| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 661474.7313 | 594878.4172 | 735526.4664 | 0.2834 | 0 | 0.8111 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 892443.4197 | 802552.7665 | 992402.3574 | 0.1876 | 1 | 0.1148 | 0.7926 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1125021.8013 | 1010152.623 | 1252953.291 | 0.2139 | 1 | 0.294 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1546058.4876 | 1388051.3649 | 1722052.1572 | 0.3619 | 1 | 0.9474 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1594158.4418 | 1431085.1958 | 1775814.0083 | 0.1646 | 0.8055 | 0.2337 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1526656.8385 | 1370455.1196 | 1700662.1152 | 0.4155 | 0.6019 | 0.6378 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2986778.0462 | 2681152.8606 | 3327241.5119 | 0.2429 | 1 | 0.6523 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2640877.1169 | 2370639.5649 | 2941919.999 | 0.1689 | 0.0716 | 0.1901 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1376242.8922 | 1235415.5999 | 1533123.3461 | 0.4239 | 0 | 0.3503 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1353113.9417 | 1214656.3984 | 1507354.1304 | 0.4331 | 0.3124 | 0.4141 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 954340.9283 | 856724.0044 | 1063080.5285 | 0.4423 | 0 | 0.4272 | 0.9689 |
| 72 | 859626 | 858304.9654 | 770512.3105 | 956100.7705 | 0.4894 | 0.0389 | 0.5594 | 0.5594 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0571 | 0.0327 | 0 | 468431080.3524 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0571 | -0.0507 | 0.0417 | 2044795918.6266 | 1256613499.4895 | 35448.7447 |
| 63 | 0.058 | -0.046 | 0.0431 | 2679698183.018 | 1730975060.6657 | 41604.9884 |
| 64 | 0.0581 | -0.0205 | 0.0375 | 1006950771.4793 | 1549968988.3691 | 39369.6455 |
| 65 | 0.0581 | -0.0567 | 0.0413 | 8176579683.0336 | 2875291127.302 | 53621.7412 |
| 66 | 0.0582 | -0.0124 | 0.0365 | 358906904.885 | 2455893756.8991 | 49556.9749 |
| 67 | 0.0582 | -0.0405 | 0.0371 | 14660377598.2397 | 4199391448.5192 | 64802.7117 |
| 68 | 0.0582 | 0.0558 | 0.0394 | 21682822580.2801 | 6384820339.9893 | 79905.0708 |
| 69 | 0.0582 | 0.0112 | 0.0363 | 235717917.9068 | 5701586737.5357 | 75508.852 |
| 70 | 0.0582 | 0.0098 | 0.0336 | 175935243.3695 | 5149021588.1191 | 71756.6832 |
| 71 | 0.0581 | -0.0084 | 0.0313 | 64736961.6096 | 4686813894.8 | 68460.3089 |
| 72 | 0.0581 | 0.0015 | 0.0289 | 1745132.288 | 4296391497.924 | 65546.8649 |
