| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 675953.3519 | 480082.8736 | 871823.8303 | 0.4714 | 0.04 | 0.6838 | 0.04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 921064.1321 | 717084.8583 | 1125043.4058 | 0.239 | 0.9889 | 0.3769 | 0.7501 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1136238.3663 | 931588.5304 | 1340888.2023 | 0.2732 | 0.9972 | 0.4086 | 0.9969 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1473545.7633 | 1268839.3579 | 1678252.1688 | 0.3481 | 0.9999 | 0.7575 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1589155.7914 | 1384444.6059 | 1793866.9768 | 0.2067 | 0.7631 | 0.2442 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1492516.9779 | 1287805.3885 | 1697228.5673 | 0.4422 | 0.4572 | 0.4892 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2903665.8158 | 2698954.1922 | 3108377.4394 | 0.3581 | 1 | 0.4424 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2734510.0032 | 2529798.3768 | 2939221.6297 | 0.3038 | 0.1045 | 0.3467 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1405930.1225 | 1201218.4958 | 1610641.7493 | 0.4454 | 0 | 0.4958 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359421.0142 | 1154709.3874 | 1564132.6409 | 0.4734 | 0.379 | 0.4589 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 952983.8376 | 748272.2109 | 1157695.4644 | 0.4745 | 0 | 0.456 | 0.8359 |
| 72 | 859626 | 859970.0939 | 655258.4672 | 1064681.7206 | 0.4987 | 0.2043 | 0.5348 | 0.5348 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1478 | 0.0106 | 0 | 51332182.0225 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.113 | -0.0802 | 0.0454 | 5452365105.1179 | 2751848643.5702 | 52458.0656 |
| 63 | 0.0919 | -0.0554 | 0.0487 | 3966778469.8416 | 3156825252.3273 | 56185.6321 |
| 64 | 0.0709 | 0.0277 | 0.0435 | 1663027702.7038 | 2783375864.9215 | 52757.7091 |
| 65 | 0.0657 | -0.0538 | 0.0455 | 7296882437.8987 | 3686077179.5169 | 60713.0726 |
| 66 | 0.07 | 0.0102 | 0.0396 | 230888696.7694 | 3110212432.3923 | 55769.2786 |
| 67 | 0.036 | -0.0131 | 0.0358 | 1441555035.141 | 2871832804.2136 | 53589.4841 |
| 68 | 0.0382 | 0.0196 | 0.0338 | 2874889577.4075 | 2872214900.8628 | 53593.049 |
| 69 | 0.0743 | -0.0102 | 0.0312 | 205467069.2342 | 2575909586.2374 | 50753.4195 |
| 70 | 0.0768 | 0.0051 | 0.0286 | 48399651.8213 | 2323158592.7958 | 48199.1555 |
| 71 | 0.1096 | -0.007 | 0.0266 | 44740548.8192 | 2116029679.707 | 46000.3226 |
| 72 | 0.1215 | -4e-04 | 0.0244 | 118400.6058 | 1939703739.7819 | 44042.0678 |
