 |
| 44 | 0.924985140420499 | 0.150029719159003 | 0.0750148595795013 |
| 45 | 0.956044888781052 | 0.0879102224378957 | 0.0439551112189479 |
| 46 | 0.971069026502952 | 0.0578619469940954 | 0.0289309734970477 |
| 47 | 0.97957590718105 | 0.0408481856379006 | 0.0204240928189503 |
| 48 | 0.97307423969702 | 0.0538515206059586 | 0.0269257603029793 |
| 49 | 0.996708005910833 | 0.00658398817833319 | 0.00329199408916659 |
| 50 | 0.997200308031106 | 0.00559938393778856 | 0.00279969196889428 |
| 51 | 0.995477680279964 | 0.00904463944007231 | 0.00452231972003615 |
| 52 | 0.996078075161607 | 0.0078438496767868 | 0.0039219248383934 |
| 53 | 0.996158286299355 | 0.00768342740128986 | 0.00384171370064493 |
| 54 | 0.99928657107326 | 0.00142685785347873 | 0.000713428926739364 |
| 55 | 0.997999780046884 | 0.00400043990623226 | 0.00200021995311613 |
| 56 | 0.994537825642462 | 0.0109243487150754 | 0.00546217435753769 |
| 57 | 0.992044725570226 | 0.0159105488595473 | 0.00795527442977364 |
| 58 | 0.981024562355698 | 0.0379508752886037 | 0.0189754376443019 |
| 59 | 0.996057916332778 | 0.00788416733444343 | 0.00394208366722172 |
| 60 | 0.985992727931948 | 0.0280145441361042 | 0.0140072720680521 |
| 61 | 0.95150346709066 | 0.096993065818681 | 0.0484965329093405 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 8 | 0.156862745098039 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 23 | 0.450980392156863 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 32 | 0.627450980392157 | NOK |
