Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
O[t] = -0.578264633807969 + 0.925535412411281B[t] + 0.0132183880731054CM[t] + 0.0160035232163488CM_B[t] -1.31048736184262D[t] + 1.32524772719413D_B[t] + 0.406327339245114PE[t] -0.394585656390907PE_B[t] -0.341990685460128PC[t] + 0.363464570658177PC_B[t] + 0.942105175460255PS[t] + 0.0146495184249106PS_B[t] + e[t] |
Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
(Intercept) | -0.578264633807969 | 1.018728 | -0.5676 | 0.57115 | 0.285575 |
B | 0.925535412411281 | 0.026458 | 34.9813 | 0 | 0 |
CM | 0.0132183880731054 | 0.08117 | 0.1628 | 0.870862 | 0.435431 |
CM_B | 0.0160035232163488 | 0.079044 | 0.2025 | 0.839834 | 0.419917 |
D | -1.31048736184262 | 0.218181 | -6.0064 | 0 | 0 |
D_B | 1.32524772719413 | 0.221044 | 5.9954 | 0 | 0 |
PE | 0.406327339245114 | 0.143549 | 2.8306 | 0.005297 | 0.002649 |
PE_B | -0.394585656390907 | 0.151846 | -2.5986 | 0.010314 | 0.005157 |
PC | -0.341990685460128 | 0.108022 | -3.1659 | 0.00188 | 0.00094 |
PC_B | 0.363464570658177 | 0.109279 | 3.326 | 0.001113 | 0.000556 |
PS | 0.942105175460255 | 0.048185 | 19.5519 | 0 | 0 |
PS_B | 0.0146495184249106 | 0.030566 | 0.4793 | 0.632459 | 0.316229 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
Multiple R | 0.986054290328691 |
R-squared | 0.972303063475619 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.970230503599645 |
F-TEST (value) | 469.131471059976 |
F-TEST (DF numerator) | 11 |
F-TEST (DF denominator) | 147 |
p-value | 0 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
Residual Standard Deviation | 1.43270045551945 |
Sum Squared Residuals | 301.736697501107 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
1 | 26 | 24.6041995514881 | 1.39580044851188 |
2 | 23 | 25.4130327883993 | -2.41303278839934 |
3 | 25 | 24.2183183396727 | 0.781681660327342 |
4 | 23 | 19.5179366599762 | 3.48206334002384 |
5 | 20 | 22.3741165311321 | -2.37411653113210 |
6 | 29 | 22.2387016296813 | 6.76129837031869 |
7 | 20 | 20.2205856699302 | -0.220585669930168 |
8 | 16 | 16.6015594595828 | -0.601559459582765 |
9 | 18 | 18.4816387188737 | -0.481638718873727 |
10 | 17 | 17.4960001377340 | -0.496000137733962 |
11 | 23 | 23.0502803334575 | -0.0502803334575189 |
12 | 30 | 29.5644417477413 | 0.435558252258726 |
13 | 23 | 22.7065622191804 | 0.293437780819597 |
14 | 18 | 18.2815495853943 | -0.281549585394319 |
15 | 15 | 15.7286961091583 | -0.728696109158334 |
16 | 12 | 12.7283106162804 | -0.728310616280424 |
17 | 21 | 20.9498195332017 | 0.0501804667983168 |
18 | 15 | 15.3891673348079 | -0.389167334807897 |
19 | 20 | 20.2068579140039 | -0.206857914003871 |
20 | 31 | 30.6461690533045 | 0.353830946695543 |
21 | 27 | 26.8465542387064 | 0.153445761293572 |
22 | 34 | 33.4530317080726 | 0.546968291927387 |
23 | 21 | 21.1673111384559 | -0.167311138455917 |
24 | 31 | 30.5027986502654 | 0.497201349734577 |
25 | 19 | 19.3078180295097 | -0.307818029509666 |
26 | 16 | 16.5787508582618 | -0.578750858261846 |
27 | 20 | 20.3178371410299 | -0.317837141029892 |
