| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.853661782423506 |
| beta | 0.00329071622036451 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 74 | 80.240411948487 | -6.24041194848706 |
| 14 | 67 | 67.632330326825 | -0.632330326824984 |
| 15 | 66 | 65.933156926383 | 0.0668430736170222 |
| 16 | 58 | 57.5982141158911 | 0.401785884108882 |
| 17 | 55 | 54.2994049601402 | 0.700595039859763 |
| 18 | 58 | 56.8974964663567 | 1.10250353364327 |
| 19 | 64 | 64.0993687803489 | -0.0993687803488683 |
| 20 | 68 | 65.613765208217 | 2.38623479178297 |
| 21 | 66 | 68.6120576315391 | -2.6120576315391 |
| 22 | 76 | 66.6105113770921 | 9.38948862290788 |
| 23 | 75 | 76.3382818181108 | -1.33828181811079 |
| 24 | 88 | 77.7949401853773 | 10.2050598146227 |
| 25 | 85 | 83.4641937638682 | 1.53580623613183 |
| 26 | 83 | 77.5192595660054 | 5.48074043399458 |
| 27 | 77 | 81.1128249630908 | -4.11282496309083 |
| 28 | 66 | 67.940679940157 | -1.94067994015697 |
| 29 | 65 | 62.2884206493315 | 2.71157935066854 |
| 30 | 65 | 67.1641148449105 | -2.16411484491054 |
| 31 | 63 | 72.2921996125122 | -9.29219961251218 |
| 32 | 62 | 66.3506539610196 | -4.35065396101965 |
| 33 | 57 | 62.7932770504556 | -5.79327705045564 |
| 34 | 68 | 59.3743307284742 | 8.62566927152582 |
| 35 | 69 | 66.7775677006701 | 2.22243229932992 |
| 36 | 79 | 72.4109737723475 | 6.58902622765245 |
| 37 | 74 | 74.133741985889 | -0.133741985889046 |
| 38 | 76 | 68.080486284877 | 7.91951371512306 |
| 39 | 82 | 72.5157337133069 | 9.4842662866931 |
| 40 | 75 | 70.8758988708582 | 4.12410112914178 |
| 41 | 75 | 70.7485461494082 | 4.25145385059177 |
| 42 | 76 | 76.6013714626525 | -0.601371462652509 |
| 43 | 78 | 82.9872341082717 | -4.98723410827175 |
| 44 | 77 | 82.2958932680294 | -5.29589326802939 |
| 45 | 67 | 77.8421144404391 | -10.8421144404391 |
| 46 | 74 | 72.9929300807638 | 1.00706991923616 |
| 47 | 68 | 72.96481777294 | -4.96481777294001 |
| 48 | 87 | 73.0358018133258 | 13.9641981866742 |
| 49 | 76 | 79.7902153235534 | -3.79021532355343 |
| 50 | 88 | 71.5708447577251 | 16.4291552422749 |
| 51 | 95 | 83.1985295593372 | 11.8014704406628 |
| 52 | 96 | 81.3869300133229 | 14.6130699866771 |
| 53 | 96 | 89.4650022378298 | 6.53499776217018 |
| 54 | 105 | 97.159000803315 | 7.840999196685 |
| 55 | 108 | 112.637161530114 | -4.63716153011377 |
| 56 | 113 | 113.843811412907 | -0.843811412907115 |
| 57 | 101 | 112.092463834908 | -11.0924638349082 |
| 58 | 107 | 112.4920597365 | -5.4920597365 |
| 59 | 102 | 105.567425895142 | -3.56742589514207 |
| 60 | 116 | 113.246851925026 | 2.75314807497436 |
| 61 | 105 | 105.542226559521 | -0.542226559521424 |
| 62 | 121 | 102.063570859471 | 18.9364291405286 |
| 63 | 134 | 114.134263135505 | 19.8657368644951 |
| 64 | 140 | 115.143217379642 | 24.8567826203578 |
| 65 | 131 | 128.645488103100 | 2.35451189690014 |
| 66 | 141 | 133.947840405514 | 7.05215959448597 |
| 67 | 131 | 149.461821142014 | -18.4618211420136 |
| 68 | 128 | 140.975067209160 | -12.9750672091596 |
| 69 | 123 | 126.940551140281 | -3.94055114028126 |
| 70 | 129 | 136.807948893198 | -7.80794889319833 |
| 71 | 125 | 127.933651460175 | -2.93365146017474 |
| 72 | 144 | 139.965838476658 | 4.03416152334179 |
| 73 | 135 | 130.588732565777 | 4.41126743422339 |
| 74 | 141 | 133.898933040652 | 7.10106695934772 |
| 75 | 156 | 135.082653727691 | 20.9173462723091 |
| 76 | 159 | 135.031675942176 | 23.968324057824 |
| 77 | 146 | 143.338992827662 | 2.66100717233786 |
| 78 | 154 | 150.068516765705 | 3.93148323429509 |
| 79 | 145 | 159.416466608536 | -14.4164666085359 |
| 80 | 133 | 156.097421860839 | -23.0974218608394 |
| 81 | 126 | 134.677514939105 | -8.67751493910461 |
| 82 | 127 | 140.353222925781 | -13.3532229257807 |
| 83 | 122 | 127.461348104025 | -5.46134810402451 |
| 84 | 148 | 138.064666867936 | 9.93533313206424 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 133.561981257641 | 115.204119823497 | 151.919842691785 |
| 86 | 133.459104619344 | 109.269193710852 | 157.649015527836 |
| 87 | 130.386347762239 | 101.857488712259 | 158.915206812219 |
| 88 | 115.302111327558 | 85.1568190588556 | 145.447403596261 |
| 89 | 104.059160926535 | 72.2682384314985 | 135.850083421571 |
| 90 | 107.183074713933 | 70.797189837427 | 143.568959590438 |
| 91 | 109.170517656469 | 68.7855548293011 | 149.555480483636 |
| 92 | 114.452346313391 | 69.1826047770838 | 159.722087849698 |
| 93 | 114.654033344408 | 66.4320877355408 | 162.875978953275 |
| 94 | 125.723730040039 | 70.4490874561326 | 180.998372623946 |
| 95 | 125.365066058023 | 67.7519959965753 | 182.978136119471 |
| 96 | 143.320112510630 | 48.2934173403048 | 238.346807680956 |
