| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| BEL_20[t] = -3817.4613946616 + 0.0945317983390053Nikkei[t] + 0.360449529459283DJ_Indust[t] + 0.0653703019067602Goudprijs[t] -14.6060391320068Conjunct_Seizoenzuiver[t] -3.86165594355231Cons_vertrouw[t] + 246.57375886206Alg_consumptie_index_BE[t] + 223.046859169249Gem_rente_kasbon_1j[t] + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | -3817.4613946616 | 616.247741 | -6.1947 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikkei | 0.0945317983390053 | 0.0505 | 1.8719 | 0.06803 | 0.034015 |
| DJ_Indust | 0.360449529459283 | 0.069986 | 5.1503 | 6e-06 | 3e-06 |
| Goudprijs | 0.0653703019067602 | 0.05824 | 1.1224 | 0.267912 | 0.133956 |
| Conjunct_Seizoenzuiver | -14.6060391320068 | 7.767973 | -1.8803 | 0.066853 | 0.033427 |
| Cons_vertrouw | -3.86165594355231 | 8.349519 | -0.4625 | 0.646054 | 0.323027 |
| Alg_consumptie_index_BE | 246.57375886206 | 52.887813 | 4.6622 | 3e-05 | 1.5e-05 |
| Gem_rente_kasbon_1j | 223.046859169249 | 118.488654 | 1.8824 | 0.066555 | 0.033278 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.98353031074024 |
| R-squared | 0.967331872144792 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.962013804819526 |
| F-TEST (value) | 181.895379087991 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 7 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 43 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 163.422316729577 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 1148394.70502627 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 1635.25 | 1683.47630700722 | -48.2263070072228 |
| 2 | 1833.42 | 1675.75837539814 | 157.661624601860 |
| 3 | 1910.43 | 1603.20399216471 | 307.226007835285 |
| 4 | 1959.67 | 1983.53911687270 | -23.8691168727036 |
| 5 | 1969.6 | 2045.23056138458 | -75.6305613845798 |
| 6 | 2061.41 | 2204.48818114559 | -143.078181145595 |
| 7 | 2093.48 | 2311.68507228755 | -218.205072287552 |
| 8 | 2120.88 | 2358.65796671820 | -237.777966718203 |
| 9 | 2174.56 | 2360.38686648766 | -185.826866487657 |
| 10 | 2196.72 | 2435.55452693567 | -238.834526935670 |
| 11 | 2350.44 | 2608.2934945071 | -257.853494507099 |
| 12 | 2440.25 | 2457.45062860971 | -17.2006286097128 |
| 13 | 2408.64 | 2374.37292714762 | 34.2670728523819 |
| 14 | 2472.81 | 2631.40488612628 | -158.59488612628 |
| 15 | 2407.6 | 2578.20332275917 | -170.603322759174 |
| 16 | 2454.62 | 2652.56601794605 | -197.946017946046 |
| 17 | 2448.05 | 2584.83597332654 | -136.785973326542 |
| 18 | 2497.84 | 2470.29086467044 | 27.5491353295608 |
| 19 | 2645.64 | 2507.19727042017 | 138.442729579831 |
| 20 | 2756.76 | 2680.85868887280 | 75.9013111271972 |
| 21 | 2849.27 | 2789.89164994631 | 59.3783500536878 |
| 22 | 2921.44 | 2824.72206535685 | 96.7179346431536 |
| 23 | 2981.85 | 2770.43108403516 | 211.418915964839 |
| 24 | 3080.58 | 2950.14330419146 | 130.436695808542 |
| 25 | 3106.22 | 3096.52930272616 | 9.69069727383502 |
| 26 | 3119.31 | 2894.34721707433 | 224.962782925666 |
| 27 | 3061.26 | 2858.61615078845 | 202.643849211553 |
| 28 | 3097.31 | 3046.6253788952 | 50.6846211047988 |
| 29 | 3161.69 | 3140.96061965951 | 20.7293803404903 |
| 30 | 3257.16 | 3180.08459715772 | 77.0754028422763 |
| 31 | 3277.01 | 3269.50868143511 | 7.50131856489218 |
| 32 | 3295.32 | 3058.89283843997 | 236.427161560029 |
| 33 | 3363.99 | 3375.41812964038 | -11.4281296403797 |