28 | 21 | 21.1055840416876 | -0.105584041687579 |
29 | 22 | 22.1827699761436 | -0.18276997614362 |
30 | 17 | 17.5205361096234 | -0.520536109623447 |
31 | 24 | 23.9606385098554 | 0.0393614901445721 |
32 | 25 | 25.2453422813576 | -0.245342281357642 |
33 | 26 | 26.0625779104939 | -0.0625779104938919 |
34 | 25 | 24.9901215197081 | 0.00987848029186378 |
35 | 17 | 17.6352757199115 | -0.63527571991151 |
36 | 32 | 31.5968497808248 | 0.403150219175241 |
37 | 33 | 32.3548017515907 | 0.645198248409278 |
38 | 13 | 12.8444245603739 | 0.155575439626085 |
39 | 0 | 2.18794968435403 | -2.18794968435403 |
40 | 25 | 25.174433175096 | -0.174433175095998 |
41 | 29 | 28.8918376034232 | 0.108162396576839 |
42 | 22 | 22.0868260200892 | -0.0868260200891923 |
43 | 18 | 18.2686093376018 | -0.268609337601756 |
44 | 17 | 17.5296000678684 | -0.52960006786844 |
45 | 20 | 20.3328639948932 | -0.332863994893188 |
46 | 15 | 15.634898291154 | -0.634898291154002 |
47 | 20 | 20.3458358671561 | -0.345835867156142 |
48 | 33 | 32.5430125446762 | 0.456987455323814 |
49 | 29 | 28.6121314784000 | 0.387868521599974 |
50 | 23 | 23.2818153482682 | -0.281815348268217 |
51 | 26 | 25.8615682049042 | 0.138431795095830 |
52 | 18 | 18.4186711187687 | -0.418671118768676 |
53 | 20 | 20.1016957485837 | -0.101695748583713 |
54 | 11 | 11.4706891159079 | -0.470689115907915 |
55 | 28 | 28.1707423952679 | -0.170742395267933 |
56 | 26 | 25.9896142003860 | 0.0103857996140364 |
57 | 22 | 22.1695069951440 | -0.169506995144029 |
58 | 17 | 17.5343728156567 | -0.534372815656687 |
59 | 12 | 12.5319259276468 | -0.53192592764685 |
60 | 14 | 14.7123555505507 | -0.712355550550716 |
61 | 17 | 17.5107009711061 | -0.510700971106108 |
62 | 21 | 20.3380927470690 | 0.661907252931049 |
63 | 0 | -5.25108566558226 | 5.25108566558226 |
64 | 18 | 18.4794330488443 | -0.479433048844267 |
65 | 10 | 10.9799755833075 | -0.979975583307487 |
66 | 29 | 28.7346391115354 | 0.265360888464638 |
67 | 31 | 30.325576459698 | 0.674423540301971 |
68 | 19 | 19.4438616524450 | -0.443861652445022 |
69 | 9 | 9.12373445468246 | -0.123734454682457 |
70 | 0 | -0.37226893878106 | 0.37226893878106 |
71 | 28 | 27.5383401714152 | 0.461659828584786 |
72 | 19 | 19.2588847154214 | -0.258884715421409 |
73 | 30 | 29.6367145656765 | 0.3632854343235 |
74 | 29 | 28.8976785788225 | 0.102321421177502 |
75 | 26 | 25.8271010602228 | 0.172898939777162 |
76 | 23 | 23.0101476516417 | -0.010147651641749 |
77 | 13 | 13.869782539103 | -0.869782539102994 |
78 | 21 | 21.3603289070511 | -0.360328907051055 |
79 | 19 | 19.3574021941919 | -0.357402194191938 |
80 | 28 | 27.7949920874708 | 0.205007912529245 |
81 | 23 | 22.3451927968144 | 0.65480720318562 |
82 | 0 | 0.446493779711891 | -0.446493779711891 |
83 | 21 | 21.1961576111266 | -0.196157611126642 |
84 | 20 | 19.4521857063233 | 0.547814293676748 |
85 | 0 | 7.23771568007521 | -7.23771568007521 |
86 | 21 | 21.2209489982355 | -0.220948998235549 |
87 | 21 | 21.296532797793 | -0.296532797792993 |
88 | 15 | 15.6989440017742 | -0.698944001774219 |
89 | 28 | 26.9753740420348 | 1.02462595796523 |
