Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[191])
179	152.38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
180	152.59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
181	152.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
182	153.29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
183	152.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
184	152.49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
185	152.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
186	151.57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
187	151.55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
188	151.79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
189	151.52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
190	151.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
191	151.92	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
192	152.2	152.0437	151.3299	152.7609	0.3346	0.6323	0.0677	0.6323
193	152.75	152.4923	151.4046	153.5878	0.3224	0.6995	0.2439	0.8471
194	153.49	153.1315	151.7652	154.5101	0.3051	0.7062	0.4109	0.9575
195	153.78	153.149	151.5555	154.7593	0.2212	0.3391	0.8346	0.9327
196	154.1	153.4386	151.6435	155.255	0.2377	0.3563	0.847	0.9494
197	154.62	153.6512	151.675	155.6531	0.1714	0.3302	0.9223	0.955
198	154.65	153.6721	151.5321	155.8423	0.1886	0.196	0.9712	0.9432
199	154.81	154.1538	151.855	156.4874	0.2908	0.3384	0.9856	0.9697
200	154.92	154.1568	151.7155	156.6374	0.2732	0.3029	0.9693	0.9614
201	155.4	154.1961	151.6197	156.8162	0.1839	0.2941	0.9773	0.9557
202	155.63	154.3231	151.6169	157.0777	0.1762	0.2218	0.9659	0.9564
203	155.76	154.5902	151.7572	157.4759	0.2134	0.24	0.9651	0.9651

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
192	0.0024	0.001	0	0.0244	0	0
193	0.0037	0.0017	0.0014	0.0664	0.0454	0.2131
194	0.0046	0.0023	0.0017	0.1285	0.0731	0.2704
195	0.0054	0.0041	0.0023	0.3981	0.1544	0.3929
196	0.006	0.0043	0.0027	0.4374	0.211	0.4593
197	0.0066	0.0063	0.0033	0.9387	0.3323	0.5764
198	0.0072	0.0064	0.0037	0.9563	0.4214	0.6492
199	0.0077	0.0043	0.0038	0.4305	0.4226	0.65
200	0.0082	0.005	0.0039	0.5825	0.4403	0.6636
201	0.0087	0.0078	0.0043	1.4495	0.5412	0.7357
202	0.0091	0.0085	0.0047	1.7079	0.6473	0.8045
203	0.0095	0.0076	0.0049	1.3685	0.7074	0.8411