| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.738004770331473 |
| beta | 0.00040330803731264 |
| gamma | 0.993056849962919 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 236 | 242.919871794872 | -6.91987179487191 |
| 14 | 241 | 242.844421905514 | -1.84442190551403 |
| 15 | 240 | 240.597462599674 | -0.597462599673577 |
| 16 | 239 | 239.603920712573 | -0.603920712572801 |
| 17 | 253 | 253.522099621085 | -0.522099621084777 |
| 18 | 249 | 249.542174152664 | -0.542174152664415 |
| 19 | 232 | 236.047272209696 | -4.0472722096963 |
| 20 | 229 | 222.797719870216 | 6.20228012978382 |
| 21 | 221 | 227.864232117884 | -6.86423211788363 |
| 22 | 222 | 222.243886236117 | -0.243886236117390 |
| 23 | 224 | 222.717647938579 | 1.28235206142091 |
| 24 | 224 | 225.693162468729 | -1.69316246872879 |
| 25 | 215 | 212.880176802538 | 2.11982319746204 |
| 26 | 225 | 220.794387068484 | 4.20561293151567 |
| 27 | 225 | 223.336423244760 | 1.66357675523960 |
| 28 | 221 | 224.010143754598 | -3.01014375459798 |
| 29 | 238 | 236.173375094842 | 1.82662490515762 |
| 30 | 234 | 233.921864316552 | 0.0781356834476696 |
| 31 | 228 | 219.973263378747 | 8.026736621253 |
| 32 | 227 | 218.305122375500 | 8.6948776245005 |
| 33 | 216 | 221.816376499747 | -5.81637649974658 |
| 34 | 219 | 218.696909085873 | 0.303090914127239 |
| 35 | 225 | 219.976696024572 | 5.02330397542829 |
| 36 | 227 | 224.945269119408 | 2.05473088059222 |
| 37 | 205 | 215.897786261591 | -10.8977862615910 |
| 38 | 215 | 214.751228481830 | 0.248771518170344 |
| 39 | 214 | 213.714158963002 | 0.285841036997965 |
| 40 | 209 | 212.157142571301 | -3.15714257130097 |
| 41 | 222 | 225.472285489058 | -3.47228548905818 |
| 42 | 216 | 218.855646691196 | -2.85564669119628 |
| 43 | 206 | 204.809471930610 | 1.19052806938979 |
| 44 | 199 | 198.267511128100 | 0.732488871900472 |
| 45 | 189 | 192.122132444236 | -3.12213244423609 |
| 46 | 198 | 192.579101849707 | 5.42089815029325 |
| 47 | 203 | 198.861397456291 | 4.13860254370923 |
| 48 | 211 | 202.401897024954 | 8.59810297504623 |
| 49 | 199 | 194.812657729491 | 4.18734227050911 |
| 50 | 211 | 207.702695208854 | 3.2973047911463 |
| 51 | 210 | 208.929639637437 | 1.07036036256309 |
| 52 | 203 | 207.060590756305 | -4.06059075630466 |
| 53 | 214 | 219.631493776482 | -5.63149377648202 |
| 54 | 202 | 211.585642847658 | -9.58564284765825 |
| 55 | 193 | 193.627273055343 | -0.627273055342613 |
| 56 | 193 | 185.625910450993 | 7.37408954900675 |
| 57 | 176 | 183.382475992651 | -7.38247599265094 |
| 58 | 192 | 182.920008152688 | 9.07999184731176 |
| 59 | 200 | 191.572222466877 | 8.42777753312319 |
| 60 | 195 | 199.442798816816 | -4.4427988168157 |
| 61 | 180 | 181.082244973198 | -1.08224497319770 |
| 62 | 197 | 189.850674895864 | 7.14932510413558 |
| 63 | 194 | 193.341116872594 | 0.658883127405545 |
| 64 | 194 | 189.833408235382 | 4.16659176461792 |
| 65 | 212 | 208.069712008887 | 3.93028799111335 |
| 66 | 202 | 206.056984643891 | -4.05698464389053 |
| 67 | 195 | 194.516449095078 | 0.483550904921998 |
| 68 | 198 | 189.423878164407 | 8.57612183559323 |
| 69 | 170 | 184.235835039232 | -14.2358350392324 |
| 70 | 187 | 183.004249591043 | 3.99575040895664 |
| 71 | 190 | 187.738618001623 | 2.26138199837669 |
| 72 | 189 | 187.711951691381 | 1.28804830861864 |