90 | 0 | -0.262612919822329 | 0.262612919822329 |
91 | 26 | 25.8540910907174 | 0.145908909282642 |
92 | 10 | 9.75667480922528 | 0.243325190774718 |
93 | 0 | 0.0342085643549297 | -0.0342085643549297 |
94 | 22 | 22.1776567768225 | -0.17765677682249 |
95 | 19 | 19.3236304946870 | -0.323630494687044 |
96 | 31 | 30.8519275928890 | 0.148072407111044 |
97 | 31 | 30.5939006437243 | 0.406099356275668 |
98 | 29 | 28.7494305950021 | 0.250569404997940 |
99 | 19 | 19.1361975269074 | -0.136197526907408 |
100 | 22 | 21.9978267604862 | 0.00217323951376444 |
101 | 23 | 23.0837356952992 | -0.0837356952991858 |
102 | 15 | 15.3413957017525 | -0.341395701752491 |
103 | 20 | 20.2871768710127 | -0.287176871012683 |
104 | 18 | 18.4718631876671 | -0.471863187667068 |
105 | 23 | 22.0471579374471 | 0.95284206255289 |
106 | 0 | 5.73875916131579 | -5.73875916131579 |
107 | 21 | 20.8699276360379 | 0.130072363962140 |
108 | 24 | 23.8646329249258 | 0.135367075074194 |
109 | 25 | 24.0998567874755 | 0.900143212524538 |
110 | 0 | -1.85640375280188 | 1.85640375280188 |
111 | 13 | 13.5411151924826 | -0.541115192482635 |
112 | 28 | 27.5691937214214 | 0.430806278578554 |
113 | 21 | 20.1181711746810 | 0.881828825318958 |
114 | 0 | -7.15715228035646 | 7.15715228035646 |
115 | 9 | 10.0905632682401 | -1.09056326824014 |
116 | 16 | 16.3128204414968 | -0.312820441496799 |
117 | 19 | 19.2843924990371 | -0.284392499037124 |
118 | 17 | 17.4037431082757 | -0.403743108275679 |
119 | 25 | 24.901282449828 | 0.0987175501719826 |
120 | 20 | 19.9624893812134 | 0.0375106187865630 |
121 | 29 | 28.4688111245886 | 0.531188875411384 |
122 | 14 | 13.6033852267716 | 0.396614773228388 |
123 | 0 | -1.15007446225698 | 1.15007446225698 |
124 | 15 | 15.4353749719552 | -0.435374971955153 |
125 | 19 | 19.4786690485831 | -0.47866904858306 |
126 | 20 | 19.4012843437678 | 0.598715656232225 |
127 | 0 | -4.26985303011458 | 4.26985303011458 |
128 | 20 | 20.3485480195630 | -0.348548019562961 |
129 | 18 | 18.4452068883406 | -0.445206888340618 |
130 | 33 | 32.3939257377748 | 0.60607426222523 |
131 | 22 | 22.1911170315266 | -0.191117031526603 |
132 | 16 | 16.4309318311061 | -0.430931831106054 |
133 | 17 | 17.4128504707148 | -0.412850470714811 |
134 | 16 | 16.3094613074666 | -0.309461307466617 |
135 | 21 | 21.0292327307523 | -0.0292327307522631 |
136 | 26 | 26.0715816303282 | -0.0715816303281492 |
137 | 18 | 18.2493848514483 | -0.249384851448318 |
138 | 18 | 18.4742408271431 | -0.474240827143107 |
139 | 17 | 17.2852117383983 | -0.285211738398313 |
140 | 22 | 22.1127894550919 | -0.112789455091947 |
141 | 30 | 28.6516116953374 | 1.34838830466263 |
142 | 0 | 2.92325184158514 | -2.92325184158514 |
143 | 24 | 24.3774196544525 | -0.377419654452548 |
144 | 21 | 21.1736848378696 | -0.173684837869621 |
145 | 21 | 21.4055415731769 | -0.405541573176937 |
146 | 29 | 28.7628679486231 | 0.2371320513769 |
147 | 31 | 29.5627692076597 | 1.43723079234029 |
148 | 0 | 0.431084021843937 | -0.431084021843937 |
149 | 16 | 16.2259330922225 | -0.225933092222508 |
