Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[191])
179	152.38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
180	152.59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
181	152.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
182	153.29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
183	152.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
184	152.49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
185	152.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
186	151.57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
187	151.55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
188	151.79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
189	151.52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
190	151.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
191	151.92	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
192	152.2	152.0587	151.3441	152.7767	0.3499	0.6476	0.0735	0.6476
193	152.75	152.4944	151.402	153.5947	0.3245	0.7	0.2461	0.8469
194	153.49	153.1521	151.7582	154.5587	0.3189	0.7123	0.4238	0.957
195	153.78	153.1761	151.5335	154.8365	0.238	0.3555	0.8353	0.9309
196	154.1	153.4667	151.6041	155.3522	0.2552	0.3723	0.845	0.9461
197	154.62	153.684	151.6243	155.7717	0.1898	0.3481	0.9182	0.9512
198	154.65	153.7067	151.4693	155.9771	0.2077	0.2152	0.9674	0.9385
199	154.81	154.1863	151.7773	156.6336	0.3087	0.3552	0.9826	0.9652
200	154.92	154.1824	151.6196	156.7885	0.2895	0.3185	0.964	0.9556
201	155.4	154.2278	151.5192	156.9847	0.2023	0.3113	0.9729	0.9496
202	155.63	154.3666	151.5181	157.2686	0.1967	0.2426	0.9608	0.9508
203	155.76	154.6348	151.6501	157.6782	0.2343	0.2608	0.9598	0.9598

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
192	0.0024	9e-04	0	0.02	0	0
193	0.0037	0.0017	0.0013	0.0653	0.0426	0.2065
194	0.0047	0.0022	0.0016	0.1142	0.0665	0.2579
195	0.0055	0.0039	0.0022	0.3647	0.1411	0.3756
196	0.0063	0.0041	0.0026	0.4011	0.1931	0.4394
197	0.0069	0.0061	0.0032	0.8761	0.3069	0.554
198	0.0075	0.0061	0.0036	0.8899	0.3902	0.6246
199	0.0081	0.004	0.0036	0.389	0.39	0.6245
200	0.0086	0.0048	0.0038	0.544	0.4071	0.6381
201	0.0091	0.0076	0.0042	1.3742	0.5038	0.7098
202	0.0096	0.0082	0.0045	1.5962	0.6031	0.7766
203	0.01	0.0073	0.0047	1.2662	0.6584	0.8114