| 34 | 3494.17 | 3689.96740301083 | -195.797403010828 |
| 35 | 3667.03 | 3712.5213321679 | -45.4913321679013 |
| 36 | 3813.06 | 3710.3815878858 | 102.678412114204 |
| 37 | 3917.96 | 3665.17578458137 | 252.784215418635 |
| 38 | 3895.51 | 3960.87192298474 | -65.3619229847421 |
| 39 | 3801.06 | 4103.47835636203 | -302.41835636203 |
| 40 | 3570.12 | 3626.52915156129 | -56.4091515612881 |
| 41 | 3701.61 | 3611.96664528193 | 89.6433547180742 |
| 42 | 3862.27 | 3762.28442902992 | 99.9855709700786 |
| 43 | 3970.1 | 3761.48035005156 | 208.619649948443 |
| 44 | 4138.52 | 3926.01104938168 | 212.508950618324 |
| 45 | 4199.75 | 4107.2204100203 | 92.5295899796992 |
| 46 | 4290.89 | 4266.46593299463 | 24.4240670053703 |
| 47 | 4443.91 | 4446.53617052913 | -2.62617052912971 |
| 48 | 4502.64 | 4643.01217215573 | -140.372172155729 |
| 49 | 4356.98 | 4461.73902859837 | -104.759028598376 |
| 50 | 4591.27 | 4646.50277396368 | -55.2327739636803 |
| 51 | 4696.96 | 4758.51943930459 | -61.5594393045858 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 11 | 0.0497425766103968 | 0.0994851532207936 | 0.950257423389603 |
| 12 | 0.0148321426277294 | 0.0296642852554589 | 0.98516785737227 |
| 13 | 0.0050989598031633 | 0.0101979196063266 | 0.994901040196837 |
| 14 | 0.00426894390616423 | 0.00853788781232845 | 0.995731056093836 |
| 15 | 0.00248796986266188 | 0.00497593972532376 | 0.997512030137338 |
| 16 | 0.00752968736296734 | 0.0150593747259347 | 0.992470312637033 |
| 17 | 0.00546500977281116 | 0.0109300195456223 | 0.994534990227189 |
| 18 | 0.0443184204840014 | 0.0886368409680028 | 0.955681579515999 |
| 19 | 0.59727394083236 | 0.80545211833528 | 0.40272605916764 |
| 20 | 0.979489691324259 | 0.0410206173514823 | 0.0205103086757411 |
| 21 | 0.994398109990278 | 0.0112037800194444 | 0.00560189000972219 |
| 22 | 0.999591095785232 | 0.000817808429535627 | 0.000408904214767813 |
| 23 | 0.99993982456802 | 0.000120350863960695 | 6.01754319803474e-05 |
| 24 | 0.999959840527761 | 8.03189444773857e-05 | 4.01594722386928e-05 |
| 25 | 0.999916746487762 | 0.000166507024476901 | 8.32535122384506e-05 |
| 26 | 0.999932954230886 | 0.000134091538227209 | 6.70457691136043e-05 |
| 27 | 0.999909030643443 | 0.000181938713113188 | 9.09693565565942e-05 |
| 28 | 0.999806962288686 | 0.000386075422627289 | 0.000193037711313644 |
| 29 | 0.99958441129392 | 0.000831177412160723 | 0.000415588706080362 |
| 30 | 0.99901887330792 | 0.00196225338416000 | 0.000981126692079998 |
| 31 | 0.998688432252603 | 0.00262313549479316 | 0.00131156774739658 |
| 32 | 0.999068369751712 | 0.00186326049657528 | 0.000931630248287642 |
| 33 | 0.997551003488711 | 0.00489799302257725 | 0.00244899651128862 |
| 34 | 0.997244734496097 | 0.0055105310078059 | 0.00275526550390295 |
| 35 | 0.996554918795097 | 0.00689016240980528 | 0.00344508120490264 |
| 36 | 0.990968239285597 | 0.0180635214288056 | 0.00903176071440281 |
| 37 | 0.987201599317017 | 0.0255968013659651 | 0.0127984006829826 |
| 38 | 0.968003728206333 | 0.0639925435873345 | 0.0319962717936672 |
| 39 | 0.980317124643933 | 0.0393657507121339 | 0.0196828753560669 |
| 40 | 0.990179485933287 | 0.0196410281334253 | 0.00982051406671264 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 16 | 0.533333333333333 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 26 | 0.866666666666667 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 29 | 0.966666666666667 | NOK |