150 | 22 | 22.0352239577883 | -0.0352239577882592 |
151 | 20 | 20.2570507908056 | -0.257050790805632 |
152 | 28 | 28.0166912573327 | -0.0166912573327274 |
153 | 38 | 37.0463235816683 | 0.953676418331654 |
154 | 22 | 21.966706215613 | 0.0332937843869896 |
155 | 20 | 20.466852129873 | -0.466852129873005 |
156 | 17 | 17.3828668619047 | -0.382866861904748 |
157 | 28 | 27.7818989790219 | 0.218101020978084 |
158 | 22 | 22.2097426131333 | -0.209742613133305 |
159 | 31 | 30.7372463017937 | 0.262753698206324 |
Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
15 | 0.931890324775148 | 0.136219350449705 | 0.0681096752248525 |
16 | 0.996805081921695 | 0.0063898361566104 | 0.0031949180783052 |
17 | 0.992876311439192 | 0.0142473771216159 | 0.00712368856080793 |
18 | 0.985384367544231 | 0.0292312649115373 | 0.0146156324557687 |
19 | 0.983095289663175 | 0.0338094206736501 | 0.0169047103368250 |
20 | 0.97085633205466 | 0.0582873358906796 | 0.0291436679453398 |
21 | 0.963207522126937 | 0.0735849557461259 | 0.0367924778730630 |
22 | 0.942149601773135 | 0.115700796453731 | 0.0578503982268655 |
23 | 0.912732285381901 | 0.174535429236198 | 0.087267714618099 |
24 | 0.965010013242333 | 0.0699799735153345 | 0.0349899867576673 |
25 | 0.94760064853572 | 0.104798702928561 | 0.0523993514642806 |
26 | 0.924726268691785 | 0.150547462616429 | 0.0752737313082147 |
27 | 0.895200219936103 | 0.209599560127793 | 0.104799780063897 |
28 | 0.858080979736357 | 0.283838040527287 | 0.141919020263643 |
29 | 0.813311838739202 | 0.373376322521597 | 0.186688161260798 |
30 | 0.7697783746988 | 0.460443250602399 | 0.230221625301199 |
31 | 0.762113147402695 | 0.475773705194609 | 0.237886852597305 |
32 | 0.722634649881768 | 0.554730700236463 | 0.277365350118232 |
33 | 0.663850487204165 | 0.67229902559167 | 0.336149512795835 |
34 | 0.620709085408414 | 0.758581829183172 | 0.379290914591586 |
35 | 0.560556487990152 | 0.878887024019696 | 0.439443512009848 |
36 | 0.513812575763891 | 0.972374848472218 | 0.486187424236109 |
37 | 0.470394142827484 | 0.94078828565497 | 0.529605857172516 |
38 | 0.413657578173373 | 0.827315156346747 | 0.586342421826627 |
39 | 0.598974369708282 | 0.802051260583435 | 0.401025630291718 |
40 | 0.554492920001726 | 0.891014159996548 | 0.445507079998274 |
41 | 0.495662276774661 | 0.991324553549321 | 0.504337723225339 |
42 | 0.43930558874277 | 0.87861117748554 | 0.56069441125723 |
43 | 0.385478527407006 | 0.770957054814012 | 0.614521472592994 |
44 | 0.336057625432361 | 0.672115250864723 | 0.663942374567638 |
45 | 0.28756728351969 | 0.57513456703938 | 0.71243271648031 |
46 | 0.242217504440554 | 0.484435008881109 | 0.757782495559446 |
47 | 0.201131976603972 | 0.402263953207944 | 0.798868023396028 |
48 | 0.167170787342460 | 0.334341574684920 | 0.83282921265754 |
49 | 0.136007451573169 | 0.272014903146338 | 0.863992548426831 |
50 | 0.110051711244625 | 0.220103422489251 | 0.889948288755375 |
51 | 0.0863358334372093 | 0.172671666874419 | 0.91366416656279 |
52 | 0.0676583074721679 | 0.135316614944336 | 0.932341692527832 |