| 73 | 176 | 174.459035857898 | 1.54096414210173 |
| 74 | 188 | 187.309755181968 | 0.690244818031886 |
| 75 | 195 | 184.347474628052 | 10.6525253719483 |
| 76 | 194 | 189.133486121603 | 4.86651387839723 |
| 77 | 211 | 207.830805799761 | 3.16919420023930 |
| 78 | 203 | 203.184013802688 | -0.184013802688412 |
| 79 | 194 | 195.689965184857 | -1.68996518485685 |
| 80 | 194 | 191.105052970836 | 2.89494702916429 |
| 81 | 163 | 175.793687440199 | -12.7936874401987 |
| 82 | 183 | 180.374805878861 | 2.62519412113912 |
| 83 | 181 | 183.651016198034 | -2.6510161980344 |
| 84 | 184 | 179.748836519265 | 4.25116348073493 |
| 85 | 171 | 168.752496592352 | 2.24750340764831 |
| 86 | 178 | 181.907498781423 | -3.90749878142293 |
| 87 | 179 | 178.146831306662 | 0.853168693337778 |
| 88 | 186 | 174.195393789328 | 11.8046062106716 |
| 89 | 205 | 197.573426871851 | 7.42657312814865 |
| 90 | 204 | 195.199413517400 | 8.80058648259953 |
| 91 | 195 | 193.950141789495 | 1.04985821050511 |
| 92 | 186 | 192.586844307124 | -6.58684430712441 |
| 93 | 156 | 166.199967869213 | -10.1999678692126 |
| 94 | 167 | 176.711566047109 | -9.71156604710868 |
| 95 | 164 | 169.511449397 | -5.51144939700015 |
| 96 | 165 | 165.294192582807 | -0.294192582807284 |
| 97 | 153 | 150.420854348426 | 2.57914565157353 |
| 98 | 160 | 162.218124716795 | -2.21812471679536 |
| 99 | 154 | 160.942237802094 | -6.9422378020939 |
| 100 | 169 | 154.0841380573 | 14.9158619426998 |
| 101 | 186 | 178.617240952035 | 7.38275904796515 |
| 102 | 188 | 176.566373136307 | 11.4336268636928 |
| 103 | 187 | 175.242521801349 | 11.7574781986509 |
| 104 | 169 | 179.796576813874 | -10.7965768138739 |
| 105 | 131 | 149.363561882391 | -18.3635618823906 |
| 106 | 146 | 153.975742189308 | -7.97574218930825 |
| 107 | 145 | 149.148241638383 | -4.1482416383835 |
| 108 | 137 | 147.293649833780 | -10.2936498337796 |
| 109 | 119 | 125.784467627682 | -6.7844676276823 |
| 110 | 118 | 129.416653420513 | -11.4166534205128 |
| 111 | 113 | 120.113811035301 | -7.1138110353006 |
| 112 | 123 | 118.806698942634 | 4.19330105736555 |
| 113 | 142 | 133.454028606123 | 8.54597139387727 |
| 114 | 141 | 133.303364113004 | 7.6966358869957 |
| 115 | 138 | 129.292549555985 | 8.70745044401522 |
| 116 | 124 | 125.713429896508 | -1.71342989650771 |
| 117 | 83 | 100.003562887558 | -17.0035628875582 |
| 118 | 100 | 108.310988013908 | -8.3109880139077 |
| 119 | 96 | 104.220695108887 | -8.22069510888707 |
| 120 | 98 | 97.7493086649663 | 0.250691335033650 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 84.9256286750589 | 72.0975511862882 | 97.7537061638295 |
| 122 | 92.3523415833215 | 76.4068273587536 | 108.297855807889 |
| 123 | 92.5906809139406 | 74.0425916736461 | 111.138770154235 |
| 124 | 99.4736936871483 | 78.6439991873445 | 120.303388186952 |
| 125 | 112.155817512138 | 89.2692902851702 | 135.042344739106 |
| 126 | 105.471674166226 | 80.6970397533869 | 130.246308579066 |
| 127 | 96.0358702563044 | 69.5058052837184 | 122.565935228890 |
| 128 | 83.3089291131015 | 55.1313020102517 | 111.486556215951 |
| 129 | 54.8755465692248 | 25.1402896418012 | 84.6108034966483 |
| 130 | 77.9884370210588 | 46.7720169382773 | 109.204857103840 |
| 131 | 80.0528127596765 | 47.4212814894648 | 112.684344029888 |
| 132 | 81.852465911647 | 47.8636238534155 | 115.841307969879 |
