| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.635975324827265 |
| beta | 0.008138384857576 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 90 | 87.0365918803419 | 2.9634081196581 |
| 14 | 90 | 89.2796787706 | 0.720321229399957 |
| 15 | 89 | 88.9332793277732 | 0.0667206722267792 |
| 16 | 82 | 82.0465513919437 | -0.046551391943737 |
| 17 | 78 | 77.8375442770587 | 0.162455722941317 |
| 18 | 76 | 75.1789680368932 | 0.821031963106776 |
| 19 | 74 | 80.0268128753726 | -6.0268128753726 |
| 20 | 78 | 77.7384037182123 | 0.261596281787732 |
| 21 | 81 | 78.4089549239193 | 2.59104507608068 |
| 22 | 82 | 79.7827221786551 | 2.21727782134488 |
| 23 | 88 | 82.2219255618689 | 5.77807443813114 |
| 24 | 99 | 88.0806139568314 | 10.9193860431686 |
| 25 | 117 | 106.510986703481 | 10.4890132965191 |
| 26 | 113 | 112.868316175076 | 0.131683824924238 |
| 27 | 106 | 112.051266821771 | -6.05126682177128 |
| 28 | 100 | 101.342386107546 | -1.34238610754639 |
| 29 | 97 | 96.4886069705327 | 0.511393029467314 |
| 30 | 96 | 94.3967534179586 | 1.60324658204138 |
| 31 | 100 | 97.35840072444 | 2.64159927555993 |
| 32 | 104 | 103.026007737323 | 0.973992262677044 |
| 33 | 104 | 105.155273112518 | -1.15527311251789 |
| 34 | 111 | 104.148694761859 | 6.85130523814149 |
| 35 | 117 | 110.993508748006 | 6.00649125199371 |
| 36 | 118 | 119.032476809319 | -1.03247680931877 |
| 37 | 140 | 129.806680724120 | 10.1933192758804 |
| 38 | 147 | 132.305689469044 | 14.6943105309564 |
| 39 | 134 | 138.67479505276 | -4.67479505275992 |
| 40 | 126 | 130.738019838492 | -4.73801983849214 |
| 41 | 116 | 124.564502270107 | -8.56450227010698 |
| 42 | 114 | 117.216069249189 | -3.21606924918862 |
| 43 | 120 | 117.583797092034 | 2.41620290796637 |
| 44 | 122 | 122.592901352030 | -0.592901352029642 |
| 45 | 117 | 123.034339844768 | -6.03433984476798 |
| 46 | 119 | 121.897918325330 | -2.89791832532987 |
| 47 | 132 | 122.243004201915 | 9.75699579808528 |
| 48 | 134 | 130.132325104302 | 3.86767489569758 |
| 49 | 154 | 148.162216184821 | 5.83778381517891 |
| 50 | 152 | 149.559985117360 | 2.44001488264047 |
| 51 | 132 | 141.051704134660 | -9.05170413465979 |
| 52 | 130 | 130.252528762407 | -0.252528762407167 |
| 53 | 123 | 125.506176271455 | -2.50617627145536 |
| 54 | 129 | 123.956444902216 | 5.04355509778377 |
| 55 | 124 | 131.668920540651 | -7.66892054065073 |
| 56 | 128 | 129.158092712267 | -1.15809271226669 |
| 57 | 128 | 127.245686015682 | 0.754313984317804 |
| 58 | 129 | 131.589972890176 | -2.58997289017583 |
| 59 | 141 | 136.760756580712 | 4.23924341928804 |
| 60 | 138 | 138.991657257165 | -0.991657257165173 |
| 61 | 155 | 154.617742527317 | 0.382257472682511 |
| 62 | 160 | 151.250264086173 | 8.74973591382664 |
| 63 | 142 | 142.545403129008 | -0.545403129007838 |
| 64 | 133 | 140.377031698605 | -7.37703169860461 |
| 65 | 131 | 130.260302188707 | 0.739697811293041 |
| 66 | 140 | 133.520969539368 | 6.47903046063232 |
| 67 | 134 | 137.523961410038 | -3.52396141003754 |
| 68 | 134 | 140.046024962477 | -6.04602496247716 |
| 69 | 134 | 135.722575839689 | -1.72257583968891 |
| 70 | 136 | 137.262797692503 | -1.26279769250345 |
| 71 | 145 | 145.759083250348 | -0.759083250348198 |
| 72 | 137 | 142.876572122086 | -5.87657212208572 |
| 73 | 152 | 155.840405078971 | -3.8404050789712 |
| 74 | 168 | 152.755824505602 | 15.2441754943977 |
| 75 | 160 | 144.753659331667 | 15.2463406683333 |
| 76 | 157 | 150.179353449887 | 6.82064655011268 |
| 77 | 147 | 152.157958840575 | -5.15795884057499 |
| 78 | 161 | 153.837867669192 | 7.16213233080845 |
| 79 | 159 | 154.718242093449 | 4.28175790655095 |
| 80 | 164 | 161.411140579956 | 2.58885942004358 |
| 81 | 163 | 164.322482979171 | -1.32248297917127 |
| 82 | 158 | 166.45597137444 | -8.45597137443994 |
| 83 | 175 | 170.695156700081 | 4.30484329991936 |
| 84 | 163 | 169.330711862381 | -6.33071186238058 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 182.905013837075 | 171.820819075086 | 193.989208599064 |
| 86 | 189.388047230008 | 176.221279840589 | 202.554814619426 |
| 87 | 171.79080264 | 156.801244376908 | 186.780360903092 |
| 88 | 164.473179411447 | 147.834813013414 | 181.111545809480 |
| 89 | 157.738351253270 | 139.577528461572 | 175.899174044969 |
| 90 | 167.194945735493 | 147.608364009266 | 186.781527461721 |
| 91 | 162.446317427679 | 141.510751595773 | 183.381883259585 |
| 92 | 165.752169210966 | 143.530259617282 | 187.974078804650 |
| 93 | 165.532138797572 | 142.076077445583 | 188.988200149562 |
| 94 | 165.855675906723 | 141.209679401325 | 190.501672412121 |
| 95 | 180.107416276005 | 154.309454392476 | 205.905378159534 |
| 96 | 172.100826234940 | 145.183871029814 | 199.017781440066 |