53 | 0.0529175410391101 | 0.105835082078220 | 0.94708245896089 |
54 | 0.0398030850049678 | 0.0796061700099357 | 0.960196914995032 |
55 | 0.0304749236788783 | 0.0609498473577567 | 0.969525076321122 |
56 | 0.0224820192074435 | 0.044964038414887 | 0.977517980792556 |
57 | 0.0161687035770375 | 0.0323374071540749 | 0.983831296422963 |
58 | 0.0117099067954443 | 0.0234198135908886 | 0.988290093204556 |
59 | 0.00829445004929689 | 0.0165889000985938 | 0.991705549950703 |
60 | 0.00599323754579779 | 0.0119864750915956 | 0.994006762454202 |
61 | 0.00411199622777645 | 0.0082239924555529 | 0.995888003772224 |
62 | 0.00440994293701585 | 0.0088198858740317 | 0.995590057062984 |
63 | 0.0113828213699638 | 0.0227656427399276 | 0.988617178630036 |
64 | 0.0080651253522124 | 0.0161302507044248 | 0.991934874647788 |
65 | 0.00598443901853486 | 0.0119688780370697 | 0.994015560981465 |
66 | 0.00420360259308408 | 0.00840720518616816 | 0.995796397406916 |
67 | 0.00307682744066831 | 0.00615365488133662 | 0.996923172559332 |
68 | 0.0021003958185277 | 0.0042007916370554 | 0.997899604181472 |
69 | 0.00184308630197766 | 0.00368617260395532 | 0.998156913698022 |
70 | 0.0857341924375482 | 0.171468384875096 | 0.914265807562452 |
71 | 0.0704593620542214 | 0.140918724108443 | 0.929540637945779 |
72 | 0.055587751999073 | 0.111175503998146 | 0.944412248000927 |
73 | 0.0434785609220826 | 0.0869571218441652 | 0.956521439077917 |
74 | 0.0332179696396098 | 0.0664359392792195 | 0.96678203036039 |
75 | 0.0251676357556351 | 0.0503352715112702 | 0.974832364244365 |
76 | 0.0188414936432211 | 0.0376829872864422 | 0.98115850635678 |
77 | 0.0153803488780289 | 0.0307606977560578 | 0.98461965112197 |
78 | 0.0115565990717314 | 0.0231131981434629 | 0.988443400928269 |
79 | 0.00836004005565155 | 0.0167200801113031 | 0.991639959944348 |
80 | 0.0060007309433662 | 0.0120014618867324 | 0.993999269056634 |
81 | 0.00569693894171976 | 0.0113938778834395 | 0.99430306105828 |
82 | 0.0193095068878416 | 0.0386190137756832 | 0.980690493112159 |
83 | 0.0143201485575354 | 0.0286402971150708 | 0.985679851442465 |
84 | 0.0133472797826582 | 0.0266945595653163 | 0.986652720217342 |
85 | 0.969588942760993 | 0.060822114478013 | 0.0304110572390065 |
86 | 0.960508884068098 | 0.0789822318638042 | 0.0394911159319021 |
87 | 0.9512000026986 | 0.0975999946028014 | 0.0487999973014007 |
88 | 0.939805350546436 | 0.120389298907128 | 0.0601946494535639 |
89 | 0.927099247634887 | 0.145801504730226 | 0.0729007523651132 |
90 | 0.935662044259216 | 0.128675911481569 | 0.0643379557407845 |
91 | 0.918652260359559 | 0.162695479280883 | 0.0813477396404414 |
92 | 0.903973950830475 | 0.192052098339049 | 0.0960260491695246 |
93 | 0.92519204022013 | 0.149615919559741 | 0.0748079597798703 |
94 | 0.909344025117669 | 0.181311949764662 | 0.090655974882331 |
95 | 0.88845986458147 | 0.223080270837058 | 0.111540135418529 |
96 | 0.862500288799538 | 0.274999422400924 | 0.137499711200462 |
97 | 0.833935874719891 | 0.332128250560217 | 0.166064125280109 |
98 | 0.8014632964056 | 0.397073407188798 | 0.198536703594399 |
