| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[2970]) |
| 2963 | 32275 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2964 | 32200 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2965 | 31835 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2966 | 31985 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2967 | 31875 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2968 | 31795 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2969 | 32260 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2970 | 33255 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2971 | 33160 | 33160.9537 | 32158.2474 | 34207.9825 | 0.4993 | 0.4301 | 0.964 | 0.4301 |
| 2972 | 32195 | 33142.0071 | 31788.7303 | 34577.3324 | 0.098 | 0.4902 | 0.9629 | 0.4387 |
| 2973 | 33130 | 33113.5251 | 31494.0075 | 34852.0774 | 0.4926 | 0.8498 | 0.8984 | 0.4366 |
| 2974 | 33950 | 33141.6743 | 31311.22 | 35125.5164 | 0.2123 | 0.5046 | 0.8946 | 0.4554 |
| 2975 | 34210 | 33122.513 | 31094.7382 | 35340.361 | 0.1683 | 0.2323 | 0.8796 | 0.4534 |
| 2976 | 33855 | 33136.9905 | 30937.8466 | 35561.3643 | 0.2808 | 0.1928 | 0.7608 | 0.462 |
| 2977 | 33735 | 33125.5821 | 30765.1893 | 35747.5036 | 0.3244 | 0.2928 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 2971 | 0.0161 | 0 | 0 | 0.9095 | 0 | 0 |
| 2972 | 0.0221 | -0.0286 | 0.0143 | 896822.406 | 448411.6577 | 669.6355 |
| 2973 | 0.0268 | 5e-04 | 0.0097 | 271.4222 | 299031.5792 | 546.8378 |
| 2974 | 0.0305 | 0.0244 | 0.0134 | 653390.4317 | 387621.2923 | 622.5924 |
| 2975 | 0.0342 | 0.0328 | 0.0173 | 1182627.9428 | 546622.6224 | 739.3393 |
| 2976 | 0.0373 | 0.0217 | 0.018 | 515537.6762 | 541441.7981 | 735.8273 |
| 2977 | 0.0404 | 0.0184 | 0.0181 | 371390.2181 | 517148.7152 | 719.1305 |