99 | 0.764136060724023 | 0.471727878551954 | 0.235863939275977 |
100 | 0.722561571165964 | 0.554876857668072 | 0.277438428834036 |
101 | 0.677870534591828 | 0.644258930816345 | 0.322129465408172 |
102 | 0.633106556527079 | 0.733786886945843 | 0.366893443472921 |
103 | 0.584624927846856 | 0.830750144306287 | 0.415375072153143 |
104 | 0.549708908710689 | 0.900582182578622 | 0.450291091289311 |
105 | 0.509341852295822 | 0.981316295408356 | 0.490658147704178 |
106 | 0.999533615326094 | 0.000932769347812665 | 0.000466384673906333 |
107 | 0.999336540552618 | 0.00132691889476325 | 0.000663459447381625 |
108 | 0.998921075126882 | 0.002157849746236 | 0.001078924873118 |
109 | 0.998317423490455 | 0.00336515301908946 | 0.00168257650954473 |
110 | 0.999676731032704 | 0.000646537934592825 | 0.000323268967296413 |
111 | 0.999455626054086 | 0.00108874789182888 | 0.000544373945914438 |
112 | 0.999142714328052 | 0.00171457134389676 | 0.00085728567194838 |
113 | 0.998775299868177 | 0.00244940026364506 | 0.00122470013182253 |
114 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
115 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
116 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
117 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
118 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
119 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
120 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
121 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
122 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
123 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
124 | 1 | 2.29027722876273e-314 | 1.14513861438137e-314 |
125 | 1 | 2.19100778923149e-298 | 1.09550389461574e-298 |
126 | 1 | 2.86460374522558e-294 | 1.43230187261279e-294 |
127 | 1 | 1.57053833308214e-271 | 7.85269166541068e-272 |
128 | 1 | 5.08887628966546e-253 | 2.54443814483273e-253 |
129 | 1 | 1.92395357690118e-247 | 9.61976788450588e-248 |
130 | 1 | 3.04916765780649e-231 | 1.52458382890324e-231 |
131 | 1 | 5.81868681185882e-221 | 2.90934340592941e-221 |
132 | 1 | 5.49809410317547e-203 | 2.74904705158774e-203 |
133 | 1 | 2.46216708404559e-192 | 1.23108354202280e-192 |
134 | 1 | 9.46371938403483e-175 | 4.73185969201742e-175 |
135 | 1 | 1.01279277441768e-163 | 5.06396387208839e-164 |
136 | 1 | 2.02976563452989e-151 | 1.01488281726494e-151 |
137 | 1 | 7.76901729438546e-137 | 3.88450864719273e-137 |
138 | 1 | 1.17106859273505e-124 | 5.85534296367523e-125 |
139 | 1 | 3.26959676519298e-111 | 1.63479838259649e-111 |
140 | 1 | 3.38936234798622e-95 | 1.69468117399311e-95 |
141 | 1 | 4.7380306538587e-82 | 2.36901532692935e-82 |
142 | 1 | 3.33581610477523e-72 | 1.66790805238761e-72 |
143 | 1 | 5.27979005315606e-57 | 2.63989502657803e-57 |
144 | 1 | 6.40295872702784e-43 | 3.20147936351392e-43 |
Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
1% type I error level | 46 | 0.353846153846154 | NOK |
5% type I error level | 66 | 0.507692307692308 | NOK |
10% type I error level | 77 | 0.592307692307692 | NOK |